Fundamentally weak economy like India can never grow as policies affect

In last couple of decades in world economic history, only one country stands out ie 'CHINA', In developing it's highly competitive manufacturing based economy especially in Consumer electronics and in all the sectors, China has become lone manufacturing hub of the world. You see any thing and it's 'MADE IN PRC' written all over it. Indian economy has never cleared even the heats to compete among the top manufacturing countries.

Recent turmoil in Indian economy (with USD reaching 61 INR levels) is a testimony to fundamentally weak economy. We can boast only of services sector alone, but services sector can never be considered as helpful in creating a fundamentally strong economy. Indian market has become a puppet in hands of foreign players and government an agent in helping them establish their footprint.

Other thing which adversly add's to fundamentally weak economy is the high level corruption which prevents foreign companies to invest in India. When Indian government wanted to dis-invest some stake of PSU recently, there were hardly any takers for the freed share. This is because FII's fear that government would sleep and do nothing in making the employees of PSU's competent. Union ministers donot give clearance to Foreign projects until their portion of bribe has been transferred, social groups come in for halting the development of a financially weaker area etc etc.

Many of the small scale manufacturing units have closed down in recent past only because instead of making their own products they are now acting as import agent and have starting importing their products from China, this has effected manufacturing capacity of Indian economy very badly, there are job losses(direct and in-direct job loss). recently one of my relatives who is manager of a company which is into Container manufacturing business noted that, the container which has least manufacturing cost of 2.25 lac's when manufactured in India, can be imported from china with all inclusive price(shipping, import duty etc) of 1.75 lac's. This has further hampered growth of heavy industrial goods manufacturing in India. Prices in India is higher due to corruption in the working system of the country.

We are unable to feed our people using our own products as our manufacturing has slowed down wrto growth of the population. This probably because political class hardly cares about the country instead they are busy filling their own coffins. This is proved when recently central government put a ban on onion export as prices in country are rising because of rains in Maharashtra's onion producing region, but coalition partner disagreed with center's decision citing that it would destroy India as competitive agro exporter in world(Pathetic logic as native citizen has first right on country's resources and farm produce), so when we have such species of politicians present, It looks very difficult for Indian economy to become fundamentally strong and we can never think that our exports would surpass our imports in coming years, until government focuses on local manufacturing and rises import duty without thinking of their individual benefits before nation's.

A weak manufacturing economy an never be fundamentally strong economy and people should not live with notion that our economy is fundamentally strong.
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India - The land of Scams

It's bit late to post on this topic, and the new crown which India has got 'The land of Scams' but still this title looks pretty new and fresh as we see daily some or other news channel flashing updates of scams in India, If we check history than I think now the era has changed and more scams are directly printed or telecasted.

According to me these scams were common before economic liberalisation of India, Only difference was at that time we had only Government owned and controlled DD national, but now we have lots of private channels which are free to show any scam.

So in case of scams the difference of economic liberalisation or media liberalization is that people are able to know what are corrupt politicians are doing and have been doing since 1947.

One thing is for sure that Indian Politicians are the worst kinda breed of humans ever evolved, I wanted to write dogs instead of humans before but later thought that dogs are faithfule to the one who gives it food so found it unsuitable title.

The Raja's of Tamil Nadu, Badal's of Punjab, Yedu of karnataka tops the list of the worstness in descending order of corruption. Keeping judiciary and CBI in it's pocket and resignation as a weapon to make some other stupid loyal person face for people and carry on bribery, corrupt practices as it is.

With Central Government sleeping and boasting of just GDP number's and nothing else, what a pity for India, PM makes no statements whatsoever except one like 'Madam se pooch kar bataunga', Politics has reached lowest level, but the good news is that media makes people aware of what is happening in politics and people might consider these scams for the next elections and would not vote for the tainted person.

People have lost their faith in electoral system and donot casts vote because there is no politician with clear history, Voting process has meagre 50 percent turnovers and out of fifty percent turnover the candidate who wins 26 percent is elected to Parliament, This scenario haunts me a lot as clearly the person getting 26 percent means 74 percent people donot consider him eligible person to win, I think in voting too their should be consideration of this point and should go for revoking after cancelling candidature of the earlier candidates as ineligible.

