Indian Economy's GDP pegged at 5 perc for 2010-11

Indian Economy's fiscal deficit for year 2010-11 is predicted to be in line of 5 percent of GDP according to Nomura. Which means it is much less then the predicted.

The government is also looking at raising Rs 40,000 crore through disinvestment this fiscal. It has already raised over Rs 1.06 lakh crore from the sale of spectrum for 3G and Broadband Wireless Services (BWA) services.

The research firm also said that one-off expenses on pay arrears and fiscal stimulus are set to fade. Hence government would borrow 15000 crores less in this financial year.

I am waiting when India would see it's first budget with zero deficit, that day will be golden day for Indian Economy....cheers!!

Banks move to Mutual funds as loan applications dip

(posted under - Indian Economy, Mutual funds investing) - According to the latest RBI figures, the first week of April has seen a dip in outstanding loans. Total bank loans as on April 9 stood at Rs 32,41,255 crore, up Rs 1,167 crore over the previous fortnight’s levels. However, outstanding loans were marginally lower than the Rs 32,43,175-crore loans outstanding on end March 2010. The second half of March saw bank loans growing by over Rs 1,00,000 crore — a feat which banking sources say was achieved only by banks window dressing their books.

Banks have invested an additional Rs 50,016 crore during the fortnight ended April 9, taking their total MF exposure to Rs 1,05,519 crore. This is despite the central bank asking lenders to cut down exposure to mutual funds. Foreign exchange reserves were flat at $280 billion during the week-ended April 16, largely on account of revaluation of non-dollar assets.

Timeline for duty free sugar import

India has extended tax-free white sugar imports until December 2010 as the world's biggest consumer of the sweetener faces robust demand and shrinking domestic output.

India's sugar season runs from October to September. The country's sugar output in the year that ended on Sep. 30 fell to 15 million tonnes from 26.4 million, forcing it to import 5 million tonnes and lifting raw sugar futures to the highest in nearly three decades.

World Bank approves $4.2 billion loan for India

The World Bank approved more loans equalling to $4.2 billion to India for three projects.

The loan amount will be divided in following manner - $2 billion for state-run banks, with IIFC receiving $1.195 billion to fund infrastructure projects, and PowerGrid Corp getting $1 billion to upgrade India's power transmission system. so we'll get less power cuts this time

Finance minister says not to exceed borrowing target

India's government will not borrow more from the market than its budget target for 2009/10.

The government plans to borrow 4.51 trillion rupees ($93 billion) in the fiscal year to fund a fiscal deficit forecast at 6.8 percent of gross domestic product.

-economictimes

Credit flow for micro & medium industries to double in 5 years says PM

The government is committed to doubling credit flow to micro, small and medium enterprises, which employ 6 crore persons and contribute 45 per cent to India's manufactured goods, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Friday.

"Credit is the lifeline of any business. The government is committed to double the flow of credit to MSMEs in five years," Singh said after giving away national awards to entrepreneurs in the sector here.

The Prime Minister, who reviewed the performance and difficulties of the sector with the industry representatives on Wednesday, said public sector banks increased lending to MSMEs by 25 per cent in 2008-09.

According to estimates, MSMEs are given credit of about Rs 1,50,000 crore by PSU banks per annum. There are 2.60 crore units in the sector which contribute 40 per cent to exports.

The Prime Minister has issued directions for constitution of a task force to look into the difficulties of MSMEs and recommend steps within next three months.

He said recent global economic slowdown has had an adverse impact on the growth of Indian economy. "Micro, small and medium enterprises have also not remained unaffected," he said, adding the government has been alive to the concerns.

No debt waiver for farmers this time - FM

With fiscal deficit increasing and adding to the government woes is deficit monsoon in almost entire country still Finance minister said that no proposal for farm debt waiver this time around.

"There is no such proposal," Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said when asked if the government was considering a fresh debt waiver scheme to give relief to farmers.

