Time for consolidation of indian IT Companies has arrived

Indian IT industry has withstood the 2008 recession well, All thanks to the cash pile and the margins and the meager pay salaries over the last two years, The reason for coming out even strongly is the cost cutting measures ranging from sending fewer people on-site, some price negotiations, giving no salary hike for two consuctive years to employees(on name of recession), firing people secretly(so that stock does not plummets) etc, etc, this list goes on.

Putting together these all measures have been very good for the biggies in Indian IT industry like - TCS, Infosys, Wipro etc. These companies have lots of people on their bench hence lowering the bid price in recession time helped in increasing the percentage of billed employees.

This above scenario has not been possible for mid tier IT vendors like, Patni, Tech Mahindra, Mastek all of them still showing decrease in profits YoY, The reason is simple The biggies of Indian IT are eating their food by bidding at the same price of these mid tier companies, thus taking even smaller projects on which the mid tier IT Companies depends. Since the potential client is now well aware of these biggies they prefer to give new projects to these rather then mid tier companies which is the biggest area of concern for these smaller companies.

They can't compete with these biggies thanks to the bench strength and the cash pile of these bigger companies, Now in such a scenario where there looks no hope for smaller and mid tier IT Companies, the best method for coping is to be acquired by the biggies or bid to these biggies at even lesser rate for further outsourcing(looks rare possibility as margins are already wafer thin), adding further to IT companies owes is the increase in Visa fees by US Government.
Thus after Indian IT comes out of the recession completely we can possibly see consolidation in Indian IT space. This would definitely help in making global companies which can compete with likes of Accenture, IBM much more efficiently and effectively. Hence it would not be surprise if news about one of the biggies acquire a mid tier or smaller IT companies which would definitly help in the niche domains where the smaller IT companies work.

Hence I can conclude that time has finally arrived when we can see consolidation in indian IT industry which would definitely make Indian IT companies competency even bigger and more powerful. thus offering some serious competition to US biggies like Accenture and IBM.

India's 5 million aid to Pakistan - analysis

It might look very stupid thing being done by Indian government by giving $ 5 million aid to flood hit Pakistan. to me personally it looks a very optimistic move and the aid amount will surely have backing of every political party(I'll tell reason in this post).

In my thinking advisors to PMO and other central ministers have played a very nice move in the ongoing game of chess with Pakistan. This would help in mounting global pressure on Pakistan later in supressing terrorism globally, I have not heard about any big terrorist activity in pass year and half, which is only due to fact that global pressure is mounting day by day on Pakistan.

USA also put pressure on Pakistan in accepting India's aid. Now the question is how this would help Indian Government in it's actual motive behind the move. After giving aid one thing is sure that in the eyes of Pakistan(particularly it's people after reading this news about aid in newspapers) the image of India as country must have changed(though it might be a very meagre initially). Also this move will be very helpful in long term as surely Pakistan would play a softhand in future against India(from terrorist activities perspective) which would mean that government would save even more than 5 million dollars which it currently spends on army budget. I know my post looks too optimistic but this is what I feel the reason why Indian Government has done it.

The basics of Indian Politics - how corruption starts from base

I was thinking from long time to post this but was not getting time for the same, finally I managed to spare some time to tell about the basic functionality model of Indian politics and why it is often referred as politics led by goons. I request to please post your views about the same in the comment section.

It is true that most of the Indian politician are goons who win election by distributing money among the poor people, and the politicians are most after the poor people who can be purchased by distributing a couple of whiskey bottles or by few thousand rupees, which comes down to few hundred rupees in case of Bihar.

I was wondering how can so much dirt get into system that too at every level. well I got answer in few days and here is what I concluded.

Most of the poor people or low income group people(bus drivers, Auto drivers, sweepers ) to list a few are the ones who are very fond of politics not because they like it but to earn money, A person who has no work, no job to earn money is type of hired by the local politician at not much wages but given a commitment that if he/she wins in smallest level election then there would be lots of money around and the person (having no money presently) says a yes and becomes a chela of that to be politician. Now the task is how to earn votes in coming general body election or any other election, Since they have not done anything good for the people but still want to win, they start corrupt practices like giving warnings to people to cast them or face the music(taking advantage of weak police system), In India Police can be termed as goons hired by politicians legally to take money from the literate(well settled individuals). but in case of poor people they dont give such warnings(because they will get nothing in case they even kill the person for not casting the vote to them) So they purchase their votes by paying a meagre amount while also maintaining some sort of ledger of the money spent on whole election campaign. Since they start from smaller area hence people to purchase is very less hence the budget is fixed too. Once they win the election by giving money, bribing police, they feel very happy and first take out the money out from government funds(which is indirectly the taxes collected from the well settled people).

They charge compound interest for their money and fill their stomachs and houses as this stolen money would now become input for purchasing votes for the next level of elections(which covers larger geographical area), The person who helped initially now becomes a legal goon which is used for killing a competitor and the police is used by same politician to show it as either a suicide or road accident(I have not heard of any third type of killing strategy used by the politicians in India for killing of their competitors).

