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Friday, July 10, 2009

INR slips to 8 week low

The rupee weakened in afternoon trade towards eight-week lows on Friday tracking the domestic share market which dropped more than 2 percent and on sharp overseas gains in the dollar versus majors.(read budget highlights).

The dollar index, a gauge of the U.S. unit's performance against majors, was up 0.7 percent.

FII'S have bought about $1 billion of stocks so far this month, taking net inflows in 2009 to nearly $6 billion, a key factor in its rise from a record low of 52.2 in March.

In the currency futures market, the most traded near-month contract on the National Stock Exchange and MCX-SX were quoting at 48.9350 and 48.93 respectively, with the total traded volume on the two exchanges at about $1.26 billion.

Agriculture contribution in GDP declines at 16.6 perc

India's agriculture sector has accounted for only 16.6 per cent of its gross domestic product so far this plan period (2007-12) despite record production of farm commodities in the 2007-08 season, according to the latest government estimate.

The share of the farm sector in the GDP is down to 16.6 per cent from a whopping 46.3 per cent during the First Plan period (1951-56), according to the data presented by Minister of State for Agriculture K V Thomas in a written reply in the Rajya Sabha today.

The sector contributed 17.8 per cent to the overall GDP in the last Plan period (2002-07), The declining share of the sector in the GDP can be a major cause of concern for policy makers this year as the forecast of a "below-normal monsoon" during the on-going Kharif has cast a gloom on production.

Moreover, the dependence on farming has not dipped that dramatically. About 65 per cent of the world's second-most populous nation still depends upon farming for livelihood.

Even though the country has witnessed record foodgrain production of 230.78 million tonnes in the 2007-08 season followed by another year of bumper output of the grains at 229.85 million tonnes, the share of the sector in the GDP has not shown any improvement.

courtesy - economictimes

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Indian rupee at 2 week low thanks to FII for taking out USD from indian markets

Indian National Rupee or poupularly known as INR touched two week low today at 48.88 / US $ since foreign investor's took out much investment which they made in indian markets over past couple of months due to which SENSEX ans Nifty also closed down today(read full report).

The details about the weak rupee is as follows (ovser past 2 days) :

The partially convertible rupee ended at 48.88/89 per dollar, 0.9 per cent below Tuesday's close of 48.45/46 per dollar. It is down 2 per cent so far this week. It hit a low of 48.9450 in intraday deals.

One-month offshore non-deliverable forwards were quoting at 48.97/49.07 per dollar in late Indian trade.

The dollar was steady while the yen climbed on Wednesday as uncertainty about the global economic outlook reined in investor risk-taking.

According to barclay's indian rupee will trade between 48.5 to 49.5 against a single US dollar.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Govt of India awaits more then half of fiscal deficit from disputes

Believe it or not the government is yet to receive over Rs one trillion in taxes from corporate and other entities and add to it other arrears worth about Rs 47,000 crore, the total outstanding equals more than half of the total revenue deficit this year.

Also read
Budget 2009-10 highlights

At about Rs 150,000 crore, the unrealised tax and non-tax revenue is 53 per cent of the total revenue deficit of over Rs 282,000 crore projected by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in his Budget for 2009-10.

The arrears outstanding at the end of reporting year 2007 -08 pertain to a period of up to ten years or more and also include interests from state governments and PSUs.

In totality, the arrears that the government is still awaiting are held up in litigation, or are due for some other reasons. If realised, they could have substantially reduced the Centre's borrowings, pegged at over Rs 4,00,000 crore for the current fiscal.

Bulk of the tax arrears is caught under disputes and amounts to over Rs 64,000 crore, while the amounts not under dispute total at about Rs 40,000 crore also include cases pending for adjudication.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Economic Estimates assumed for Budget 2009-10

For Reading full Finance Budget highlights (click here)


* Total receipts seen at 10.21 trillion rupees

* Revenue receipts seen at 6.14 trillion rupees

* Capital receipts seen at 4.06 trillion rupees

* Borrowings and other liabilities seen at 4.01 trillion rupees

* Total expenditure seen at 10.21 trillion rupees

* Plan expenditure seen at 3.25 trillion rupees

* Non-plan expenditure seen at 6.96 trillion rupees

* Fiscal deficit seen at 4.01 trillion rupees, or 6.8 percent of GDP

* Revenue deficit seen at 2.83 trillion rupees, or 4.8 percent of GDP

Fiscal deficit reaches alarming high at 6.8 percent of GDP

Indian economy's fiscal deficit is projected to widen to an 18-year high of 6.8 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal as the government continues to provide stimulus to the economy, necessitating higher market borrowings at around Rs 4 lakh crore.

Also read -
Union Budget 2009-10 highlights

With states also allowed to borrow from markets even if their fiscal deficit increases to 4 per cent of their GDP against the current limit of 3.5 per cent, the combined fiscal deficit of India will easily touch the double-digit mark.

However, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee committed to return to fiscal consolidation part at the earliest, even as the 13th Finance Commission is seized of the issue of setting up new targets for fiscal deficit.

"I intend to... return to the FRBM target for fiscal deficit at the earliest and as soon as the negative effects of the global crisis on the Indian economy have been overcome," he said.

