Key rates decision after analysing Inflation problem root - RBI

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary stance will depend on whether it perceives inflation as stemming from excessive liquidity or due to supply constraints, the country's top civil servant said.

On Tuesday, Cabinet Secretary K.M. Chandrasekhar allayed concerns of persistently high prices, reiterating the government's forecast of headline inflation easing to 5-6 percent by the end of the year.

India's annual headline inflation stayed above 10 percent for the fifth straight month in June, cementing expectations the RBI will raise interest rates for a second time this month to contain price pressures.

A majority of economists expect the RBI to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points in its quarterly review on July 27 and tighten policy further in coming quarters, a new Reuters poll showed.

"A call will have to be taken by the Reserve Bank (RBI) on whether inflation is on account of high money supply or is it on account of certain sectoral reasons, some supply constraints," Chandrasekhar told a news conference.

Some analysts have pegged capacity constraints in the rapidly expanding economy as the main reason for a surge in non-food inflation, pointing out a slowdown in May industrial output, despite robust domestic consumer demand.

Further, expansion in the M3 money supply, the broadest measure of liquidity in the system, has just picked up after slowing down since the year began and lags credit expansion.

RBI all set to curb inflation

Concerned over the spiralling food prices, the Reserve Bank has indicated at tightening money supply to contain the rising inflation pressures.

The Reserve Bank is slated to come out with the third quarter review of its monetary policy on January 29 amid intense speculations that it may signal an interest hike to tighten money supply to contain the rising inflation.

The food inflation was nearly 19 per cent last week while the overall wholesale price inflation rose massively to 4.78 per cent in November compared to 1.34 per cent in October.

The deputy governor further said the near-term policy challenges are clearly conditioned by the evolving growth-inflation outcome that supports shifting the balance of policy focus on managing the recovery and on containment of inflation.

inflation updates - Annual inflation at 0.61 percent

(28/5/09 - Inflation updates) - The wholesale price index rose 0.61 percent in the 12 months to May 16, matching the previous week's annual rise, government data showed today.

It was below a median forecast of 0.74 percent in a Reuters poll of analysts. The annual inflation rate was 8.66 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

It may be noted that The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is released weekly.

Annual Inflation at 0.61 percent

India's wholesale price index rose 0.61 percent in the 12 months to May 9, above the previous week's annual rise of 0.48 percent, government data showed on Thursday.

It matched a median forecast of 0.61 percent in a Reuters poll of analysts. The annual inflation rate was 8.57 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

Also Read :
-Indian Elections Updates
-BRIC countries stabilising world economy
-Highest paid CEO's of world
-America's Top 20 CEO's ever list
-How Infosys managed to increase YoY profit
-Effect of Recession on Indian Economy
-Economies hit by recession

The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is released weekly.

Inflation at 0.3 perc as on May 2nd

India's annual inflation rate is expected to have fallen back towards zero at the start of May after rising in the previous three weeks, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Wednesday. The median forecast of 11 analysts was for 0.3 per cent rise in the wholesale price index in the 12 months to May 2, compared with a 0.7 per cent rise the previous week.

Also Read :
-BRIC countries stabilising world economy
-Highest paid CEO's of world
-America's Top 20 CEO's ever list
-How Infosys managed to increase YoY profit
-Effect of Recession on Indian Economy
-Economies hit by recession

The price index is forecast to rise from a week earlier but at a slower pace than the rise a year earlier, when prices were rising rapidly, leading to a fall in the annual inflation rate. "A sharp rise in the index is expected week-on-week, but lower growth year-over-year is seen because of a high statistical base," said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.

"The weekly spike is largely due to primary articles, secondly the market-determined prices of fuel components, and also rising input costs are getting reflected in the manufactured product prices," she said.

The inflation rate had fallen to 0.18 per cent in early April, its lowest reading since annual records started in 1977/78. The index had been on a downward trend since last September, after a fall in global commodity prices and cuts in state-set fuel prices, but steadied in March and early April before turning up in recent weeks.

Inflation at 0.65 percent on April 25, 2009

(Inflation Updates - April 2009) - Annual inflation rate is expected to have risen for the third consecutive week in late April, because of a sustained increase in food, mineral and manufacturing prices, a poll showed on Wednesday.

The median forecast of 11 analysts was for 0.65 per cent rise in the wholesale price index in the 12 months to April 25, up from 0.57 per cent rise the previous week.

