Economic Crises leads to delay in Financial Reforms - Report

Pressure to support India's economy and drive growth during the global economic and financial crisis could impede efforts to put the country's fiscal house in order, a report by the government and central bank said on Monday.

"Given the current pressures to maintain growth at a reasonably high level it would not be possible to resume the fiscal correction path after the current financial turmoil," the report on the country's financial sector said.

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The report said that once the current turmoil had passed, fiscal discipline needed to be reasserted to support growth.

"For the growth momentum to be sustained, it is necessary to return to the path of fiscal prudence at both the central and state governments," the report said. The federal government's finances have suffered in the 2008/09 fiscal year that ends on March 31, after making solid gains over the past few years, as a slowing economy has hit revenues and increased spending.

The government expects the deficit to widen to 6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008/09, more than double its initial estimate. Analysts say the country's combined deficit, including state deficits and off-budget items such as fuel subsidy costs, is around 10 per cent.

The six-volume report is a comprehensive review of the country's financial system. The committee that prepared it was formed by the government and central bank in 2006, and was headed by Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan.

posted under - Indian economy updates, Crises, Economy of india, Indian Economy, Economic reforms, Indian economy blog, india finance updates
source -www.economictimes.com

MS Ahluwalia predicts economy growth at 6.5%

The Planning Commission on Tuesday said the economy will grow by 6.5 per cent during the current fiscal, much below the 7.1 per cent projected by the government last month.

"Growth this year will be around 6.5 per cent and the name of the game next year will be to repeat that performance," Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said here.

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Pointing out that additional stimulus, over and above what was announced in the Interim Budget, would be required to push growth, he said, "it will be a major achievement (to achieve growth of 6.5 per cent in 2009-10)".

Ruling out the possibility of sustained inflation in the backdrop of steps being taken by the Reserve Bank and the government, Ahluwalia said, "Low inflation gives us a lot of room in (the) next six months to use all available instruments to ensure growth picks up."

posted under - indian economy updates, economy of india, MS Ahluwalia , economic crises updates, indian economy, economics of india

Indian Govt issues INR 10,000 crores worth Oil Bonds

March 23/09 - The Special Bonds are being issued at par to Indian Oil Corporation (Rs 5812 crore), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (Rs 2144 crore) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (Rs 2038 crore) on March 23, 2009, Monday.

Investment in these special bonds by the banks and insurance companies willnot be considered as eligible as an investment in government securities for their statutory requirements.But such investment by the insurance companies will be eligible to be reckoned as investment under "other Approved Securities" category as defined under Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Investment) Regulations, 2000.

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The investment by the Provident Funds, Gratuity Funds, Superannuation Funds, etc. in these special bonds will be treated as an eligible investment under the administrative order of the Ministry of Finance. The Special Bonds will be transferable and eligible for repo transactions.

posted under - Indian Economy updates, oil sector updates, oil bonds, indian economy updates, economy of india, recession updates, indian oil PSU's Indian oil, hindustan petroleum updates

Economy may grow 6.5-7 pc in next fiscal year - (09-10)

The economy may expand between 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent in the year to March 2010, as stimulus measures are expected to revive growth, a member of Planning Commission said on Wednesday. Abhijit Sen, however, said there was need for more fiscal and monetary steps to maintain growth momentum in Asia's third largest economy hit by global slump and sluggish domestic demand.

"We have done a worst-case calculation on the basis of no effect of the stimulus and what we know currently about the world economy. On that basis, the worst case scenario is about 5 per cent growth," he said after a business conference.

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But the stimulus packages already announced were expected to ratchet up growth rate by 1.5 to 2 percentage points over and above the minimum assessment, he said. "That would take the growth rate to 6.5 to 7 per cent." Earlier, the government estimated 2008/09 growth at 7.1 per cent, but analysts have raised doubts after December quarter data showed a lower-than-expected 5.3 per cent expansion and the global economic situation worsened.

May be this prediction might be lowered down in later half of 2009 as the condition doesn't seem to improve in near future. who know's??

posted under - Indian economy blog, indian economy updates, economy of india, economic crises updates

IMF to India - more monetary steps required for fighting slowdown

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) on Wednesday advised India to initiate more monetary steps to battle the country's slowing economic growth, which the international multilateral agency expects to moderate to 6.25 per cent in the current fiscal and fall further by one percentage point in 2009-10.

