India's Forex reserves in trouble - Goldman Sachs

Decline in capital inflows as a result of ongoing global financial turmoil may see India's foreign exchange reserves depleting by $ 39 billion during 2008-09, says a report by global banker Goldman Sachs.

also read : US recession - Why it happened

India's foreign exchange reserves, which were around $ 310 billion in March 2008, have been declining steadily and may go down to $ 271 by the close of current financial years, the report said.

The decline would mainly be on account of rising current account deficit, it said, adding "capital inflows fell to $ 13.2 billion (in Q1 2008-09) from $ 17.3 billion in Q1 of 2007-08 and $ 25.4 billion in the previous quarter (Jan-March)."

As per the latest RBI data, the country's foreign exchange reserves declined to $ 292 billion as on September 19, 2008, which can be attributed to higher trade deficit and declining portfolio investment.

Pointing out that the current account deficit will remain high during the year, the Goldman Sachs report said, "it would be a bigger concern with oil at $ 150 a barrel than at current prices."


also read : US recession - Why it happened

It further added, "with oil prices coming off substantially, one of the biggest threats to the current account deficit has been alleviated."

Even in the event of a sudden stop in capital flows, the report said, country's buffer of forex reserves would be sufficient to fund the current account and external debt payments.

At $ 271 billion in March 2009, the report said, the country would have sufficient reserves to meet 10.3 months of import bill, down from 15 months of imports in March 2008.


also read : US recession - Why it happened


.

Tata Group is world's sixth most reputed business group

Diversified Indian conglomerate Tata group has emerged as the world's sixth most reputed company, but the country's most valued firm Reliance Industries failed to make the grade.Tata group leapfrogged over 100 positions from last year's 124th rank in the annual Global 200: The World's Best Corporate Reputations list, compiled by US-based Reputation Institute.

The global list, which includes 10 other Indian companies, has been topped by Japanese auto maker Toyota, followed by US-based internet search giant Google, Sweden's Ikea, Italy's Ferrero and another American firm Johnson & Johnson.
The Ratan Tata-led group is joined by India's second largest software exporter Infosys Technologies in the Top-50 league at 14th position.


However, at least nine other Indian firms, which were among 600 companies considered in a survey to prepare the list, could not make it to the final 200. These firms include Mukesh Ambani-led RIL, the country's biggest by revenue among private sector firms and overall largest in terms of market value.


Other Indian companies that were considered for the list, but failed to make the cut include the biggest private sector lender ICICI Bank, top private and public sector telecom firms Bharti Airtel and BSNL, IT giant Wipro, Birla group's Grasim Industries, tobacco-to-consumer goods conglomerate ITC as well as two state-run firms -- oil refining and marketing major BPCL and national carrier Air India Ltd.


While releasing its latest Global Pulse report, Reputation Institute said that Tata group and Air India have the strongest and weakest corporate reputations respectively among the companies from India. Besides Tata and Infosys, other firms that made to the top 200 list include, Maruti Udyog (Suzuki) Ltd, State Bank of India, Hindustan Lever Ltd, Hero Honda Motors, Life Insurance Corp of India, Bajaj Auto, ONGC, Mahindra and Mahindra and Indian Oil Corp.


Both Tata and Infosys have gained over 100 spots each to join the top tier of global companies.India's Tata Group and Infosys Technologies saw their reputations increase by over 8 points in 2008, and catapulted over 100 spots in the ranking to join the top tier of global companies in 2008, in recognition of their growing role among the world's business elite," the report said.


However, the highest jump in ranking has been seen by China's Faw Group (ranked 41st with an improvement of 178 spots), followed by Norway's Coop, Canada's Sobey's and Japan's AEON, all of which have gained over 100 spots.


Maruti, the country's biggest car maker, has been ranked at 77th, SBI at 107th, HLL (now renamed as HUL) at 131st, Hero Honda at 147th, LIC at 161st, Bajaj Auto at 169th, ONGC at 186th , M&M at 191s and IOC at 199th position.


Globally, food and beverage giant PepsiCo, headed by a person of Indian origin Indra Nooyi, has been ranked 100th.
Tatas are ranked higher than companies like Walt Disney, Marks and Spencers, Xerox, Colgate-Palmolive, Sony, Honda, General Electric (GE), all of which are in the top-50.


