RBI all set to curb inflation

Concerned over the spiralling food prices, the Reserve Bank has indicated at tightening money supply to contain the rising inflation pressures.

The Reserve Bank is slated to come out with the third quarter review of its monetary policy on January 29 amid intense speculations that it may signal an interest hike to tighten money supply to contain the rising inflation.

The food inflation was nearly 19 per cent last week while the overall wholesale price inflation rose massively to 4.78 per cent in November compared to 1.34 per cent in October.

The deputy governor further said the near-term policy challenges are clearly conditioned by the evolving growth-inflation outcome that supports shifting the balance of policy focus on managing the recovery and on containment of inflation.

Inflation above 8% mark - government helpless

Inflation touched 8% mark for first time in one year and government has said that it is helpless and inflation is going out of government control.

However inflation has now become a global problem and all the developing as well as developed countries are facing it.

Governments are pretending to respond. In the UK, Mr. Gordon Brown wants to assemble experts to debate solutions. The Indian finance minister says that western nations are diverting land for producing expensive bio-fuels to replace the expensive crude oil. Surely, that is part of the problem. But that does not explain the jump in the price of rice. Rice is not diverted to bio-fuel production.


In India, the response has been to reduce import duties, impose export caps and accuse manufacturers and distributors of collusion and cartel-like behaviour. Different ministers speak in different voices. Together, these pronouncements do not constitute a policy whole.
In simple terms, prices reflect the balance of supply and demand of something. When prices go up, it is a reflection – and not a consequence – of supply going down or of demand going up or both. When it happens for just one or few commodities, it is possible to blame middle-men of hoarding or manufacturers of cartel-like behaviour. When it happens in many commodities, it is futile to blame one industry or a few producers.


Usually, the source lies in some policy measures and their implementation. To make it clear, we are not dismissing the importance of factors like climate change, diversion of land for production of bio-fuels and more importantly, stagnation or even outright decline in agricultural productivity in countries like India and China. Again, they explain inflation in food and agriculture commodities. These factors do not explain inflation in crude oil and copper, for example.


If we have to identify a single or the most important explanation for the recent development in prices of many commodities, the answer lies in examining the behaviour of global central banks.
Of course, in any broad-brush analysis or conclusions, there is the risk that we miss the exceptions who behaved differently and correctly. For example, within the constraints imposed by the political system, Reserve Bank of India has done a very good job of trying to shield the Indian economy from the cycles of boom and bust. Similarly, if the Australian and New Zealand economies still face the risk of boom and bust, it is not because of their central banks but in spite of their best efforts.


The bulk of the blame has to be assigned to the American Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China. In the case of China as in the case of India and in many other developing countries, the central bank is not independent. It is subject to political influence. The Federal Reserve Board of America is, in some ways, a similar predicament. It is subject to the oversight and pulls and pressures of the democratically elected Congress members. Further, since it was founded by banks actually, it ends up coming to the rescue of banks sometimes to the detriment of the public.


In 2001-2003, it cut the Federal funds rate to 1.0%. It thus rescued the economy from the collapse of the technology bubble in 2000. Thus, it replaced the stock market bubble with a housing bubble. When the housing bubble appeared to be weakening, it refused to tighten regulations and allowed it to continue. Too many loans were made to people who should not have been lent. That is the root cause of the present problem.


In order to address the resulting loan defaults, stress on banks and their balance sheets, the Federal Reserve has allowed banks to borrow at cheap rates from it. Money is available to banks in the open market but at higher cost. Some of the banks might not have survived. But, that would have also left a lesson for other banks that they would not have forgotten for a long time. Excessive risk-taking would have been curbed. Instead, the cheap money is perhaps being channelled into speculation on commodities prices. After all, banks are not going to create more mortgage loans at least for quite some time.


Somewhat different has been the behaviour of China but it achieves the same result. China has kept its currency cheap. Keeping the currency cheap requires interest rates to remain low, in comparison to other countries but also in relation to economic growth. China has done that. Low interest rates means capital is plenty. So, capital-intensive growth has flourished. That has placed tremendous demand on resources worldwide such as crude oil, coal, steel and other industrial metals. It continues to import rising quantities of iron ore, copper and crude oil. Incidentally, it has also led to China supporting many tyrannical regimes in Africa including that of Zimbabwe. Recently, it sent a shipment of arms to Zimbabwe but faced an avalanche of protest and had to recall that shipment.


Perhaps, it is possible that American banks know that there won’t be any change in China’s demand for commodities in the near future, at least until the end of the Olympics. China may be reluctant to change course fearing unknown and uncertain consequences. If so, it argues for further rise in the price of commodities. Both their behaviour and bets might be feeding off each other. That is not good news for the rest of the world.


After all, we cannot influence the Federal Reserve. So, how should policymakers respond? Unfortunately, the answer is that they should respond differently from what they have done until now. Banning exports of agricultural commodities exposes the hollowness of farmer-friendly policies. Farmers should be allowed, with appropriate guidance, to sell to the highest bidder – local or global – and derive the maximum gains from the global shortage. Such a price signal would also encourage productivity improvement in farmland and hence boost crop production. More land would be brought under cultivation.