With inflation softening to a six-year low of 2.43 per cent, there is scope for further easing of monetary policy, the IMF said in its review of the economy following Article IV consultations with the Indian authorities.

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"A number of (IMF) directors saw scope for further monetary easing, in (the) light of the projected decline in inflationary pressures and the need to reinforce confidence and sustain bank credit," the review said.

The IMF expects average inflation to moderate to 2 per cent in 2009-10 from about 8.8 per cent in the current fiscal. Inflation has been coming down consistently after touching a peak of 12.91 per cent in August last year.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the current fiscal has been projected at 6.25 per cent by the IMF, as against the government's forecast of 7.1 per cent.

The IMF expects the growth rate in the next fiscal (2009-10), beginning less than a fortnight from now, to fall to 5.25 per cent. As part of the annual exercise to review the economies of the member countries, the IMF's executive board had held consultations with the Indian authorities on February 6.

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While suggesting that India focus on monetary measures, the IMF cautioned that additional expenditure and more tax reliefs for fighting economic slowdown could raise public debt to unsustainable levels.

Noting that the key short-run policy objective should be to sustain liquidity and credit flows, the review said "monetary and structural policies will have to continue to carry most of the burden of adjustment".

And already the fiscal deficit of india has increased many times and government is still giving more sops to business houses and people just to get a WOW factor ahead of 15th general elections.

posted under - Economic crises updates, indian economy updates, economy of india, indian economy blog

India's Fiscal Deficit increasing further Condition Alarming

Our Country's current fiscal deficit situation is not comfortable, a top economic adviser said on Monday, while adding the economy was expected to grow at least 7 percent in the 2009/10 fiscal year.

"The fiscal deficit situation is not comfortable. It is important to go back to a comfortable fiscal situation as and when the economy starts improving," Suresh Tendulkar, chairman of Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, told a conference.

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"The FRBM Act is not going to be followed this year," he said referring to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act. Tendulkar also said lower interest rates were likely to come into play, but he did not elaborate.

Tendulkar said fiscal and monetary packages were infusing liquidity and would stimulate the economy. "The lagged effect of the stimulus packages are likely to take effect in the last quarter of this fiscal."

posted under - Indian Economy Updates, Economy of India, Indian Economy Blog, Indian Economy updates, Fiscal Deficit, Indian Fiscal Deficit
source - REUTERS

Govt hints at fiscal sops as well in vote-on-account

A day after stating that there is no constitutional bar on the interim budget announcing stimulus package, the government today said it will look at "everything" to push the industrial growth impacted by global downturn.

"This is still under formulation," Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said here when asked whether the government would unveil a package in the vote-on-account on February 16.

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Asked whether the package would contain the fiscal incentives as well, the minister said, "We will look at everything which will stimulate economy".

Home Minister P Chidambaram had said there was no constitutional bar on the government from announcing measures in the interim budget in the run-up to the general elections.

"Constitutionally there is no bar. But what the (finance) minister will do I cannot say," Chidambaram said when asked if the government can announce policy measures to stimulate economy in the vote on account.

posted under - Indian economy updates, indian economy blog, economy of india, indian policy makers, effect of crises on india
source - www.economictimes.com

China may contest India's toy import ban in WTO: Report

China is likely to drag India to the World Trade Organisation challenging the ban by New Delhi on Chinese toys, a media report said on Wednesday.

"The Chinese government is mulling a response to India's recent ban on Chinese toy imports and will probably ask the World Trade Organisation to investigate whether the ban violates WTO laws," the China Daily said quoting an anonymous source close to the issue.

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India had banned import of Chinese toys on January 23 for six months. While the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) in the Indian Commerce Ministry did not cite any reason for the ban, officials said the prohibition was necessary to protect kids from toxic hazards that may be associated with Chinese toys.

However, it is perceived here that ban by New Delhi was aimed at providing protection to the domestic industry from the Chinese manufacturers which claimed at least half of Rs 2,500 crore Indian toy market.