The survey was conducted on 600 largest companies from 27 countries, out of which 200 were selected for the list. Toyota earned the highest ranking with a score of 86.53, followed by Google with 85.23 points.


Reputation Institute said that all the 200 companies earned scores higher than the global mean of 64.2 points, but despite earnings better-than-global average, the companies ranked 51-200 have significantly weaker reputations than the top tier companies.

also read : effect of increase in oil prices on indian economy

Inflation above 8% mark - government helpless

Inflation touched 8% mark for first time in one year and government has said that it is helpless and inflation is going out of government control.

However inflation has now become a global problem and all the developing as well as developed countries are facing it.

Governments are pretending to respond. In the UK, Mr. Gordon Brown wants to assemble experts to debate solutions. The Indian finance minister says that western nations are diverting land for producing expensive bio-fuels to replace the expensive crude oil. Surely, that is part of the problem. But that does not explain the jump in the price of rice. Rice is not diverted to bio-fuel production.


In India, the response has been to reduce import duties, impose export caps and accuse manufacturers and distributors of collusion and cartel-like behaviour. Different ministers speak in different voices. Together, these pronouncements do not constitute a policy whole.
In simple terms, prices reflect the balance of supply and demand of something. When prices go up, it is a reflection – and not a consequence – of supply going down or of demand going up or both. When it happens for just one or few commodities, it is possible to blame middle-men of hoarding or manufacturers of cartel-like behaviour. When it happens in many commodities, it is futile to blame one industry or a few producers.


Usually, the source lies in some policy measures and their implementation. To make it clear, we are not dismissing the importance of factors like climate change, diversion of land for production of bio-fuels and more importantly, stagnation or even outright decline in agricultural productivity in countries like India and China. Again, they explain inflation in food and agriculture commodities. These factors do not explain inflation in crude oil and copper, for example.


If we have to identify a single or the most important explanation for the recent development in prices of many commodities, the answer lies in examining the behaviour of global central banks.
Of course, in any broad-brush analysis or conclusions, there is the risk that we miss the exceptions who behaved differently and correctly. For example, within the constraints imposed by the political system, Reserve Bank of India has done a very good job of trying to shield the Indian economy from the cycles of boom and bust. Similarly, if the Australian and New Zealand economies still face the risk of boom and bust, it is not because of their central banks but in spite of their best efforts.


The bulk of the blame has to be assigned to the American Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China. In the case of China as in the case of India and in many other developing countries, the central bank is not independent. It is subject to political influence. The Federal Reserve Board of America is, in some ways, a similar predicament. It is subject to the oversight and pulls and pressures of the democratically elected Congress members. Further, since it was founded by banks actually, it ends up coming to the rescue of banks sometimes to the detriment of the public.


In 2001-2003, it cut the Federal funds rate to 1.0%. It thus rescued the economy from the collapse of the technology bubble in 2000. Thus, it replaced the stock market bubble with a housing bubble. When the housing bubble appeared to be weakening, it refused to tighten regulations and allowed it to continue. Too many loans were made to people who should not have been lent. That is the root cause of the present problem.


In order to address the resulting loan defaults, stress on banks and their balance sheets, the Federal Reserve has allowed banks to borrow at cheap rates from it. Money is available to banks in the open market but at higher cost. Some of the banks might not have survived. But, that would have also left a lesson for other banks that they would not have forgotten for a long time. Excessive risk-taking would have been curbed. Instead, the cheap money is perhaps being channelled into speculation on commodities prices. After all, banks are not going to create more mortgage loans at least for quite some time.


Somewhat different has been the behaviour of China but it achieves the same result. China has kept its currency cheap. Keeping the currency cheap requires interest rates to remain low, in comparison to other countries but also in relation to economic growth. China has done that. Low interest rates means capital is plenty. So, capital-intensive growth has flourished. That has placed tremendous demand on resources worldwide such as crude oil, coal, steel and other industrial metals. It continues to import rising quantities of iron ore, copper and crude oil. Incidentally, it has also led to China supporting many tyrannical regimes in Africa including that of Zimbabwe. Recently, it sent a shipment of arms to Zimbabwe but faced an avalanche of protest and had to recall that shipment.


