Indian Economy to grow at 7.8 percent in 2009-10

India's economy will likely grow at 7.8 per cent in fiscal year 2010/11, higher than a previous forecast of 6.6 per cent due to an improved investment outlook, better external environment and a recovery in consumption demand, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Monday.

But it kept its growth estimate for the current year ending March 2010 at 5.8 per cent citing a poor monsoon and the follow-on negative impact on rural demand in the near-term.

Goldman's fiscal year target for wholesale price index-based inflation as of end-FY10 is 6.5 per cent with an upside risk, and expects the central bank to tighten policy rates by 300 basis points in calendar year 2010.

Govt would require to borrow 120 billion rupees per week

The Government official said today that the borrowing in the closing weeks of September could be 110 billion rupees or less.

Earlier, a central bank deputy governor said the government would borrow an additional 1.1 trillion rupees ($22.6 billion), taking the total to 2.99 trillion between April and September, a central bank deputy said on Thursday.

The additional borrowing excludes 120 billion rupees of bond sale scheduled for Friday.

India's external debt at $ 230 billion

India's external debt rose 2.4 per cent or $5.3 billion to $229.9 billion for the fiscal ended March 31, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Tuesday.

India, which has an external debt equivalent to 22 per cent of its gross domestic product, was already the fifth most indebted country in the world in 2007, the central bank said in a statement.
The current account - which includes components like external trade deficit and remittances from overseas - had a deficit of $29.82 billion for last fiscal, compared to a deficit of $17.03 billion in the previous period.

The capital account - which comprises items like foreign investment, external loans and foreign assistance - had a surplus of $9.15 billion for 2008-09 compared to a surplus of $107.94 billion in the year-ago period.

Deflation is not a threat for India

India is not threatened by a deflation spiral that could derail economic development, the economic intelligence arm of global rating agency Moody's said today.

"Deflation is generally unwelcome by policymakers as it encourages consumers to delay purchases and businesses to postpone investment, which would eventually hurt GDP growth," Sherman Chan, an economist with Moody's Economy.com said.

"Lower prices may in fact boost consumption volumes, especially in poor regions. Meanwhile, cheaper input costs may also present a good opportunity to speed up construction of much needed infrastructure," Chan addded.

For the first time since the new wholesale price index (WPI) series started in 1995, India's annual rate of inflation has turned negative, falling to minus 1.61 percent for the week ended June 6. This has led to fears that this would lead to hoarding of food articles and a consequent rise in prices.

The inflation rate, which was 0.13 percent in the previous week, had last turned negative in 1977.

PM says Indian economy faced crises very well

Returning home after attending the summits of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Brazil-Russia-India-China (BRIC), where the global financial crisis was the main theme, Singh said there was a need for reforming the present systems of global governance and international financial system.

He hoped the BRIC would not remain a "talk-shop" and the member countries would work together so that their voice is heard in the global arena.

"We live in times of rapid economic changes when the BRIC economies are a factor of stability and growth," Singh told accompanying journalists while returning from Yekaterinburg in Russia.

"India has borne the global economic crisis well, though we have not been unaffected," he said.

Talking about the BRIC Summit, he said the leaders discussed the need to intensify cooperation among the four nations and international economic downturn and how to prepare for the forthcoming G-8 and G-20 Summits.

Plan outlay may swell by Rs 1,00,000 cr in Budget

Plan expenditure may see a quantum jump of about Rs one lakh crore due to likely increased allocation for the UPA's flagship programmes such as NREGA, Bharat Nirman as well as concessional foodgrains to the poor.

This is likely to take total Plan expenditure to Rs 3.85 lakh crore against Rs 2.85 lakh crore in the interim Budget, tabled in February, sources told media.



Higher Plan expenditure may cause increase in the fiscal deficit for 2009-10 to over six per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 5.5 per cent projected in the interim budget.

President Pratibha Patil in her address to the joint sitting of Parliament had expressed the government's commitment to flagship schemes including the NREGA and Bharat Nirman, besides food security, among other programmes.