"It is a sign that China will be leveraging WTO rules to help protect its manufacturers from illegal trade barriers and punitive measures by its trading partners at a time when protectionism is growing amid the global economic recession," the newspaper said.

posted under - WTO updates, ban on toys, chinese toys banned, indian economy updates, ban on chinese toys
source - www.economictimes.com

Reason how infosys showed 35% YoY profit amid slowdown

Infosys (Nasdaq INFY) is second largest exporter of software and services of India and represents Indian INC's at global level thats nice stats actually recently Infosys posted a 35 percent rise in profits for 3rd quarter when compared to corresponding quarter last year, I always wondered how a company can show such rise in profits in such a weak market which is prevelant all over the world so i thought to go inside the working of the software exporter to see which manegerial decisions are backing such increase in revenues where all the other companies are reeling amid financial slowdown which started as mortagage crises in US and now has engulfed all the major economies into recession and there is prevelant danger of deflation all around the world.

i do have friends in infy too so this is not only my opinion and has inputs from infy related people too so it can't be mistaken. Almost all the indian software services companies are making bucks on projects in which clients (mostly of US) pay per person per hour basis and according to resources indian companies charge anywhere between $15 - $20 per hour per person from it's clients sitting in US . This figure is very minimal for the clients which otherwise have to pay atleast double the amount if they hire in US itself.

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most of the IT companies love to get projects where client pay on per person per hour basis including Infosys, TCS, Wipro and many other's which are serving US on 24*7 basis, other type of proects which are fixed capital projects contribute less then 20% of almost all the indian IT companies, Indian IT companies get minimum US $ 15 (pph) however they give barely $2 per hour to employee ($2 = INR100) roughly so the rest $13 goes into pocket of Indian IT companies so the profit margins for infosys are huge.

I always wondered how a company with 30/100 employees always on bench can get that profits, It may also be noted that the employees on bench are very important for indian IT cos to get new projects because they have to show to potential client about the headcount in order to get new projects, one of my friend told me that there are certain cases in which Indian IT cos show employees that are working in fixed capital projects into the time manpower projects in order to get more bucks from the foreign clients, So it is clear thatIndian IT companies pay salary of over 1 lac employees from ~70000 employees which are billed and rest 30k employees are kept as reserve for showing to potential clients that ther is adequate number of employees of various technologies required by the clients.

Move 1 by managment of Infy : they have made it mandatory for a team to work for atleast 1 saturday or sunday per month. and employee can take any one day off any time in a month but has to come on saturday or sunday on which whole team is working.
Effect - One billing day for client increased and all the employees will never go on leave for the same day of the month so in all one working day increased compulsary in the month so that company can charge the client for that saturday or sunday.

Move 2 - Now what infosys is doing presently is putting more work pressure on already billed employees (which are paid on per hour basis) to work more, recently infosys increased the working hours of employees from 8 hrs a day to 9:30 hrs(exact time changes may differ) now these employees are billed on per hour basis at a whopping amount of minimum $15 per person/hour. So add to it 1:30 hrs more per person per day and multiply it with total number of employees billed in similar manner(25*70000 extra) client has done contract for a fixed period which can,t be changed now, so the revenue per employee has increased however number of employees have not increased neither there is any fall in number of onbench employees (in order to get new projects) This might be a good manegerial decision at this time when there is economic slump and not much openings in much companies so employees of infosys can't do anything rather then working inhuman number of hours in their cubical and Infosys is making much mileage from market employment condition without thinking about the employees , It may be noted that policies of infosys have never been employee favourable and they want to suck even last drop of blood from their employees so that they get $ 15- $30 per hour more /employee from the client. Poor infoscians i guess but they have no other options in present market situation.

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also there are other cost cutting steps going on in infosys like stationary products cut etc, there is only minor difference between infosys and TCs that is only that infosys management love to call media and give one or two statements on daily basis so that brand value is mantained but i think they should care more about the employees working for them rather then giving statements to media on daily basis, I have never seen any of the other IT companies making such hype of their company, i mean TCS is even bigger then infosys in each and every aspect. we'll thats a nice publicity stunts done by infy management without giving a penny in advertisements, however i think they should do more work in reducing the high attrition rate prevelant in their company. so that was the difference between infosys and TCS, TCS (rather whole TATA group does most work rather then speaking in public on daily basis and taking everything out of employees).

And one similarity between Infosys and Fraud affected company Satyam is that in both of the companies promoters are not the owners of the companies , ie they can't do anything on their own, TCS and Wipro are placed very firmly on that aspect as the promorters own majority stake of the company and are real owners of the companies.