Perhaps, it is possible that American banks know that there won’t be any change in China’s demand for commodities in the near future, at least until the end of the Olympics. China may be reluctant to change course fearing unknown and uncertain consequences. If so, it argues for further rise in the price of commodities. Both their behaviour and bets might be feeding off each other. That is not good news for the rest of the world.


After all, we cannot influence the Federal Reserve. So, how should policymakers respond? Unfortunately, the answer is that they should respond differently from what they have done until now. Banning exports of agricultural commodities exposes the hollowness of farmer-friendly policies. Farmers should be allowed, with appropriate guidance, to sell to the highest bidder – local or global – and derive the maximum gains from the global shortage. Such a price signal would also encourage productivity improvement in farmland and hence boost crop production. More land would be brought under cultivation.


At the same time, poor households – rural or urban – could be directly subsidised with cash transfer to be able to pay the higher price.
The same principle can be extended to the price of hydrocarbon products such as petrol, cooking gas, diesel and kerosene. Consumers and producers should receive the price signal. Without that, their respective behaviours would not change and shortages or glut would persist.
At the same time, since supply of food and other commodities would take time to respond to price signals, central banks should be allowed to restrain demand in the short-run with tight monetary policy. That means higher cash reserve ratio or higher interest rates or both. That might be unpopular or politically unacceptable. But, effective medicines never taste sweet. Only placebos do.



The chances of such sound policies being pursued are close to nil particularly as many democratic governments, including India, approach elections soon. Authoritarian governments do not care much for public opinion.
Given such a low chance for sound economic decision-making, prospects for a sustained decline in inflation should be judged remote. That is not good news as it is a stealth tax on the public and erodes their purchasing power. Consequently, it reduces affordability for many assets. As demand drops, inflation affects revenues for companies and squeezes margins through cost pressures. That does not augur well for the stock market.



The stock market in India has performed well in recent times. Many other global markets have staged a similar recovery. That is due to misplaced optimism on the American economy. As discussed above, right policies would be missing and hence the anticipated quick economic turnaround in America would be elusive. Consequently, risky assets globally would retrace their recent gains. Therefore, Indian stocks would fail to build on their recent gains. On the other hand, the likelihood of continued high global and local inflation would result in a resumption of the uptrend in gold price that has been recently disrupted. Therefore, investors who do not expect inflation to recede know exactly what they should be selling and what they should be buying.

Infrastructure Sector, Finance Sector Updates | Indian Economy Updates | India Economic News

Indian Economy Latest Updates :

April 2008 Infrastructure Sector Latest Updates:

• Tata's Nano model for apparel may see $ 3bn take rural roads - (19/4/2008)
• Greaves Cotton inks deal with German co - (19/4/2008)
• Arunachal Pradesh set to have world-class infrastructure - (17/4/2008)
• Trucking sector may attract Rs 2 tn investments by 2010 - (17/4/2008)
• Policy on greenfield airports soon: Patel - (17/4/2008)
• 3i beats target to raise $1.2 bn for India Infrastructure Fund - (17/4/2008)
• Korean cos keen to set up hub in Haryana - (16/4/2008)
• World's 2nd discovery park to come up in India - (15/4/2008)
• MMTC to set up chain of warehouses, gems, jewellery SEZ - (14/4/2008)
• GVK may spin off energy business into separate co - (14/4/2008)
• India-Oman plan JV for core projects - (14/4/2008)
• Indus to buy Rs 206 crore equity in Uppal SEZs - (14/4/2008)
• Govt expects exports from SEZs to touch Rs 125,000 cr in FY'09 - (11/4/2008)
• J & K govt spends Rs 15 crore on road upgradation project - (11/4/2008)
• Govt to set up regulator for construction industry - (10/4/2008)
• Delhi govt approves 3-level grade separator on NH-4 - (8/4/2008)
• Mantri, IL&FS to develop IT SEZ at Nagpur - (7/4/2008)
• No takers for Rs 4,000-cr government aid
• Nagaland signs 2 pacts with Korean co
• Core sector grows by 8.7% in February
• Chopper Class: Govt plans airports for helicopters
• Green tilt in energy balance
• Nagarjuna, Maytas Infra to develop Karnataka airports
• IVRCL bags orders worth Rs 484 cr
• India set to sign transport project agreement with Myanmar