Recently I was reading some english daily and came across figure like Britishers looted some 20k crores from India in 150 years and till now Indian Politicians have looted some 70000 crores, without any development activities, The point to remember is that Indian Economy has grown due to business tycoons and not by any government activities except the liberalisation policy, which has helped our PM in getting residence at 7 Race course road.

At last I want to conclude that if same things keep on hapenning without ant concrete action happening to the culprits then some Bhagat Singh kind of person(s) would surely surface to kill these bastards and return some decency to Indian Politics.

Long live India!!

Banks move to Mutual funds as loan applications dip

(posted under - Indian Economy, Mutual funds investing) - According to the latest RBI figures, the first week of April has seen a dip in outstanding loans. Total bank loans as on April 9 stood at Rs 32,41,255 crore, up Rs 1,167 crore over the previous fortnight’s levels. However, outstanding loans were marginally lower than the Rs 32,43,175-crore loans outstanding on end March 2010. The second half of March saw bank loans growing by over Rs 1,00,000 crore — a feat which banking sources say was achieved only by banks window dressing their books.

Banks have invested an additional Rs 50,016 crore during the fortnight ended April 9, taking their total MF exposure to Rs 1,05,519 crore. This is despite the central bank asking lenders to cut down exposure to mutual funds. Foreign exchange reserves were flat at $280 billion during the week-ended April 16, largely on account of revaluation of non-dollar assets.

Indian infrastructure output increases by 4 percent

India's infrastructure sector output grew 4 percent in September from a year earlier, slower than upwardly revised annual growth of 7.8 percent in August, government data showed on Wednesday.

During April-September, the first half of the 2009/10 year, output rose 5 percent compared with 3.4 percent in the same period in 2008/09.

The infrastructure sector accounts for 26.7 percent of India's industrial output.

Problem of black economy in india

Indian economy has crossed the 1 trillion worth mark and per capita income in india has also crossed the $3000 mark THATS a very good news indeed...but indian economy is actually worth more then the 1.13 trillion worth for sure thanks to the black economy which runs in parallel along with the white economy. that is worth $ 1+ trillion worth, still majority of trading in india is done in grey market which government doesn't come to know about or may be they know it but since many of their money earning sources are part of black economy they try to pretend as they are not aware of it.. what a pity on indian economy.

the growth of black economy in india can be controlled if the currency notes and coins come with an renewal date.. yes i know it may sound a little weird or horrible but it might be very effective, one good effect would be that more black money which currently doesnot circulate in market would come in circulation and the MP's MLA's beaurocrats which are indulged heavily in corrupt practices would be most effective.

The currency note which has met with exppiry date cannot be used until they are renewed by some government authorized agencies which should be independent of government and should be controlled directly by Reserve bank of india (RBI).

The other important plus point about this type of renewal based economy is that the Indian money which is deposited in Swiss banks and is unknown to the indian government would also be required for renewal which would be a major instrument in ending the black economy, we all know that the politicians have huge assets in their swiss bank accounts , renewal based economy would also help in improved circulation of economy in market.

RBI should maintain a database for all such renewal activities and it should further distribute such economy date renewal to state levels and then to district levels with a centralised system, thus we would also come to know about the Indian economy status in individual states. but one thing is sure that indian politicians and major business houses including some of the biggest indian businesses would be against such renewal based economy as their black money based assests would become public when they show them for renewal.

the Idea looked very interesting to me as it would really help in bringing money deposited in swiss banks, in unauthorised bank accounts in india, black money belonging to business houses and belonging to individuals too would be brought in notice of RBI.

I was talking to one of my relative about this type of currency which comes with a renewal date, so thought of posting it on my blog to get to know what the other fellow indians think about it.