So I end this post here as i wanted to clear the reason why and how Infosys have managed to show 35% YoY growth of revenues. hope it's now clear to you about the working of infosys especially in this slowdown.

posted under - Infosys updates, infosys turnover, indian IT companies, Indian economy blog, indian economy updates, economy of india, Indian IT cos, Infy updates, Infosys news

Indian Economy to grow 7% this fiscal says Rangarajan

The economy is expected to grow at a moderate level of around 7 per cent in the current and the next fiscal, but would bounce back in
2010-11, noted economist and Rajya Sabha member C Rangarajan said on Thursday.

"The growth rate for 2008-09 would be about 7 per cent and for the next fiscal also it will be around 7 per cent. In 2010-11, it will pick up, depending on the global scenario," Rangarajan told reporters here.

On recovery of industrial growth to 2.4 per cent in November from a dismal negative growth of 0.3 per cent in the previous month, Rangarajan said it would be around 5 per cent for the current fiscal.

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"There may be some improvement from January onwards but over the year Industrial growth would be low... around 5 per cent," said Rangarajan, who headed the PM's Economic Advisory Council earlier.

Industrial growth stood at 3.9 per cent during April- November, 2008.

Rangarajan said the fiscal stimulus packages given by the government is adequate for the current fiscal and due to the liquidity injection into the system by the RBI, the banking system has enough fund.

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The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council Chairman Suresh Tendulkar had also said the current fiscal is likely to end with a minimum GDP growth rate of 7 per cent, down from 7.7 per cent projected earlier by PMEAC.

posted under - economy of india, indian economy trends, indian gdp , Indian economy updates, indian rupee updates
source - www.economictimes.com

Economy of India - Dubbed as unfree economies list

Both India and China have been ranked as "mostly unfree" economies by an annual "Index of Economic Freedom" that also suggests the two countries could speed development in Asia if they press on with economic reform.

The 2009 edition of the "Index of Economic Freedom", published annually by The Wall Street Journal and The Heritage Foundation, a Washington think tank, ranks India at 123 with a score of 54.4 out of possible 100 and China at 132 with 53.2 points. The index ranked 179 countries.

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"Yet, economic freedom has been improving in those countries and that trend should help speed development in the years ahead," the index editors said, noting that 18 Asian economies improved their scores in the 2009 Index while 12 lost ground.

The region's average level of economic freedom is below the world average of 59.5, but the editors predict this could change if two economic giants press on with economic reform.

Hong Kong continues to be the world's freest economy for the 15th straight year. No other economy has yet managed to surpass it. Three other economies in the Asia-Pacific region also made the Index's top 10, Singapore (second), Australia (third) and New Zealand (fifth).

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The index reflects data compiled in 10 key categories and tells a crucial story. Economic freedom is vital because it's "strongly related to good economic performance", write authors Terry Miller and Kim Holmes.

Miller is director of Heritage's Centre for International Trade and Economics, and Holmes is Heritage's vice president for foreign affairs. "Per capita incomes are much higher in jurisdictions that are economically free," they noted. Economies rated freer also perform much better in advancing human development, reducing poverty, and protecting the environment.

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The authors found strong correlations between economic freedom scores and these economic and social variables. The Asia-Pacific region proves that, even as it remains a study in contrasts. "Four of the world's 10 freest economies are in this region," the authors write, "yet most other economies in the region remain 'mostly unfree'."

The region is home to several economies, which the index classifies as "repressed". Turkmenistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar fall into this category, as does North Korea, the world's least free economy.

The 2009 index has expanded its country coverage significantly to 183 economies, although four of these could not be graded because of insufficient data. Levels of economic freedom in 10 categories were rated on a scale of 0 to 100. The higher the score, the lower the level of government interference in the marketplace.

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The 10 freedoms measured are: business freedom, trade freedom, fiscal freedom, government size, monetary freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom, property rights, freedom from corruption and labour freedom. Ratings in each category are averaged, then totalled to produce the overall Index score.

Worldwide, the average rating for economic freedom held essentially steady this year. However, as governments attempt to stave off a global recession, their meddling could well threaten economic freedom and long-term economic prosperity.

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"There is a real possibility that the scores in this edition might represent the historical high point for economic freedom in the world," the authors warn. Of the 179 economies ranked (the most ever), only seven are classified as "free" (a score of 80 or higher).