The UPA government had last year announced a nearly Rs 71,000 crore farm loan waiver scheme to offer relief to small and marginal farmers and one-time settlement scheme for large ones.

Talking to reporters after holding a review meeting of Regional Rural Banks, he exuded confidence that the economy would clock over six per cent growth despite weak monsoon.

"No doubt, this year we are not expecting to reach nine per cent growth. This year we are projecting six per cent plus growth," he said, adding that the full impact of drought will be known to all as and when it is felt.

Meanwhile, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said the poor monsoon will adversely impact farm production and eat into economic growth.

"The existence of drought by itself can lead to some shaving" off of the growth projections. - said Ahluwalia

Economists up their economy forecast to 7 percent

Upbeat at formation of new UPA government headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, economists on Friday said that continuity in policies would push economic growth to over seven per cent in the current fiscal.

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"A very good government.it will provide support to growth. My projection for GDP growth rate is around 7 per cent and this government can realise it," said noted economist Saumitra Chaudhuri, who till recently was a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council.

The new government, however, will have to address issues in infrastructure and education sectors, he added.

"I see a lot of continuity and stability as these Cabinet ministers have already worked for five years," said Nitin Desai, former Chief Economic Adviser.

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"The growth is already on the path of recovery. The new cabinet should help in continuation of economic reforms", he said, adding the main challenge before the government would be to provide good governance.

Manmohan Singh was today sworn-in as Prime Minister for a second consecutive term at the head of a 20-member team in the first installment of government formation truncated by the deadlock over portfolios for DMK members.

Industrial output down 0.5 percent yoy

India's industrial output likely shrunk in March from a year earlier, its third fall in four months, as the global economic slowdown hit exports and domestic demand remained soft, a poll showed.

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The median forecast in the poll of 13 analysts was for an annual decline of 0.5 in the index of industrial production (IIP) in March, the final month of the 2008/09 fiscal year.

Output fell an annual 1.2 per cent in February, according to provisional figures. Output rose 0.4 per cent in January and fell 0.6 per cent in December.

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"It's going to be flattish, near the trough. Exports remain weak and domestic demand is also subdued," said D.K. Joshi, principal economist at rating agency Crisil.

Some economists expect industrial output grew less than 4 per cent in India's fiscal year that just ended in March, less than half the 8.1 per cent growth rate of the previous year.

Economists expect output growth to improve in coming months as government stimulus measures and aggressive rates cuts by the central bank take hold, with demand for consumer goods, vehicles and building materials showing signs of picking up.

Macquarie Securities said industrial growth may reverse its weaker trend from April as motor vehicles, cement and steel are already showing signs of increased activity.

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A survey of purchasing managers showed expansion of manufacturing activities in April, its first uptick in five months.

Car sales, a gauge of consumer demand, rose 4.2 per cent in April from a year earlier, but sales of trucks and buses were down 11.3 per cent.

India's factory output sharply slowed last year as high borrowing costs and the global credit crunch forced firms to delay expansion plans and then cut output as demand for goods in overseas markets fell sharply.

Policymakers say the economy may have grown less than 7 per cent in 2008/09, slowing sharply from 9 per cent or more seen in previous three years. The central bank expects the growth rate to slow further to 6 per cent in 2009/10, which would be the weakest in seven years.

India grew 6.5 percent in FY09 , inflation to fall further - PM

India's economy grew an estimated 6.5 per cent in the just-ended 2008/09 fiscal year and consumer price inflation is expected to moderate in five to six months, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Monday.

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A global economic slump and slowdown in domestic demand have weakened economic growth in Asia's third largest economy, but falls in commodity prices have helped moderate prices.

"The wholesale price inflation is already down to around 1 per cent and there is a time lag for the consumer price inflation to also fall," Singh told a news conference at Ludhiana. "But I am sure CPI inflation will moderate in five to six months," he said at the last lap of a month-long election campaign in the northern state of Punjab.

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India's wholesale price index rose 0.70 per cent in the 12 months to April 25, above the previous week's annual rise of 0.57 per cent.