Indian Economy - Finance Updates April 2008 :

• PE deals fall apart in M&A Street
• MBGB exceeds Rs 2 cr business per employee target: CMD
• Azad takes up sop exemption issue with PM
• CRR hike would put upward pressure on interest rates: PHDCCI
• Punjab, Haryana project Rs 650 cr loss due to CST cut
• J&K to sanction Rs 207 lakh subsidies to 32 industrial units
• FDI outflow doubles to $18 bn during Apr-Dec
• Home, retail loan rates likely to rise following CRR hike
• Bankers to wait till RBI policy before taking call on rates
• RBI hikes CRR by 0.5 per cent to control inflation
• India's FY-08 indirect tax receipts at Rs 2.79 tn
• FIIs cut exposure in Indian equity markets
• US Eximbank approves $2.2 billion program for India
• I&B ministry gets Rs 1,910 crore for the current fiscal
• A repo rate hike by RBI likely, says BoI chief
• Fertiliser subsidy bill to rise to Rs 1 lakh crore: Paswan
• Haryana collects Rs 10,000 crore as taxes last fiscal
• Banks in a spot as govt sits on crop-loan interest subsidies
• Capital goods sector earnings may slowdown in Q4: Analysts
• Banks board slow coach as credit growth slips to 24% in 2007-08
• Coal India pays Rs 1,705.42 cr dividend to govt
• Direct tax collections surpass target in West Bengal region
• Overseas borrowings drop to less than $1 bn in February - (9/4/2008)
• NABARD Focus paper estimate credit flow of Rs.37,546 crores - (8/4/2008)
• Finance Ministry approves new Rs 50,000 cr APDRP scheme - (8/4/2008)
• Foreign fund restrictions to boomerang: Raghuram panel
• Grant Rs 5,000 cr for setting up SEZs in JK: Assocham
• CRR hike may leave banks with little to lend
• 10 lakh backward class families benefit from NBCFDC loans
• JPMorgan's John Coyle joins Permira
• Indian investors get more room to diversify abroad
• WB, ADB may lend directly to urban bodies
• India raises overseas investment limit for funds
• 'India needs $500 nn investment to sustain growth'
• Centre releases Rs 65 cr to revive lakes in J&K
• Refund claims may rise on derivatives losses
• 'India important source of FDI in US'
• Microcredit raises hopes for farm widows
• Retail sector may get service tax relief
• BJP seeks Rs 1,000 cr relief package from Centre
• CST phaseout to miss deadline
• Repo rate, CRR hike on cards
• DA announced for Punjab employees

Indian Economy Updates | Latest agriculture / trade News

April 2008 Indian Economic Updates :

Agriculture April 2008 Latest Updates :

• Mizoram govt distributes paddy seeds to farmers free of cost - (18/4/2008)
• Govt pressed to compensate farmers - (17/4/2008)
• Karuturi Global to buy Dutch firm Florinex - (17/4/2008)
• Rs 25kcr plan to boost farm output: Pawar - (16/4/2008)
• Poll-bound states likely to put stock limits on wheat - (16/4/2008)
• Rain & hail may set wheat prices on fire - (15/4/2008)
• Agriculture needs investments to handle supply issues: IDBI - (15/4/2008)
• Govt may meet wheat target as pvt players shy away from buying - (14/4/2008)
• 20 farm suicides in three days in Vidarbha - (13/4/2008)
• Need to raise loan waiver upto 10 hectares farm land:Coop body - (13/4/2008)
• Potato farmers struck by distress sale - (13/4/2008)
• Expert expects potato prices to stabilise at Rs 5-6 a kg - (13/4/2008)
• Maharashtra's sugar output to dip by 6%, export up by 42% - (13/4/2008)
• Efforts being made to get more rice from central pool, AP - (12/4/2008)
• Haryana to launch campaign for seed treatment - (12/4/2008)
• Cashew corp to launch health drink, soup - (12/4/2008)
• Govt may allow premium non-basmati exports: Exporters - (11/4/2008)
• Country needs higher pulses imports in FYO9: Trader - (11/4/2008)
• Basmati seen steady in tight market - (11/4/2008)
• World sugar prices seen at 12-15 cents/lb: ISO - (11/4/2008)
• Big cos may prefer MP, Rajasthan to Punjab for wheat lifting - (10/4/2008)
• NABARD gears up to start farmers' loan waivers by June - (9/4/2008)
• Rs 393.33 cr in crops lost due to Kerala rains - (8/4/2008)
• 2008 wheat output to top 75 mn tonnes - (8/4/2008)
• Govt not to raise wheat procurement price: Pawar - (7/4/2008)
• Orissa govt to soon declare new agriculture policy - (7/4/2008)
• Untimely rains may hit mango production, price rise likely - (6/4/2008)
• Wheat crop under threat as widespread rain lashes region - (6/4/2008)
• FAO predicts increased rice production in Asian countries - (3/4/2008)
• Soaring food prices to help farmers - (2/4/2008)
• Non-basmati export ban decision hasty: Exporters - (2/4/2008)
• Higher wheat crop globally to check prices - (2/4/2008)
• Changing food habits fuelling demand for wheat: Pawar - (1/4/2008)
• MNRE submits draft composition for National Biofuel Dev Board - (1/4/2008)
• Punjab govt announces Rs 16.35 crore relief for farmers - (1/4/2008)
• Mango production to go up 12 pc this year- (31/3/2008)