Another 23 are classified as "mostly free" (70-79.9). Most of the economies ranked - 120 - are either classified as "moderately free" (60-60.9) or "mostly unfree" (50-50.9). Twenty-nine economies are classified as "repressed", with total freedom scores below 50 per cent.

posted under - Economy of India, Indian Economy blog, Indian Economy updates, Asian Economies updates, india economy updates
source - www.economictimes.com

Rupee turns stronger gains 52 paise v/s US $

The rupee had fallen to a one-month low of 49.28 against the dollar in early trade after the scandal in India's fourth-largest software exporter Satyam Computer sparked fears about capital outflows.

Resuming weaker at 49.20/21 a dollar from its previous close of 48.80/81 a dollar, the rupee later fluctuated between 48.28 and 49.28 during the day, partly influenced by movements in local stocks.

Dealers at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex) market said foreign and private sector banks heavily sold dollars in the latter part of the day amid reports that foreign investments may not be affected in the aftermath of the country's biggest corporate fraud. Leading fund managers reportedly ruled out the possibility of any capital outflow because of the Satyam scandal.

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Despite the dollar's firmness against major world currencies in global markets, they said a sudden bout of dollar sales led a strong recovery in the rupee, which was under pressure in early trade due to weakness in equity markets.

The rupee also drew support from the absence of any dollar demand from oil refiners during the day.

posted under - economy of india, indian economy blog, indian economy updates, inr updates, inr v/s US $

Indian Government gives green signal to 34 FDI proposals

The government has cleared 34 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) proposals worth about Rs 1,615 crore of firms like Mahindra and Mahindra, Sumitomo Corporation, and Barwah International from Qatar.

The largest investment proposals are in urban development, by HBS Realtors Mumbai, which intends to invest Rs 300 crore to convert the operating company into a operating-cum-holding company and Qatar-based Barwa International, which would invest Rs 400 crore.

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Besides, Sumitomo Corporation from Japan would invest Rs 160 crore, but its proposal would be subject to norms laid down in Press Note one, the government said.

Meanwhile, another proposal from Universal Biofuels for an investment of Rs 200 crore was cleared, and it would incorporate and make downstream investment
in subsidiaries and also issue and allot equity.

posted under - Indian economy updates, economy of india, indian govt steps, indian economy blog, economy of india, indian FDI updates.

Indian Exports fell by 1.6% in December 2008

Exports fell for the third straight month, posting a negative growth of 1.6 per cent in December 2008 as demand from key markets
continued to remain sluggish.

Revenue from exports during the month under review stood at 11.2 bn from 11.3 bn in the year ago period, an official said.

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Exports had fallen over 12 per cent in October, the first decline in five years, and dropped 9.9 per cent in November.

Steel, textile, gems and jewellery and handicrafts were an area of concern and were the worse hit as global demand for steel, textile fell due to ongoing crises in major market for indian exports - US.

posted under - Indian exports, indian economy updates, economy of india, economic crises updates, effect of crises on India, indian exports updates

Reserve Bank to cut Interest rates even more

Reserve Bank of India ( RBI) could cut interest rates by another 150 basis points by mid-2009 as authorities fight to prop up sagging growth, but the central Rates bank is unlikely to seek zero rates like the United States and Japan even as deflation rears its head.

The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates on Friday for the fourth time since the global financial crisis blew up in September, taking the total reduction in its key lending rate or the repo rate to 350 points. It now stands at 5.50 percent.

Other central banks have slashed rates heavily too to fight off the deepest global financial crisis in decades. The US Federal Reserve and Japan have cut their rates close to zero, sparking debate on how far central banks will have to go to revive their economies.


posted under - RBI updates, Reserve Bank of India, Indian Interest Rates, Indian Economy, Economy under recession, Indian Economy updates
source- www.economictimes.com

Indian Economy - Most Optimistic Economy of World

India has regained top slot in optimism among privately held businesses for 2009. While optimism amongst privately held businesses (PHBs) around
the world slumped by 56% over the last 12 months, pushing the Grant Thornton International optimism/pessimism barometer to a record negative balance of -16% compared to +40%, this time last year.

Despite raging pessimism, the survey found that PHBs from 11 countries remained optimistic about the outlook for their economies, with India leading this group (+83%), and Botswana (+81%) with Brazil (+50%) also emerging on the top. Japan (-85%) and Spain (-65%) were the most pessimistic.