Indian economy to recover from mid-2009 - Macquaire

(29-4-2009 Indian economy updates) - Indian economy will begin to recover from the middle of this year, thanks to the fiscal and monetary measures taken up by the government, but the outcome of the ongoing general election remains a legitimate concern, global research firm Macquarie has said.

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Macquarie said, "Our view remains that the largely domestically-driven Indian economy will begin to recover palpably from mid-year onwards."

The double-cylinder fiscal and monetary response has been aggressive and already paying dividend, the research firm said but added that "political uncertainty over the outcome for the ongoing general election remains a legitimate concern".

The other factors likely to contribute include that India is relatively less dependent on exports, its export profile is not heavily dependent on electronic or automotive shipments and the domestic fiscal and policy response has been aggressive and effective.

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Macquarie further said the Reserve Bank of India appears to be approaching the end of the policy rate-cutting cycle, but banks have more room to cut their lending rates more aggressively, which in turn should boost economic activity.

"Indeed, the broader setting is evolving nicely to position the economy for a better second-half of FY'10. Currently, we forecast a full-year GDP growth of 5.5 per cent for FY'10 following an estimated 6.5 per cent in the last fiscal year," Macquarie said.

posted under - economy of india, indian economy updates, economic crises, india economy, indian economy blog

Indian Forex reserves at USD 252 billion

(20/4/2009 Indian Economy updates) - India's foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 252 billion as of end-March, declining by USD 57.7 billion over the previous year, the Reserve Bank said on Monday.

The RBI said in its Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments in 2008-09 said, the overall approach to the management of India's foreign exchange reserves in recent years reflects the changing composition of the balance of payments and the 'liquidity risks' associated with different types of flows and other requirements.

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"Taking these factors into account, India's foreign exchange reserves continued to be at a level consistent with the rate of growth, the size of the external sector in the economy and the size of risk-adjusted capital flows," RBI said.

posted under - economy of india, indian economy updates, indian forex reserves, RBI updates, indian economy blog, economy of india updates, forex updates, india forex reserves

India ranks second in industrial production among developing countries

India ranks among the top five developing countries in production of six major industrial items, including textiles, motor vehicles, chemicals and basic metals, according to a UN agency UNIDO.

In four out of the six industrial products - textiles, chemicals and chemical products, basic metals and electrical machinery and apparatus - India figures at number two only behind China.

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India's annual growth rate of manufacturing value added (MVA) has risen from 6.9 per cent in the period 2000-2005 to 12.3 per cent between 2005 and 2007, according to the year book of the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO).

It found that the share of MVA in India's gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to 14.8 per cent in 2006 from 13.8 per cent in 2001.

UNIDO found that the developing countries now produced almost 30 per cent of the world MVA compared to 16 per cent in 1990.

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"The increasing share of developing world vis-a-vis industrialised countries is also explained by the shift of location of manufacturing, especially assembling of final products from industrialised countries to developing countries," the UNIDO said.

posted under - industrial production, indian economy, economy of india, indian industrial output, output updates, indian economy updates, economy of india

Economic Crises leads to delay in Financial Reforms - Report

Pressure to support India's economy and drive growth during the global economic and financial crisis could impede efforts to put the country's fiscal house in order, a report by the government and central bank said on Monday.

"Given the current pressures to maintain growth at a reasonably high level it would not be possible to resume the fiscal correction path after the current financial turmoil," the report on the country's financial sector said.

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The report said that once the current turmoil had passed, fiscal discipline needed to be reasserted to support growth.

"For the growth momentum to be sustained, it is necessary to return to the path of fiscal prudence at both the central and state governments," the report said. The federal government's finances have suffered in the 2008/09 fiscal year that ends on March 31, after making solid gains over the past few years, as a slowing economy has hit revenues and increased spending.

The government expects the deficit to widen to 6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008/09, more than double its initial estimate. Analysts say the country's combined deficit, including state deficits and off-budget items such as fuel subsidy costs, is around 10 per cent.