So what do you think about such move so that the black economy would end

Economy of austerity - ministral spending to decrease for fiscal year 2011

(posted under - politics of austerity, finance ministry updates) - The Finance Ministry in the Budget Circular for 2010-11 said, "The estimates (RE 2009-10) must confirm to instructions, which stipulate a 10 per cent and five per cent cut in non-plan, non-salary expenditure and other economy measures."

For the next fiscal, the circular added, "It is necessary to review the existing expenditure budget to priorities the activities and schemes, both on the plan and non-plan side and identify those activities and schemes, which can be eliminated or reduced in size or merged with any other scheme."


As part of its economic drive, the Finance Ministry, earlier in the month, advised ministries and departments to cut by 10 per cent expenditure on travel, seminars, exhibitions and other office expenses. In case of other non- plan expenditure, the they were asked to reduce expenses by five per cent.

The austerity move also includes complete ban on holding conferences in five star hotels.

These measures were announced as the Centre faces increasing burden on its exchequer following economic downturn and drought.

"There was further need for economy and rationalisation of expenditure in view of the current fiscal situation and that arising out of insufficient rains in large parts of the country and consequent pressure on government resources," the Finance Ministry had said earlier this month.

The Budget circular asked all ministries and departments to ensure that all schemes that have been discontinued, do not find mention in revised estimates for 2009-10.

source - economictimes

India to invest upto $10 bn in IMF

India is to invest up to $10 billion in the International Monetary Fund as part of a major thrust to wrest a greater say in the running of international financial institutions, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in recent BRIC countries meetings being held at london.

"India has decided to invest up to $10 bn of its reserves in notes issued by the IMF," Mukherjee said after a meeting of the finance ministers of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) in London.

The Indian pledge is part of a total of $80 billion that the four BRIC countries will invest into the IMF in order to replenish its fund aimed at helping out countries that are struggling in the current financial crisis.

China will account for $50 billion of this amount, and the rest will be borne by India, Russia and Brazil.

In return, the BRIC countries want a greater say in the running of the IMF and other international financial institutions such as the World Bank, including a larger share of quotas and voting, said Brazil's Finance Minister Guido Mantega.

Part of the BRIC meeting was joined by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in a move that Mukherjee described as "an acknowledgement of the group's emergence as a key voice in global economic and financial issues".

Indian Economy to grow at 7.8 percent in 2009-10

India's economy will likely grow at 7.8 per cent in fiscal year 2010/11, higher than a previous forecast of 6.6 per cent due to an improved investment outlook, better external environment and a recovery in consumption demand, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Monday.

But it kept its growth estimate for the current year ending March 2010 at 5.8 per cent citing a poor monsoon and the follow-on negative impact on rural demand in the near-term.

Goldman's fiscal year target for wholesale price index-based inflation as of end-FY10 is 6.5 per cent with an upside risk, and expects the central bank to tighten policy rates by 300 basis points in calendar year 2010.

INR falls 39 paise against US $

Indian rupee closed above the crucial 48 level against the dollar for the first time in five weeks in tandem with a sharp slide in local stocks, raising fears of capital outflow from equity.

Resuming lower at 47.84/85 a dollar, the domestic unit later moved in a range of 48.16 and 47.81 before ending the day at 48.13/14 against the dollar, cheaper by 39 paise from its last close of 47.74/75 a dollar.

Dealers at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex) market said continued capital outflows in the week weighed on rupee sentiment.

Foreign institutional investors pulled out nearly USD 193.60 million in the last two days. They were believed to be heavy sellers in equity today.

The Indian benchmark Sensex plunged by 435 points or 2.91 per cent following dramatic sell-off by foreign funds.

Meanwhile, the dollar, which was buoyant in the overseas market in the last few days, was little changed against the basket of currencies.

Economists up their economy forecast to 7 percent

Upbeat at formation of new UPA government headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, economists on Friday said that continuity in policies would push economic growth to over seven per cent in the current fiscal.

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"A very good government.it will provide support to growth. My projection for GDP growth rate is around 7 per cent and this government can realise it," said noted economist Saumitra Chaudhuri, who till recently was a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council.

The new government, however, will have to address issues in infrastructure and education sectors, he added.