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It is the first time that pessimists have outweighed optimists about the outlook for their economy since the research began in the current form in 2003 but this year's International Business Report
, which surveyed senior executives from over 7,000 PHBs across 36 economies, also shows an overwhelming consensus that falling consumer demand is the biggest threat to PHB businesses.

There are also some startling differences in attitude towards the economic crisis between the mature and emerging economies. Of the four largest trading nations, PHBs in the United States and mainland China, who together contribute over 32% of global GDP1, scored their optimism at -34% in the United States and +30% in Mainland China.

Similarly, Japan and India (collectively contributing over 11% of global GDP) scored their optimism at -85% and +83% respectively.

"These polarised results suggest that despite the current slowdown, there are still pockets of hope in the global marketplace for PHBs," explained Vishesh Chandiok, National Managing Partner – Grant Thornton India.

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"Their macro view of the world economic stage explains the overall slump in optimism but there are still signs of optimism in some economies and also clear signs that PHBs, while preparing for the downturn, are also seeking to leverage on opportunities this could bring," Mr Chandiok added.

When asked to identify the most significant factors causing most concern for their business, PHBs in 33 out of the 36 economies cited a fall in consumer demand, while citing a shortage of business credit as a secondary concern.

posted under - Indian Economy Updates, Economy of India, India, Asian Economies, optimistic economy of world, indian business updates, economy, india economy
source - www.economictimes.com

US $ v/s rs daily updates - January 2009

Indian economy trends are very important for those who are into economic analysis in India, Indian National rupee popularly known as INR in international market is following a downward trend due to global financial turbulance. As volume of US dollars (USD) in international markets is on a decline so the value of US $ is growing up, well indian IT industrycan feel better to some extent and is the only industry which would be getting a plus from current market scenario.

The post would include (US$ v/$ rupee) daily trends the rate shown of Indian rupee would be as displayed at time of stock markets closure(mainly BSE and NSE) you can also see daily Stock market live rates and closing rates.

INR(Indian National rupee) v/s US$ November trends/updates are as follows:

format for display of rs v/s $ would be in following order:

(date | RS v/s $ rate Daily trends updates | Remarks with respect to US $)


28/1/2009 | 48.85 | Up^0.34 | Rupee (INR) grew stronger by 34 paise wrto US $

22/1/2009 | 48.56 | - | Rupee (INR) fell weaker by - paise wrto US $

21/1/2009 | 48.56 | Down(0.00) | Rupee (INR) fell weaker by - paise wrto US $

20/1/2009 | 48.56 | Up^0.21 | Rupee (INR) grew stronger by 21 paise wrto US $

19/1/2009 | 48.77 | Up^0.31 | Rupee (INR) grew stronger by 38 paise wrto US $

16/1/2009 | 49.08 | Down(0.38) | Rupee (INR) fell weaker by 38 paise wrto US $

15/1/2009 | 48.70 | Up^0.10 | Rupee (INR) grew stronger by 10 paise wrto US $

9/1/2009 | 48.61 | Up^0.07 | Rupee (INR) grew stronger by 7 paise wrto US $

7/1/2009 | 48.68 | Down(0.31) | Rupee (INR) fell weaker by 31 paise wrto US $

2/1/2009 | 48.73 | Down(0.23) | Rupee (INR) fell weaker by 23 paise wrto US $

1/1/2009 | 48.50 | Up^0.05 | Rupee (INR) grew stronger by 5 paise wrto US $

Economy requires further monetary action - MS Ahluwalia

The deputy chairman of planning commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia has indicated further changes in the monetary policy as part of
second stimulus package.

"With economy growing below potential and inflation on its way down, there is a scope for further monetary action," Montek Singh Ahluwalia told reporters at the planning commission.

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Mr Ahluwalia further added that further increasing expenditures may not be a thrust area for the government. "The world economy is expected to get worse next year. We have proposed a stimulus package for this year and next year. Barring this,
we are not proposing any new expenditure for this fiscal."

The second stimulus package is likely to come out in next few days. However, when asked about the date on which the package would be announced, Mr. Ahluwalia declined to specify any particular date but said that the government was continuously watching the situation and it would not hesitate to take any further steps.


source - www.economictimes.com

Scope for further rate cuts - MS Ahluwalia

With the inflation rate almost halving from the peak levels in August and economic growth slackening, Planning Commission Deputy
Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia on Monday said that there is further scope for the RBI to cut lending rates.