The six-volume report is a comprehensive review of the country's financial system. The committee that prepared it was formed by the government and central bank in 2006, and was headed by Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan.

posted under - Indian economy updates, Crises, Economy of india, Indian Economy, Economic reforms, Indian economy blog, india finance updates
source -www.economictimes.com

Wholesale Inflation at all time low of 0.44 percent

Inflation for the week ended March 7 fell to an all time low of 0.44%. The sharp fall in inflation was due to several factors including easing prices of food articles and fuel items along with a high base effect. Annual inflation as measured by Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was at 2.42% in the week before and at 7.78% in the corresponding week last year.

The inflation for food articles eased considerably to 7.34%. It had touched a 10-year high of 11.64% in the beginning of the year. Prices of food articles for the week ended March 7 touched the lowest since the beginning of the year.

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The sharp fall in annual inflation as measured by fuel index was due to fall in prices of jet fuel and electricity for agriculture each of which fell by 8%. The fuel prices are currently witnessing negative inflation to the range of 6% and are expected to dip further into negative territory.

The higher base effect along with low demand in the economy is expected to keep inflation in negative territory for 5 to 6 months." Inflation will turn negative starting from April and will remain so until the end of 2009," said Tushar Poddar, an economist with Goldman Sachs Inc. in Mumbai. "We expect the Reserve Bank to ease liquidity" to support growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said this week India should rely more on monetary policy to support the economy as high public debt makes fiscal efforts difficult.

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Retail inflation as measured by the consumer price index for industrial workers has moved up to 10.45% in January, the highest since December 1998. The consumer-price index for farm workers increased 11.62% in January from a year earlier, following an 11.14% in December. The central bank said this month consumer prices will decline after a lag, without specifying a time frame.

The commerce ministry today revised the rate for the week to Jan. 10 to 5.46 percent from 5.60%.

posted under - inflation updates, indian economy blog, economy of india, indian inflation updates, march inflation updates, economic crises updates

Economy may grow 6.5-7 pc in next fiscal year - (09-10)

The economy may expand between 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent in the year to March 2010, as stimulus measures are expected to revive growth, a member of Planning Commission said on Wednesday. Abhijit Sen, however, said there was need for more fiscal and monetary steps to maintain growth momentum in Asia's third largest economy hit by global slump and sluggish domestic demand.

"We have done a worst-case calculation on the basis of no effect of the stimulus and what we know currently about the world economy. On that basis, the worst case scenario is about 5 per cent growth," he said after a business conference.

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But the stimulus packages already announced were expected to ratchet up growth rate by 1.5 to 2 percentage points over and above the minimum assessment, he said. "That would take the growth rate to 6.5 to 7 per cent." Earlier, the government estimated 2008/09 growth at 7.1 per cent, but analysts have raised doubts after December quarter data showed a lower-than-expected 5.3 per cent expansion and the global economic situation worsened.

May be this prediction might be lowered down in later half of 2009 as the condition doesn't seem to improve in near future. who know's??

posted under - Indian economy blog, indian economy updates, economy of india, economic crises updates

IMF to India - more monetary steps required for fighting slowdown

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) on Wednesday advised India to initiate more monetary steps to battle the country's slowing economic growth, which the international multilateral agency expects to moderate to 6.25 per cent in the current fiscal and fall further by one percentage point in 2009-10.

With inflation softening to a six-year low of 2.43 per cent, there is scope for further easing of monetary policy, the IMF said in its review of the economy following Article IV consultations with the Indian authorities.

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"A number of (IMF) directors saw scope for further monetary easing, in (the) light of the projected decline in inflationary pressures and the need to reinforce confidence and sustain bank credit," the review said.

The IMF expects average inflation to moderate to 2 per cent in 2009-10 from about 8.8 per cent in the current fiscal. Inflation has been coming down consistently after touching a peak of 12.91 per cent in August last year.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the current fiscal has been projected at 6.25 per cent by the IMF, as against the government's forecast of 7.1 per cent.