"I see a lot of continuity and stability as these Cabinet ministers have already worked for five years," said Nitin Desai, former Chief Economic Adviser.

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"The growth is already on the path of recovery. The new cabinet should help in continuation of economic reforms", he said, adding the main challenge before the government would be to provide good governance.

Manmohan Singh was today sworn-in as Prime Minister for a second consecutive term at the head of a 20-member team in the first installment of government formation truncated by the deadlock over portfolios for DMK members.

Inflation at 0.65 percent on April 25, 2009

(Inflation Updates - April 2009) - Annual inflation rate is expected to have risen for the third consecutive week in late April, because of a sustained increase in food, mineral and manufacturing prices, a poll showed on Wednesday.

The median forecast of 11 analysts was for 0.65 per cent rise in the wholesale price index in the 12 months to April 25, up from 0.57 per cent rise the previous week.

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"Inflation is expected to rise largely due to the general rise in food prices. Inflation falling below zero per cent has been postponed for a while now, may be until early June," said Deepali Bhargava, an economist with ING Vysya Bank said.

The index had been on a downward trend since last September, after a fall in global commodity prices, but steadied in March and has moved upward in the past two readings.

The weekly wholesale price index is more closely watched than the monthly consumer price index (CPI) because it includes more products and is published on a more frequent basis.

Economy poised for a rebound

The worst is over and the economy looks set for a rebound. This may sound contra-intuitive after dire predictions of a long and deep

slowdown, but economists and investment bankers interviewed by TOI see a revival as early as September, or latest by December. All of them see growth riding on the back of domestic demand rather than overseas business but caution that some sectors such as IT may take a little longer.

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The pace of rebound being projected ranges from an optimistic 8% of GDP to a cautious 6-7% in the last quarter. For the full fiscal, there's consensus on 6.5-7% except a CII forecast that pegged it at 6-6.5%. But a word of caution here will not be out of place. These figures could still go off the mark as the signs may be deceptive. This is just like when the specialists failed to see through the boom to see the bust coming.

"Green shoots of growth are showing in some sectors and we can certainly see a sustainable upward movement by the September-October busy season. Summer is lean period as activities usually slow down before picking up in September... or more in October," Ficci secretary-general Amit Mitra said.

Suresh Tendulkar, chairman of PM's Economic Advisory Council, was more optimistic and said recovery had started. "There have been some pressure on the bottomline and profit growth may not be as high as expected. But the way revenues have grown, it shows revival has started," he said.

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All of them identified infrastructure as the engine, driving demand in steel, cement and other manufactured items. "Infrastructure will spur the drawdown on inventories. That's happened in cement and is starting to happen in steel," said the investment banker.

Mahajan sees agriculture in a support role. "It will prompt rural demand but since there's a rigidity in the sector, it is not like the farm sector will carry the economy as a whole. A good monsoon and a good crop will certainly help the economic revival but that will not be the sole driver. After all, you already have good rural demand."

Mitra said steel and cement signified some turnaround in producer side. "FMCG never suffered. Activities in small housing are coming back. All these can be sustained if interest rates come down... projects become viable, start getting off the ground and (with low interest) propel consumer side interest."

India ranks second in industrial production among developing countries

India ranks among the top five developing countries in production of six major industrial items, including textiles, motor vehicles, chemicals and basic metals, according to a UN agency UNIDO.

In four out of the six industrial products - textiles, chemicals and chemical products, basic metals and electrical machinery and apparatus - India figures at number two only behind China.

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India's annual growth rate of manufacturing value added (MVA) has risen from 6.9 per cent in the period 2000-2005 to 12.3 per cent between 2005 and 2007, according to the year book of the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO).

It found that the share of MVA in India's gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to 14.8 per cent in 2006 from 13.8 per cent in 2001.

UNIDO found that the developing countries now produced almost 30 per cent of the world MVA compared to 16 per cent in 1990.