"It is clear at the moment that the economy is growing below its potential and inflation is definitely on its way down. And these factors would suggest that there is a scope (for easing monetary policy)," Ahluwalia told reporters here.

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RBI Governor D Subbarao today met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at his residence, adding to the speculation that RBI might signal further cut in interest rates to boost economic growth which is impacted by the global crisis.

The apex bank had already injected Rs 3,00,000 crore into the system slashing the policy and reserve ratio rates to inject funds into the cash strapped economy.

Responding to the steps taken by the RBI, several banks including the largest lender SBI have cut lending and borrowing rates.

State-owned banks like the Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda and Dena Bank today reduced their benchmark lending rates by up to 75 basis points.

The Government, in its Mid-year review of the economy presented in Parliament recently said there was considerable scope for monetary policy easing over the next 6-12 months to offset the global increase in demand for money that is being transmitted to India.

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Ahluwalia said, "We should be watching the situation carefully and we should not hesitate to take further steps. These matters are being discussed...our prospects for inflation justify taking a stronger monetary position."

Inflation which had peaked to 12.91 per cent in August came down to 6.61 per cent in December.

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-source - www.economictimes.com

Asian Economies to be affected more in 2009

Asia-Pacific economies are in for a tough 2009. The region's fundamentals were solid in the first half of 2008, giving weight to the idea of global decoupling. This belief has been proven wrong, and no economy now seems immune from the US-led downturn.

Growth is expected to decelerate sharply in the first half of 2009, as all engines run out of steam. Those economies already in recession will continue to see harsh conditions through much of the year, warns Moody's Economy.com.

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Recent key indicators show the region has been struck hard by the global financial crisis. Although the turmoil began in mid-2007, much of the region did not begin to feel the pinch until a year later; increasingly complex economic links meant a long lag before the full scope was seen.
"As the US and European economies remain in dire shape, the worst for the Asia-Pacific is still ahead. Based on a forecast that the US will begin to recover in late 2009, the Asia-Pacific slowdown may end shortly after, though a solid rebound is not expected until 2010," said Sherman Chan, economist at Moody's Economy.com.

The global downturn hurts the Asia-Pacific region most immediately via trade. The US and EU directly account for a significant proportion of the region's exports. Meanwhile, still-turbulent credit markets remain a key risk to trade finance; shipments are held back as banks refuse to honor letters of credit.

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The region's manufacturing outlook depends largely on external demand, which is expected to remain subdued for much of 2009. Industrial production across Asia has been on a downward trend since the start of 2008, and began to contract in the final quarter. Economies concentrating in tech production were among the hardest hit, as discretionary items were the first to experience a slump in demand.

Although recent fiscal stimulus measures have focused on infrastructure development, which will support the industrial sectors, benefits will not be realised instantly. Hence, industrial output may further contract in early 2009.

"With the outlook gloomy and a bottom yet to be seen, investment is expected to be subdued through 2009. Business confidence is weak. Access to credit is still a concern, while the outlook of corporate earnings remains downbeat. Firms will continue to hoard capital in coming months. Companies will be extremely cautious with expansion plans, and new startups will likely be put on hold. Foreign direct investment is expected to moderate in 2009, a result of risk aversion and a preference for liquidity. Risk aversion is likely to see portfolio capital outflows continue during the first half of 2009, keeping Asian stock markets depressed," Moody's Economy.com said it a report.

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As the global downturn was triggered by chaos in the financial markets, the financial sector has been most aggressive in reducing headcounts to deal with shrinking balance sheets and a gloomy business outlook. Moreover, it will be difficult, even with fiscal stimulus, to absorb this group of recently unemployed people because of the skills mismatch.

Massive infrastructure projects announced by several governments will support construction work, but offer little help to white-collar workers. In any case, government rescue policies will not take immediate effect, meaning no upside to the overall unemployment situation may be seen before mid-2009.

Nearly all Asia-Pacific governments have announced fiscal stimulus measures. By far the largest was China's 4 trillion yuan package, equivalent to about 16% of GDP. Most of the announced stimulus plans take similar form, with infrastructure development a clear favourite, as it offers long-term economic benefits. With infrastructure needs chronic in emerging economies, countries may now improve their capital stock while supporting economic activity.

All central banks across the region will continue to loosen monetary policy. With growth momentum easing, authorities have attempted to soothe the debt burdens of households and businesses, and also encourage lending.

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