April 2008 Trade with Foreign Updates :

• India wants better connectivity with Bangladesh - (20/4/2008)
• Trilateral alliance not aimed at creating power bloc: India - (19/4/2008)
• Canada calls for stronger economic ties with India - (19/4/2008)
• India wants two-way trade with US: Ronen Sen - (19/4/2008)
• US small business agency to promote exports to India - (19/4/2008)
• US housing slump hits India's furniture exports - (19/4/2008)
• India to import 80 lakh tons of urea this year: Paswan - (18/4/2008)
• India, Mexico sign agreements in civil aviation, energy - (18/4/2008)
• WTO ministerial on May 19 to help wrap up Doha talks - (18/4/2008)
• India questions US legislation on scanning all imports - (17/4/2008)
• Indo-US business unaffected by rupee rise, sub-prime crisis - (10/4/2008)
• Indo-Malaysia trade opportunities galore - (10/4/2008)
• Schemes to be launched for promoting ornamental fish export - (9/4/2008)
• India, UK SMEs eye tie-ups ahead of Commonwealth, Olympics - (9/4/2008)
• Russia seeks enhanced economic ties with India - (9/4/2008)
• India to export about 2.1 mlnT of corn by May '08 - (9/4/2008)
• Oilmeals export earning jumps 65% to Rs 7,109 cr in FY'08 - (8/4/2008)
• India, Kazakhstan to get into projects-specific mode in oil sector - (8/4/2008)
• There's tremedous potential for growth of US-India trade: US - (8/4/2008)
• India's ties with Africa distinct from others - (7/4/2008)
• EU, US renew pressure on India's import ban on animal products - (7/4/2008)
• India-Africa trade can touch $50 billion by 2012: FICCI survey - (7/4/2008)
• Govt to facilitate cement import from Pakistan - (7/4/2008)
• Cross-border Indo-Pak trade along LOC on the anvil - (7/4/2008)
• Exporters should change biz models,cut dependence on govt: Survey - (6/4/2008)
• Seafood exports from India registers 12 pc fall - (5/4/2008)
• WTO calls off Doha trade meeting planned for April - (5/4/2008)
• Qureshi hints at reassessing no-Indian investment policy - (4/4/2008)
• CSEZ achieves 70 per cent growth in exports - (4/4/2008)
• 'India-Africa summit will boost South-South cooperation' - (4/4/2008)
• Govt withdraws sop on basmati rice export to check inflation - (4/4/2008)
• India, Myanmar inks double taxation avoidance treaty - (3/4/2008)
• US embarking on global energy ties with India - (3/4/2008)
• India agrees to supply rice to crisis ridden Sri Lanka - (3/4/2008)
• India asks developed nations to end protectionism - (3/4/2008)
• India sugar exports to fall in next crop year: LMC - (3/4/2008)
• India-Australia tie-up on cards for flexible GI shield - (3/4/2008)
• Sugar exports to dominate trade conference - 1/4/08