The IMF expects the growth rate in the next fiscal (2009-10), beginning less than a fortnight from now, to fall to 5.25 per cent. As part of the annual exercise to review the economies of the member countries, the IMF's executive board had held consultations with the Indian authorities on February 6.

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While suggesting that India focus on monetary measures, the IMF cautioned that additional expenditure and more tax reliefs for fighting economic slowdown could raise public debt to unsustainable levels.

Noting that the key short-run policy objective should be to sustain liquidity and credit flows, the review said "monetary and structural policies will have to continue to carry most of the burden of adjustment".

And already the fiscal deficit of india has increased many times and government is still giving more sops to business houses and people just to get a WOW factor ahead of 15th general elections.

posted under - Economic crises updates, indian economy updates, economy of india, indian economy blog

Economy Updates - Fiscal deficit at 7.8 pc of GDP

Indian Economy Updates - Including bonds issued to oil and fertiliser companies, the government's fiscal deficit for the year to March is estimated at 4.22 trillion rupees ($84 billion), the minister of state for finance said on Thursday. That equates to a total federal fiscal gap of 7.8 percent of gross domestic product.

Last week, the finance minister said in the budget speech the federal fiscal deficit would rise to 3.27 trillion rupees, or 6 percent of GDP, this financial year, but that did not include the off-balance sheet oil and fertiliser bonds.

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In a written reply to parliament, Pawan Kumar Bansal said a rise in global oil and food prices had lifted the government's subsidy bill, while stimulus packages to shield the economy from the global slump had raised expenditure.

"The fiscal deficit including the liability on account of securities issued during the year to oil marketing companies and fertiliser companies is (4.22 trillion) rupees," he said.

On Tuesday, Standard & Poor's cut its outlook on the country's long-term sovereign credit rating to negative from stable projecting the country's deficit, including off-budget items such as oil and fertiliser bonds, to increase to 11.4 percent in 2008/09, up from 5.7 percent in the previous year.

posted under - fiscal deficit, indian economy blog, economy of india, fiscal deficit updates, indian economy, economy of india, economic recession updates

India's Fiscal Deficit increasing further Condition Alarming

Our Country's current fiscal deficit situation is not comfortable, a top economic adviser said on Monday, while adding the economy was expected to grow at least 7 percent in the 2009/10 fiscal year.

"The fiscal deficit situation is not comfortable. It is important to go back to a comfortable fiscal situation as and when the economy starts improving," Suresh Tendulkar, chairman of Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, told a conference.

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"The FRBM Act is not going to be followed this year," he said referring to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act. Tendulkar also said lower interest rates were likely to come into play, but he did not elaborate.

Tendulkar said fiscal and monetary packages were infusing liquidity and would stimulate the economy. "The lagged effect of the stimulus packages are likely to take effect in the last quarter of this fiscal."

posted under - Indian Economy Updates, Economy of India, Indian Economy Blog, Indian Economy updates, Fiscal Deficit, Indian Fiscal Deficit
source - REUTERS

Govt hints at fiscal sops as well in vote-on-account

A day after stating that there is no constitutional bar on the interim budget announcing stimulus package, the government today said it will look at "everything" to push the industrial growth impacted by global downturn.

"This is still under formulation," Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said here when asked whether the government would unveil a package in the vote-on-account on February 16.

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Asked whether the package would contain the fiscal incentives as well, the minister said, "We will look at everything which will stimulate economy".

Home Minister P Chidambaram had said there was no constitutional bar on the government from announcing measures in the interim budget in the run-up to the general elections.

"Constitutionally there is no bar. But what the (finance) minister will do I cannot say," Chidambaram said when asked if the government can announce policy measures to stimulate economy in the vote on account.

posted under - Indian economy updates, indian economy blog, economy of india, indian policy makers, effect of crises on india
source - www.economictimes.com