"Ministries have sought more allocation to implement flagship schemes, including social sector programmes and new schemes. This may result in the Plan expenditure pegged at 2.85 lakh crore during the interim budget to swell by about Rs one lakh crore," a source said.

Ministries seeking higher allocation in view of the government's commitment for flagship schemes and strengthening infrastructure include rural development, railways, power, urban development, water resources and human resource development among others, the sources said.

Sector-wise plan allocation for education may go up over Rs 15,000 crore, rural development Rs 4,000 crore, urban development about Rs 4,000 crore, power Rs 8,000 crore and health Rs 4,000 crore.

Economists up their economy forecast to 7 percent

Upbeat at formation of new UPA government headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, economists on Friday said that continuity in policies would push economic growth to over seven per cent in the current fiscal.

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"A very good government.it will provide support to growth. My projection for GDP growth rate is around 7 per cent and this government can realise it," said noted economist Saumitra Chaudhuri, who till recently was a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council.

The new government, however, will have to address issues in infrastructure and education sectors, he added.

"I see a lot of continuity and stability as these Cabinet ministers have already worked for five years," said Nitin Desai, former Chief Economic Adviser.

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"The growth is already on the path of recovery. The new cabinet should help in continuation of economic reforms", he said, adding the main challenge before the government would be to provide good governance.

Manmohan Singh was today sworn-in as Prime Minister for a second consecutive term at the head of a 20-member team in the first installment of government formation truncated by the deadlock over portfolios for DMK members.

Annual Inflation at 0.61 percent

India's wholesale price index rose 0.61 percent in the 12 months to May 9, above the previous week's annual rise of 0.48 percent, government data showed on Thursday.

It matched a median forecast of 0.61 percent in a Reuters poll of analysts. The annual inflation rate was 8.57 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

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The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is released weekly.

India grew 6.5 percent in FY09 , inflation to fall further - PM

India's economy grew an estimated 6.5 per cent in the just-ended 2008/09 fiscal year and consumer price inflation is expected to moderate in five to six months, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Monday.

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A global economic slump and slowdown in domestic demand have weakened economic growth in Asia's third largest economy, but falls in commodity prices have helped moderate prices.

"The wholesale price inflation is already down to around 1 per cent and there is a time lag for the consumer price inflation to also fall," Singh told a news conference at Ludhiana. "But I am sure CPI inflation will moderate in five to six months," he said at the last lap of a month-long election campaign in the northern state of Punjab.

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India's wholesale price index rose 0.70 per cent in the 12 months to April 25, above the previous week's annual rise of 0.57 per cent.

RBI moves $5.7 bn to Indian government

(5-5-09 - RBI news) - The Reserve Bank of India said today it had transferred 280 billion rupees ($5.7 billion) from its intervention bonds to the government, a move that would ease the pressure on record market borrowings planned for 2009/10.

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The RBI has taken a series of steps to ensure the government's net borrowing plan of 3.09 trillion rupees in the fiscal year that began on April 1 would go through smoothly without disrupting markets and sending yields shooting up.

The government had borrowed a net 3.02 trillion rupees in 2008/09.

The 10-year bond yield briefly ticked 1 basis points lower to 6.25 percent on the announcement. It has dropped more than 100 basis points since hitting a four-month high of 7.37 percent in mid-March.

The Reserve Bank of India said the transfer, which was made on May 2, would form part of the government's borrowing plan for 2009/10. It aims to move a total of 330 billion rupees from the market stabilisation scheme (MSS) in this year.

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The outstanding amount under the MSS account was 427.73 billion rupees on May 2, the RBI said. It has also bought back federal bonds in recent weeks to ensure adequate investor appetite for new auctions.

In early March, the central bank had given 120 billion rupees from the MSS account to the government to meet a sudden surge of borrowings in the closing weeks of the 2008/09 fiscal year.