Analysts noted that fiscal deficit at 6.8 per cent is within the expectation and they will wait for the Finance Commission report likely in October to comment further.

Also read -
Union Budget 2009-10 highlights

Fiscal deficit is projected to widen against 5.5 per cent expected in the Interim Budget for 2009-10 and 6.2 per cent witnessed in 2008-09 as the Centre's expenditure expanded to an all-time high of over Rs 10 lakh crore and tax income taking a hit due to stimulus packages.

FBT and Commodity transaction tax abolished

Finally Bowing to the long standing demand of India Inc, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee has abolished the fringe benefit tax and commodity transaction tax. in union budget 2009 - 10 which he presented today in parliament (see budget highlights)

However, Minimum Allocation Tax (MAT) on book profits has been increased from 10 percent to 15 percent, but with a provision of carrying forward the tax credit on MAT to 10 years from the current seven years.

Union Finance budget 2009-10 highlights

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee presented union finance budget for fiscal year 2009-10 and looks like BSE is not happy with the budget as it nosedived by over 850 pts, This year's budget is rather short of reforms, major highlights of the budget are as follows :

* Govt plans to bring back economy to high growth of 9%

* GDP growth dipped to 6.7% in FY'09

* FM to make pre-budget talks with state FMs annual affair

* Fiscal deficit up from 2.7% to 6.8% of GDP

* Return to fiscal prudence at the earliest

* 'Aam admi' is focus of all programmes and schemes.

* IT exemption limit raised; Rs 15,000 for Sr.citizens .

* Limit raised by Rs 10,000 for tax payers, including women

* 10% surcharge on personal income tax scrapped

* Fringe Benefit Tax abolished

* No change in corporate tax

* Defence gets Rs 1,41,703 cr, up 34%

* Total fiscal stimulus in 2008-09 amounts to Rs 1,86,000 cr

* IIFCL to evolve mechanism for increased funding of infra

* IIFCL to re-finance commercial bank loans up to 60 per cent in critical projects through PPP to tune of Rs 1,00,000 cr

* Allocations for highways being stepped up by 23 per cent

* Funds for housing, amenities for urban poor up Rs 3,973 cr

* Funds for JN Urban Renewal Mission up 87% to Rs 12,887 cr

* Assistance for storm-water drainage project up by Rs 300 cr

* Farm credit target up at Rs 3,25,000 cr from Rs 2,87,000 cr

* Interest rates incentive to farmers to repay loans on time

* Additional Rs 1,000 crore for accelerated irrigation scheme

* Export Credit Guarantee scheme extended till March 2010 * 2% interest subvention (IS) scheme extended till March 2010

* IS scheme to cover 7 job-oriented sectors, including textile, handicrafts and handlooms.

* Commodity Transaction Tax abolished

* New pension system trust exempted from STT; DDT

* Minimum Alternate Tax hiked to 15% from 10%

* Tax holiday on petro sector extended to natural gas

* 100% tax deduction on political donation

* Stimulus for print media for another six months

* Fertiliser subsidy to be nutrient-based, not price

* Expert Grp to form viable pricing for imported petro goods

* Banks and insurance firms to remain in public sector

* Rs 100 cr one-time grant to expand banks in unbanked areas

* Govt committed to provide Rs 100 a day as wages under NREGA

* Allocation of Rs 39,100 cr to be made for NREGA

* NREGA coverage increased to 4.74 crore households in FY'09

* Work National Food Security scheme has begun

* Allocation for Bharat Nirman being raised by 45 per cent

* Rs 2,000 cr rural housing fund under National Housing Bank

* Mission for female literacy with focus on minorities, SC/ST

* 50% of all rural women to be brought into SHG programmes

* Full interest subsidy for students in select institutions

* Five lakh students to benefit

* Modernisation of national exployment exchanges

* Action for social security to unorganised sector workers

* New pension benefits for 12 lakh jawans and JCOs from July

* One lakh dwelling units for paramilitary forces personnel

* Unique Identification Card to citizens in 12-18 months

* Provision of Rs 120 crore for UIC project

* Rs 2,113 crore allocated for IITs and new IITs

* Rs 3472 cr for Commonwealth Games from Rs 2112 cr

* Customs, excise and service tax base rates unchanged

* For Indira Awas Yojana, allocation increased 63%

* IT returns to be made simpler

* 8 missions being launched under Plan on climate change

* Allocation for market development assistance scheme up 148%

* Allocation for Rural Health Mission raised by Rs 257 cr above interim budget

* Rs 500 cr for rehabilitation of Sri Lankan Tamils

* Rs 1,000 cr for infrastructure in cyclone-hit area in WB

* Total expenditure crosses Rs 10 lakh cr for first time

* Share of direct taxes in revenue increased to 56% in FY'09

Sunday, July 5, 2009

India's business in gulf shrinks by 20 percent

Indian companies with interest in the Gulf have witnessed their business in the region decline by 20 percent.

Also, direct and indirect subsidies to domestic companies there have made it more difficult for Indian businesses to offset their losses, FICCI said in a statement.

This may be due several Gulf states still lacked transparency in trade promotion policies. Bureaucratic hurdles and red tape were two other areas of concern for Indian businesses.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), despite being hard hit by the slowdown, followed by Oman, is the most-preferred investment destination for Indian businesses, FICCI said.