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"The increasing share of developing world vis-a-vis industrialised countries is also explained by the shift of location of manufacturing, especially assembling of final products from industrialised countries to developing countries," the UNIDO said.

posted under - industrial production, indian economy, economy of india, indian industrial output, output updates, indian economy updates, economy of india

Economic Crises leads to delay in Financial Reforms - Report

Pressure to support India's economy and drive growth during the global economic and financial crisis could impede efforts to put the country's fiscal house in order, a report by the government and central bank said on Monday.

"Given the current pressures to maintain growth at a reasonably high level it would not be possible to resume the fiscal correction path after the current financial turmoil," the report on the country's financial sector said.

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The report said that once the current turmoil had passed, fiscal discipline needed to be reasserted to support growth.

"For the growth momentum to be sustained, it is necessary to return to the path of fiscal prudence at both the central and state governments," the report said. The federal government's finances have suffered in the 2008/09 fiscal year that ends on March 31, after making solid gains over the past few years, as a slowing economy has hit revenues and increased spending.

The government expects the deficit to widen to 6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008/09, more than double its initial estimate. Analysts say the country's combined deficit, including state deficits and off-budget items such as fuel subsidy costs, is around 10 per cent.

The six-volume report is a comprehensive review of the country's financial system. The committee that prepared it was formed by the government and central bank in 2006, and was headed by Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan.

posted under - Indian economy updates, Crises, Economy of india, Indian Economy, Economic reforms, Indian economy blog, india finance updates
source -www.economictimes.com

MS Ahluwalia predicts economy growth at 6.5%

The Planning Commission on Tuesday said the economy will grow by 6.5 per cent during the current fiscal, much below the 7.1 per cent projected by the government last month.

"Growth this year will be around 6.5 per cent and the name of the game next year will be to repeat that performance," Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said here.

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Pointing out that additional stimulus, over and above what was announced in the Interim Budget, would be required to push growth, he said, "it will be a major achievement (to achieve growth of 6.5 per cent in 2009-10)".

Ruling out the possibility of sustained inflation in the backdrop of steps being taken by the Reserve Bank and the government, Ahluwalia said, "Low inflation gives us a lot of room in (the) next six months to use all available instruments to ensure growth picks up."

posted under - indian economy updates, economy of india, MS Ahluwalia , economic crises updates, indian economy, economics of india

India and China better then other bric countries

The global economic downturn has not left the emerging countries unscathed with India and China witnessing moderation in their economic growths, but experts believe the two countries are holding on relatively well among other developing nations.

According to a latest report by leading brokerage firm Sharekhan, "Asian emerging markets too are facing their own share of economic moderation owing to weakness in external trade, foreign inflows and economic sentiment. Importantly, India is holding on well, though the GDP growth has moderated to 5.3 per cent year-on-year (for Q3FY2009) compared with 7.6 per cent in Q2FY2009."

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Experts believe that though the fastest-growing economies of China and India have suffered some moderation, they are showing much more endurance than the other two countries in the BRIC pack - Brazil and Russia.

"Among the BRIC countries, India and China are relatively showing resilience as they are still reflecting GDP growth rates as high as six per cent to eight per cent," SMC Capitals equity head Jagannadham Thunuguntla said.

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Angel Broking Research Head Hitesh Agrawal also believes that India and China are relatively well-placed compared with Brazil and Russia, evident from the contractions witnessed in the latter two over the last six-eight quarters.

with extracts from economic times
posted under - indian economic updates, indian economy, bric countries, economy of india, economic slowdown and india

Economy Updates - Fiscal deficit at 7.8 pc of GDP

Indian Economy Updates - Including bonds issued to oil and fertiliser companies, the government's fiscal deficit for the year to March is estimated at 4.22 trillion rupees ($84 billion), the minister of state for finance said on Thursday. That equates to a total federal fiscal gap of 7.8 percent of gross domestic product.

Last week, the finance minister said in the budget speech the federal fiscal deficit would rise to 3.27 trillion rupees, or 6 percent of GDP, this financial year, but that did not include the off-balance sheet oil and fertiliser bonds.