Economy poised for a rebound

The worst is over and the economy looks set for a rebound. This may sound contra-intuitive after dire predictions of a long and deep

slowdown, but economists and investment bankers interviewed by TOI see a revival as early as September, or latest by December. All of them see growth riding on the back of domestic demand rather than overseas business but caution that some sectors such as IT may take a little longer.

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The pace of rebound being projected ranges from an optimistic 8% of GDP to a cautious 6-7% in the last quarter. For the full fiscal, there's consensus on 6.5-7% except a CII forecast that pegged it at 6-6.5%. But a word of caution here will not be out of place. These figures could still go off the mark as the signs may be deceptive. This is just like when the specialists failed to see through the boom to see the bust coming.

"Green shoots of growth are showing in some sectors and we can certainly see a sustainable upward movement by the September-October busy season. Summer is lean period as activities usually slow down before picking up in September... or more in October," Ficci secretary-general Amit Mitra said.

Suresh Tendulkar, chairman of PM's Economic Advisory Council, was more optimistic and said recovery had started. "There have been some pressure on the bottomline and profit growth may not be as high as expected. But the way revenues have grown, it shows revival has started," he said.

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All of them identified infrastructure as the engine, driving demand in steel, cement and other manufactured items. "Infrastructure will spur the drawdown on inventories. That's happened in cement and is starting to happen in steel," said the investment banker.

Mahajan sees agriculture in a support role. "It will prompt rural demand but since there's a rigidity in the sector, it is not like the farm sector will carry the economy as a whole. A good monsoon and a good crop will certainly help the economic revival but that will not be the sole driver. After all, you already have good rural demand."

Mitra said steel and cement signified some turnaround in producer side. "FMCG never suffered. Activities in small housing are coming back. All these can be sustained if interest rates come down... projects become viable, start getting off the ground and (with low interest) propel consumer side interest."

Indian economy to recover from mid-2009 - Macquaire

(29-4-2009 Indian economy updates) - Indian economy will begin to recover from the middle of this year, thanks to the fiscal and monetary measures taken up by the government, but the outcome of the ongoing general election remains a legitimate concern, global research firm Macquarie has said.

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Macquarie said, "Our view remains that the largely domestically-driven Indian economy will begin to recover palpably from mid-year onwards."

The double-cylinder fiscal and monetary response has been aggressive and already paying dividend, the research firm said but added that "political uncertainty over the outcome for the ongoing general election remains a legitimate concern".

The other factors likely to contribute include that India is relatively less dependent on exports, its export profile is not heavily dependent on electronic or automotive shipments and the domestic fiscal and policy response has been aggressive and effective.

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Macquarie further said the Reserve Bank of India appears to be approaching the end of the policy rate-cutting cycle, but banks have more room to cut their lending rates more aggressively, which in turn should boost economic activity.

"Indeed, the broader setting is evolving nicely to position the economy for a better second-half of FY'10. Currently, we forecast a full-year GDP growth of 5.5 per cent for FY'10 following an estimated 6.5 per cent in the last fiscal year," Macquarie said.

posted under - economy of india, indian economy updates, economic crises, india economy, indian economy blog

Indian Inc's overseas investment slips 11 percent - RBI

(23/4 Indian Economy updates -the slowdown effect) - Facing the pangs of slowdown, India Inc appears to have restrained from overseas mergers and acquisitions as the country's foreign investment slipped by over 11 per cent during April-December 2008, says Reserve Bank.

"During the first nine months of 2008-09, 2,828 proposals amounting to $16,352 million were cleared for investments abroad in JVs (joint ventures) and WOSs (wholly owned subsidiaries), as against 1,595 proposals amounting to $18,437 million during the corresponding period of the previous year," the central bank said in its April Bulletin.

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Even though the number of proposals recorded an increase of 77.3 per cent, amount invested by India Inc on overseas ventures dipped by over 11 per cent during the period.

There were a total of 2,828 proposals during the first nine months of 2008-09 against 1,595 proposals in the corresponding period previous year.