Also Read :
-Highest paid CEO's of world
-America's Top 20 CEO's ever list
-How Infosys managed to increase YoY profit
-Effect of Recession on Indian Economy
-Economies hit by recession
-Plan for World Economy Revival
-World's Strongest economies list
-US Economic recession-how it started

"Inflation is expected to rise largely due to the general rise in food prices. Inflation falling below zero per cent has been postponed for a while now, may be until early June," said Deepali Bhargava, an economist with ING Vysya Bank said.

The index had been on a downward trend since last September, after a fall in global commodity prices, but steadied in March and has moved upward in the past two readings.

The weekly wholesale price index is more closely watched than the monthly consumer price index (CPI) because it includes more products and is published on a more frequent basis.

Inflation lowers but food items prices skyrocket

Annual inflation fell to a three- decade low of 0.26 per cent, although prices of essential food items rose by up to 17 per cent, shows data released just days ahead of the country going to general elections.

Wholesale prices-based inflation declined by 0.05 percentage points for the week ended March 28 from 0.31 per cent in the previous week.

Also Read :
-US institutions reluctant to end crises
-How Infosys managed to increase YoY profit
-Effect of Recession on Indian Economy
-Economies hit by recession
-Plan for World Economy Revival
-World's Strongest economies list
-US Economic recession-how it started

Even as the point-to-point inflation is near zero level, the average rate of price rise works out to be 8.4 per cent for the fiscal 2008-09 against 4.7 per cent in 2007-08.

Edible items like salt, sugar, milk, cereals, pulses, manufactured food products, spices and fruits were selling at higher rates for the week under review than a year ago.

In the backdrop of fall in sugarcane production, sugar prices soared by 17 per cent leaving a bitter taste. Inflation has become a key election issue, with political parties promising cheap rations for the poor.

Salt prices too went up by 10.68 per cent, milk by 6.22 per cent, cereals by 9.61 per cent, pulses 8.46 per cent and fruits by 8.02 per cent. However, drop in prices of minerals, metals, fuel, power and lubricants helped pull down the over all inflation to a three decade low.

Also Read :
-US institutions reluctant to end crises
-How Infosys managed to increase YoY profit
-Effect of Recession on Indian Economy
-Economies hit by recession
-Plan for World Economy Revival
-World's Strongest economies list
-US Economic recession-how it started

With the inflation dropping to such a low, analysts feel that the Reserve Bank of India may signal further cut in interest rates. RBI Governor D Subbarao reviewed the interest rate scenario with the heads of commercial banks in Mumbai yesterday.

"Inflation is low due to crisis in demand and crisis of confidence. It is low (also) due to base effect," said economic research body, RIS' Director-General Nagesh Kumar.

The Finance Ministry described the year-on-year price rise as "stable". It said the inflation of primary articles declined for the week ended March 28, 2009 from the previous week.

However, there was 3.46 per cent point-to-point annualised price rise for these articles. Further disaggregation of food articles shows that several items were selling at higher prices.

posted under - Inflation, Indian inflation updates, April inflation updates, Inflation at all time low, indian economy updates, economy of india, india and inflation
source - www.economictimes.com

Inflation down at 10.68%

Inflation fell below 11% to 10.68% during the week ended October 18 from 11.07% a week earlier.Earlier, a poll showed that the inflation rate was expected to have eased below 11% in mid-October for the first time in almost five months, thanks to falling commodity prices.

Eleven economists forecast a median 10.82% rise for wholesale price index based inflation rate in the 12 months to October 18, compared with 11.07% a week earlier, the slowest annual rise since late May.

also read:
DJIA, NASDAQ, BSE, NSE october closing rates
World's Strongest and largest economies list

"Everything has fallen," said Kaushik Das, an economist with Kotak Mahindra Bank. "Oil prices fell sharply, the manufacturing index has come down and even the food and commodity prices which were pushing up inflation have started coming down."

The wholesale price index rose 11.07% in the 12 months to October 11, below the earlier week's annual rise of 11.44%. Inflation for the week ended August 16 was revised up to 12.82% from 12.40%.

In early August, the inflation rate had hit 12.91%, the highest reading since annual numbers in the current data series became available in April 1995. It jumped into double digits after a hike in government-controlled retail fuel prices in June.

Also read:
DJIA, NASDAQ, BSE, NSE october closing rates
World's Strongest and largest economies list


Commenting on the current economic scenario, the finance minister recently said that although inflation was still high, the rate of price rise would moderate further as global commodities and fuel prices continue to soften.

The government will also continue to take steps to moderate inflation and cut wasteful expenditure as it expects its fiscal deficit to swell beyond the 2008/09 target, the finance ministry said.