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In a written reply to parliament, Pawan Kumar Bansal said a rise in global oil and food prices had lifted the government's subsidy bill, while stimulus packages to shield the economy from the global slump had raised expenditure.

"The fiscal deficit including the liability on account of securities issued during the year to oil marketing companies and fertiliser companies is (4.22 trillion) rupees," he said.

On Tuesday, Standard & Poor's cut its outlook on the country's long-term sovereign credit rating to negative from stable projecting the country's deficit, including off-budget items such as oil and fertiliser bonds, to increase to 11.4 percent in 2008/09, up from 5.7 percent in the previous year.

posted under - fiscal deficit, indian economy blog, economy of india, fiscal deficit updates, indian economy, economy of india, economic recession updates

Economy Updates - India's investment in Sri Lanka dips by $1.33 mn

India's investment in Sri Lanka has declined by $ 1.33 million to $ 6.93 million in the last fiscal, despite big domestic companies investing in the island nation.

"The approved Indian investments in Sri Lanka were $ 8.26 million in 2006-07 and $ 6.93 million during 2007-08," Commerce Minister Kamal Nath said at a meeting with Sri Lankan Minister of Export Development and International Trade G L Peiris, here today.The trade between the countries stood at USD 3.45 billion in 2007-08 as against $ 2.72 billion in the previous year, up by 27 per cent.

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In another meeting with Tanzanian Industry Minister Mary Nagu, Nath said there is a need for greater trade ties between the countries and investors could avail the opportunities of the favourable investment climate in India, particularly in the sectors like telecommunication, fibre-optics, tourism and infrastructure development.

The trade between India and Tanzania stood at $752 million during 2007-08. India exports fine chemicals, electronic goods and transport equipment to Tanzania.


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Meanwhile, the trade between India and Bhutan has grown significantly from a level of USD 141.86 million in 2003-2004 to $ 281.17 million in 2007-2008.India's import from Bhutan is valued at $194.48 million.The major items of exports from Bhutan to India, include , cement, timber and wood products, minerals.

posted under - Indian Economy, economy of india, indian economy blog, india economy updates

Reserve Bank to cut Interest rates even more

Reserve Bank of India ( RBI) could cut interest rates by another 150 basis points by mid-2009 as authorities fight to prop up sagging growth, but the central Rates bank is unlikely to seek zero rates like the United States and Japan even as deflation rears its head.

The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates on Friday for the fourth time since the global financial crisis blew up in September, taking the total reduction in its key lending rate or the repo rate to 350 points. It now stands at 5.50 percent.

Other central banks have slashed rates heavily too to fight off the deepest global financial crisis in decades. The US Federal Reserve and Japan have cut their rates close to zero, sparking debate on how far central banks will have to go to revive their economies.


posted under - RBI updates, Reserve Bank of India, Indian Interest Rates, Indian Economy, Economy under recession, Indian Economy updates
source- www.economictimes.com

RBI cuts rate further - will economy be boosted??

The Reserve Bank of India on Friday cut key policy rates. The repo and the reserve repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility RBI has been cut by 100 basis points while cash reserve ratio (CRR) has been reduced by 50 bps.

Following this move, reverse repo stands at 4%, repo stands at 5.5% and CRR now stands at 5%. The cut in CRR will infuse Rs 20,000 crore in the system.

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The market had widely expected RBI to cut the key lending rates. The cut in repo and reserve repo is with immediate effect while CRR cut will be effective from fortnight beginning January 17. Since August RBI cut CRR by 450 basis.

Repo rate is the rate at which banks borrow from RBI while the reverse repo is the rate which RBI gives banks for parking their surplus funds. These two rates are seen as the floor and the cap for daily call money movement.

The decisions would among other things infuse Rs 20,000 crore into the banking system.

Both reductions are effective immediately. The repo rate has been cut aggressively since mid-October last year as the central bank tried to minimise the knock-on effects of the global financial crisis.

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posted under - RBI updates, effect of recession on india, indian economy, economy of india, india economy updates, Reserve bank of india, Indian economy updates, indian rupee updates