At the same time, poor households – rural or urban – could be directly subsidised with cash transfer to be able to pay the higher price.
The same principle can be extended to the price of hydrocarbon products such as petrol, cooking gas, diesel and kerosene. Consumers and producers should receive the price signal. Without that, their respective behaviours would not change and shortages or glut would persist.
At the same time, since supply of food and other commodities would take time to respond to price signals, central banks should be allowed to restrain demand in the short-run with tight monetary policy. That means higher cash reserve ratio or higher interest rates or both. That might be unpopular or politically unacceptable. But, effective medicines never taste sweet. Only placebos do.



The chances of such sound policies being pursued are close to nil particularly as many democratic governments, including India, approach elections soon. Authoritarian governments do not care much for public opinion.
Given such a low chance for sound economic decision-making, prospects for a sustained decline in inflation should be judged remote. That is not good news as it is a stealth tax on the public and erodes their purchasing power. Consequently, it reduces affordability for many assets. As demand drops, inflation affects revenues for companies and squeezes margins through cost pressures. That does not augur well for the stock market.



The stock market in India has performed well in recent times. Many other global markets have staged a similar recovery. That is due to misplaced optimism on the American economy. As discussed above, right policies would be missing and hence the anticipated quick economic turnaround in America would be elusive. Consequently, risky assets globally would retrace their recent gains. Therefore, Indian stocks would fail to build on their recent gains. On the other hand, the likelihood of continued high global and local inflation would result in a resumption of the uptrend in gold price that has been recently disrupted. Therefore, investors who do not expect inflation to recede know exactly what they should be selling and what they should be buying.

Weakening Indian Rupee -and Reason behind it

It has been noticed that indian national rupee(INR) is weakening and it is also clear that US dollar is weakening too!! so why is INR weakening????

This question might be arising in every economist mind and they might not be sure why there is decline in value of indian rupee??

Indian economy grew at nearly 10% last fiscal year but the growth rate of indian economy projected for this fiscal year would never be met and finance minister has to rethink about the growth rate percentage which he kept in mind while making the Union finance budget for year 2008-09 in february this year.

Last year the foreign direct investments(FDI) in India crossed every target and was in huge amounts, US $ was flowing into indian subcontinent as water due to which US $ was wandering at under 40 INR mark till february 2008. this was the time when USA was considering india as a potential country . Since at that time US $ was coming to india itself so the reserve bank of India(RBI) stopped purchasing the US $ to keep $ buffer (every country keeps US $ into it's buffer for controlling the economic conditions of that particular country.


When US companies felt that there were few countries in Asia and Africa which offered better oppurtunities then india so the companies which had invested in india started to take out their money for investing in other countries due to this action of the US companies the US$ inflow into india started declining and Indian rupee started weakening.


Now RBi had to come into action and had to purchase US $ on it's own for maintaining the buffer level of US $ in Indian subcontinent but this action of RBI can never match to the rate when US $ were being invested in Indian subcontinent by US companies directly so the INR started weakening as the reserve US $ in RBI's buffer declined and rupee weakened further.


Now indian rupee can become strong only in case the investment from US companies start pouring into india again at the same rate at which it was in previous fiscal years. Moreover tremendous increase in crude oil prices are also weakening the india rupee further as the oil import bill by indian companies has increased almost 50% and all are incurring losses.


We should also be prepared for huge rise in petrol and diesel retail prices in future , the rise in petrol would have been in order of INR 10/litre for the government if government passed whole burden onto the general population and similar increase would be there in case of prices of diesel. and it is evident that inflation would also increase further in coming future.

So government has increased commision on filling stations by INR 29/Kilolitre for petrol and INR 31/Kilolitre for diesel however retail prices has increased by INR 0.04 / litre so people have been effected to less extent with rise in petrol/diesel prices . However crude oil prices will touch $200 /barrel mark in this year itself so further rise in petrol and diesel prices is on the cards and inflation will rise further in near future.

Inflation to soar further, likely to touch 7.5 % mark

ASSOCHAM on Saturday predicted that it would continue to soar for next three to four months, and may even touch the 7.5 per cent mark.

"The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation rate which is already at the highest in the last three years, could even surpass the 7.5 percent mark," predicts ASSOCHAM President Venugopal Dhoot.

In order to check inflation, the Cabinet Committee on Prices (CCP) chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday, decided to abolish import duty on all crude edible oils, including palm and soya, and banned the export of non-basmati rice and pulses to contain inflation.

The Central Government also decided to raise the Minimum Export Price of basmati rice to 1,200 dollars per ton from 1100 dollars, to balance the demand " supply in the domestic market and to cut import duty on butter and clarified butter (ghee) from 40 per cent to 30 per cent, besides, the 15 per cent import duty on maize was abolished, applicable on import of up to five lakh tons.

The CCP also advised states to impose limits on stocks of commodities under the Essential Commodities Act, besides asking steel producers not to raise prices.

The study done by the business conglomerate also reveals that the Central Government's efforts to contain inflation will come start-yielding results by August when inflation is likely to fall at of four per cent.

Experts believe that after all possible measures taken by the government, now, everyone is waiting for Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) annual credit policy that will be revealed on April 29.

The industry body has asked the RBI to increase the interest rates, specifically the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to restrain liquidity.

The problem of inflation doesn't seem to be India-centric with China too struggling with a rising inflation rate of over nine percent.

According to analysts, the announcement of Sixth Pay Commission recommendations, and provisions for enhanced expenditure on social sectors in the Budget 2008-09 coupled with rising crude oil prices have also raised expectations about high inflation.