"During the quarter, October-December 2008, proposals amounting to $7,409 million were cleared for investments abroad in JVs and WOSs, as against $7,882 million during October-December 2007, the RBI said.

posted under - RBI updates, economic updates, economy of india, indian economy slowdown, slowing economy, asian economies, indian rupee, economy of india

Inflation rises to 0.26 percent - April 11

Indian inflation Updates April 2009 - Annual Inflation consisting Wholesale price index rose 0.26 per cent in the 12 months to April 11, above the previous week's annual rise of 0.18 per cent.

It was above a median forecast of 0.09 per cent in a poll of analysts. The annual inflation rate was 7.95 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

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The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is released weekly.

Hmm so despite slowdown everywhere indian economy is showing growth signs as growth in inflation percent nearly shows that consumer spending has not been hit amid global economic crises , One reason for growth of indian economy is (according to me) is the black economy which runs in parallel in india but is not shown in the audit books of the firms, so atleast some advantage of black money in these crucial crises times.....

wait for the next post dedicated to "parallel black economy of india"

posted under - inflation 2009, indian inflation, inflation in april, april inflation updates, economy of india, indian economy updates

Indian Forex reserves at USD 252 billion

(20/4/2009 Indian Economy updates) - India's foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 252 billion as of end-March, declining by USD 57.7 billion over the previous year, the Reserve Bank said on Monday.

The RBI said in its Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments in 2008-09 said, the overall approach to the management of India's foreign exchange reserves in recent years reflects the changing composition of the balance of payments and the 'liquidity risks' associated with different types of flows and other requirements.

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"Taking these factors into account, India's foreign exchange reserves continued to be at a level consistent with the rate of growth, the size of the external sector in the economy and the size of risk-adjusted capital flows," RBI said.

posted under - economy of india, indian economy updates, indian forex reserves, RBI updates, indian economy blog, economy of india updates, forex updates, india forex reserves

Economic growth drivers moderating - RBI

Major drivers of growth in India are witnessing moderation and various surveys of economic activity point towards less-than-optimistic
sentiment for the economy in coming months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday.

The survey of professional forecasters conducted by the Reserve Bank of India cut gross domestic product estimates for the 2009/10 fiscal year to 5.7 percent from 6.0 percent, it said in a review of the economy.

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The central bank said the slew of measures taken by it and the government would help tame the moderation in growth and revive consumption and investment demand.

Inflation lowers but food items prices skyrocket

Annual inflation fell to a three- decade low of 0.26 per cent, although prices of essential food items rose by up to 17 per cent, shows data released just days ahead of the country going to general elections.

Wholesale prices-based inflation declined by 0.05 percentage points for the week ended March 28 from 0.31 per cent in the previous week.

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Even as the point-to-point inflation is near zero level, the average rate of price rise works out to be 8.4 per cent for the fiscal 2008-09 against 4.7 per cent in 2007-08.

Edible items like salt, sugar, milk, cereals, pulses, manufactured food products, spices and fruits were selling at higher rates for the week under review than a year ago.

In the backdrop of fall in sugarcane production, sugar prices soared by 17 per cent leaving a bitter taste. Inflation has become a key election issue, with political parties promising cheap rations for the poor.

Salt prices too went up by 10.68 per cent, milk by 6.22 per cent, cereals by 9.61 per cent, pulses 8.46 per cent and fruits by 8.02 per cent. However, drop in prices of minerals, metals, fuel, power and lubricants helped pull down the over all inflation to a three decade low.

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With the inflation dropping to such a low, analysts feel that the Reserve Bank of India may signal further cut in interest rates. RBI Governor D Subbarao reviewed the interest rate scenario with the heads of commercial banks in Mumbai yesterday.

"Inflation is low due to crisis in demand and crisis of confidence. It is low (also) due to base effect," said economic research body, RIS' Director-General Nagesh Kumar.

The Finance Ministry described the year-on-year price rise as "stable". It said the inflation of primary articles declined for the week ended March 28, 2009 from the previous week.