-source economictimes.indiatimes.com

Inflation to hit Indian Inc's growth plans - report

The 13-year-record inflation figures were announced on a day when Hindalco Industries announced its plan to retire loans taken to finance the Novelis acquisition. The Aditya Birla flagship company, which has about $3.03 billion as debt because of a bridge loan taken to fund the acquisition, will be tapping the market soon to meet the bridge payout.

“As long as we can pass on the cost to the market, it is ok,” managing director Debu Bhattacharya told reporters on Friday. “If we can’t, then it will be bad.” Inflation rate surged to a 13-year-high due to high crude and commodity prices, putting a question mark on growth estimates and on the ability of the Indian market to absorb any further increase in input costs.

“It’s (inflation) very unfortunate and certainly a thing that we can do without,” said Tata Sons’ finance director Ishaat Hussain. “But it has been driven by high oil and commodity prices, largely on account of external factors. It will require measures which will impact growth. Borrowing will become costlier and growth momentum will be affected.”

Indian companies, large and small, have drawn up large plans to expand capacities. Since borrowing will become costlier, the future of such expansion plans looks uncertain. However, the infrastructure sector may not be affected as deferring such projects would be even costlier.
India is scheduled to spend $500 billion to develop various infrastructure projects. B Hariharan, group finance director of the Gautam Thapar-controlled Ballarpur Industries, says “The high inflation will slow down the manufacturing sector. Although expansion projects will be affected, those that will be funded by domestic debt will be hard hit, while companies depending on foreign loans may be relatively better off,” he added.

On Thursday, KPMG said India would likely see the largest global investment in the manufacturing sector, with about 25% of large global corporates expected to invest in the country. Investment in other sectors such as in industrial products, will also be large, with India likely to displace the US to gain the second rank after China, said the report, which was based on a survey of 300 corporate investment strategists from 15 economies

Rising Food Prices a concern | Inflation above 5% for february

India needs to be vigilant about rising food prices but achieving a goal of 9 percent economic growth on average over the next few years is feasible, Montek Singh Ahluwalia said in an interview.

Ahluwalia, the deputy head of India's planning commission, said India should consider setting up a sovereign wealth fund to make use of its swelling foreign exchange reserves, although any such move would take time.

Annual inflation accelerated in late February to 5.02 percent, the highest in nearly nine months and above the 5 percent level the central bank wants to contain it at for the fiscal year ending on March 31.

"I think that an inflation rate somewhere between 4.0-5.0 percent, nearer the lower end of that range, is what one can defend. However a lot depends on the composition of inflation," Ahluwalia said in the interview late last week

Prices such as food and fuel should also be kept under "a modest degree" of control, he said. Food prices overseas were rising but the government had taken measures to keep domestic prices under control and internal food stocks were satisfactory.

"So if we have a normal monsoon this year we should not be in difficulty. But constant vigilance is needed and the government gives high priority to this part of the agenda," he said.

The annual southwest monsoon lasts from June to September. Only about 40 percent of farmland is irrigated and the rains can determine spending and consumption patterns in rural areas.

Growth target

India's economy is forecast to grow 8.7 percent in the fiscal year ending March 31, down from an 18-year high of 9.6 percent in 2006/07. Growth in the October-December quarter slowed to an annual 8.4 percent from 8.9 percent in July-September.

The government has a five-year plan with a goal of average growth of 9 percent for the years to fiscal 2011/12, with a target of 10 percent for that last year.

Ahluwalia, one of the top economic advisers to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said the target was feasible.

"I agree the next two quarters don't look good for the international economy but I don't think we need to alter our medium-term prospects on that account," he said.

"There are a lot of underlying strengths in the Indian economy that are building up, which augur well for growth."

Ahluwalia supported creating a sovereign wealth fund to earn better returns on India's $300 billion foreign exchange reserves.

"You do want breathing space to manage short-term securities but our reserves greatly exceed what is needed for such management," he said.

"So quite frankly it makes a lot of sense to experiment with foreign wealth funds to earn better returns, but I doubt if we can do that very quickly," he said, adding there were restrictions on how the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could deploy reserve assets.

Sovereign wealth funds in China, the Middle East and elsewhere have come into existence due to surging oil prices and large U.S. trade deficits. But some U.S. and European policy makers are concerned they could take investment decisions based on political rather than commercial grounds.

"India will probably be viewed much better than many others as a sovereign wealth investor and perhaps we should cash in on that. However, this is an area for the Finance Ministry and the RBI to take a view" Montek said.