However, there was 3.46 per cent point-to-point annualised price rise for these articles. Further disaggregation of food articles shows that several items were selling at higher prices.

posted under - Inflation, Indian inflation updates, April inflation updates, Inflation at all time low, indian economy updates, economy of india, india and inflation
source - www.economictimes.com

Oil export earnings rise 17 per in 2009

April 8/09 - Despite facing a downturn in demand and consequently in prices since October 2008, India’s earning from oilmeal exports increased 17% to Rs 8,341 crore in 2008-09 even on a lower export volume. A firm trend in global markets during the first half of the FY09 has helped India beat the impact of recession on oilmeal exports.

Riding on substantial gains in price realisation in the first half of 2008-09, oilmeal continues to remain the highest export earner in the agri-commodity segment. During the year, it fetched about Rs 8,341 crore on an export volume of 5,421,607 tonne compared to Rs 7,109 crore against a volume export of 5,442,132 tonne in 2007-08.

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According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), oilmeal exports in the first two quarters of 2008-09 jumped due to excellent demand and higher realisation of FOB prices. However, it stagnated in the third quarter. Exports declined heavily in the fourth quarter faced with a decline in meat and poultry production in its prime markets in South-east Asia, which happened due to dip in consumer demand for livestock products in the recession-hit countries.

posted under - Oilmeal earnings, oil exports, indian economy updates, economy of india, indian oil exports news, indian economy news, oilmeal in india, oilmeal exports

Economy Updates - Exports down 18% to $12 bn in March 2009

April 7/09(India Economy Updates) - The country seems all set to miss the pared down export target for 2008-09 with exports recording a fall in March 2009, for the sixth time in a row. Quick estimates made by the commerce department reveal that exports fell by 18% in March 2009 to $12 billion.

The aggregate export figure for the entire fiscal is, therefore, at $168.59 billion, which is more than a billion dollar short of the lower range of the revised target of $170-175 billion set by the government. The unofficial quick estimates, however, are sometimes quite different from the revised estimates officially issued at the end of the month.

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While desegregated figures are not available, a government official said that sectors such as textiles, handicrafts, carpets, leather, gems & jewellery and marine products continued to do badly. While demand for some of these products, especially textiles, has started picking up slightly in the EU market, demand from the US continues to be sluggish, the official added.

India exported goods worth $162 billion in 2008-09 registering a healthy growth over the previous fiscal. The 2008-09 fiscal began on a robust note with exports growing by more than 30% in the first six months. While the effects of the global demand slowdown started appearing in September with export growth slowing down to 10% in September 2008, the downslide started in October 2008 with exports entering the negative territory with a fall of 12.8% over October 2007.

Exports have not managed to get out of the negative zone ever since. Commerce and industry minister Kamal Nath, who had initially fixed the export target for 2008-2009 at $200 billion, brought it down to $170 billion-$175 billion in the last quarter of the fiscal year.

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With demand in key markets including the US, the EU and Japan slowing down, exports in most countries have been hit.

posted under - Exports , indian export news, Indian exports updates, economy of india, indian economy updates, indian economic news, economic news of india

India ranks second in industrial production among developing countries

India ranks among the top five developing countries in production of six major industrial items, including textiles, motor vehicles, chemicals and basic metals, according to a UN agency UNIDO.

In four out of the six industrial products - textiles, chemicals and chemical products, basic metals and electrical machinery and apparatus - India figures at number two only behind China.

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India's annual growth rate of manufacturing value added (MVA) has risen from 6.9 per cent in the period 2000-2005 to 12.3 per cent between 2005 and 2007, according to the year book of the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO).

It found that the share of MVA in India's gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to 14.8 per cent in 2006 from 13.8 per cent in 2001.

UNIDO found that the developing countries now produced almost 30 per cent of the world MVA compared to 16 per cent in 1990.

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"The increasing share of developing world vis-a-vis industrialised countries is also explained by the shift of location of manufacturing, especially assembling of final products from industrialised countries to developing countries," the UNIDO said.

posted under - industrial production, indian economy, economy of india, indian industrial output, output updates, indian economy updates, economy of india