Now when he follows the same strategy and wins the elections again then he becomes the god of the area, which gives him power to do all the illegal activities, drugs, call girls mafias, murders, licenses to builders etc. From all these activities the percentage of now minister's share reaches at end of the day or weekly or monthly(depends on how the politician wants that money) and this is all hard cash. Local police helps in watching that all the illegal activities are going on nicely and they are getting their share at time.

The things shown in movie Rajneeti are very true(however it depicted only the killing of competitors part, I discussed earlier). Now since the whole nexus created by the politician of that area is functioning smoothly he makes a lot of money.

The tragedy here for medium income group or middle class people is that their vote has no effect as the number of poor people surpasses them and would always be the same in future too. but the money which goes into politicians pocket is the one from their taxes :(

Hence no politician ever talks about providing jobs to the people as in that case their own job would end because they know the truth about their doings and no person would ever want that his/her source of income should stop.

So this was my try to depict the working of indian pilitics and indian politicians(in which the middle income group has no effect)

PLEASE GIVE YOUR COMMENTS ABOUT WHAT TO FEEL ABOUT THIS

Core investment norms released by RBI

Reserve Bank of India on Friday said core investment companies with assets over Rs 1 billion will be required to obtain certificate of registration from it while the ones below Rs 1 billion need not.

A core investment company means a non-banking finance company which holds not less than 90 per cent of its total assets in the form of investment in equity shares, preference shares, debt or loans in group companies, the bank said.

Indian Forex reserves at $ 287 billion

India's foreign exchange reserves rose to $287.356 billion as on August 6, from $284.183 billion in the previous week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Foreign exchange reserves include India's Reserve Tranche position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the RBI said.

14000 crores as subsidy to Oil Cos

The government will give Rs 14,000 crore in cash to Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum to make up for the losses incurred on selling fuel below cost in the first quarter of 2010-11 fiscal.

The Finance Ministry today sought parliamentary approval for additional spending of Rs 68,294.30 crore that included Rs 14,000 crore "for providing compensation to oil marketing companies towards estimated under-recoveries on account of sale of petroleum products."

Retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL lost about Rs 20,275 crore on selling petrol, diesel, domestic LPG and kerosene below cost in the first quarter of this fiscal. Of these, losses of upstream firms like Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), made up for one-third or Rs 6,690.68 crore.

Key rates decision after analysing Inflation problem root - RBI

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary stance will depend on whether it perceives inflation as stemming from excessive liquidity or due to supply constraints, the country's top civil servant said.

On Tuesday, Cabinet Secretary K.M. Chandrasekhar allayed concerns of persistently high prices, reiterating the government's forecast of headline inflation easing to 5-6 percent by the end of the year.

India's annual headline inflation stayed above 10 percent for the fifth straight month in June, cementing expectations the RBI will raise interest rates for a second time this month to contain price pressures.

A majority of economists expect the RBI to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points in its quarterly review on July 27 and tighten policy further in coming quarters, a new Reuters poll showed.

"A call will have to be taken by the Reserve Bank (RBI) on whether inflation is on account of high money supply or is it on account of certain sectoral reasons, some supply constraints," Chandrasekhar told a news conference.

Some analysts have pegged capacity constraints in the rapidly expanding economy as the main reason for a surge in non-food inflation, pointing out a slowdown in May industrial output, despite robust domestic consumer demand.

Further, expansion in the M3 money supply, the broadest measure of liquidity in the system, has just picked up after slowing down since the year began and lags credit expansion.

Exports to EU countries increases

According to latest report exports to EU union have increase YoY. So does it mean that EU is coming out of bad times...The answer might not be so easy currently, have to wait for another quarter for sure to analyse.

Details:

Exports from India to the 27-member EU increased by 18 percent to 10.7 billion euros in January-April 2010, compared to 9.1 billion euros in the corresponding period last year. and also Exports from the European Union (EU) to India shot up by 28 percent to 10.6 billion euros (about $13 billion) between January and April 2010, compared to 8.3 billion euros in the corresponding period last year,

Good Move - Rs 8000 crores for mid day meal scheme

This year the Centre has alloted rs 8000 crore for the mid day meal scheme , hence there would be more enrolment for schools for sure thus increasing the number of literates in country.

Flashing back to midday scheme: Mid-day meal scheme was first evolved by former Tamil Nadu chief minister K Kamaraj and now it has been taken as a role model for the entire country.

Pathetic - Gujarat Gov unable to collect Tax dues

The booming economy of Gujarat has a darker side too.. as their are many big companies which do not pay their taxes and Owe 4000 crores as taxes from 2006 onwards.

The biggest revenue churner for the state government — the commercial tax department that accounts for 60-70 per cent of the state government’s revenue — may have breathed down a small trader’s neck to recover dues. The department , however, find it difficult to explain why they have been unable to recover Rs 4,775 crore from 13 major units in the state since 2006. The amount includes Rs 1,264 crore in interest.

Indian Economy's GDP pegged at 5 perc for 2010-11

Indian Economy's fiscal deficit for year 2010-11 is predicted to be in line of 5 percent of GDP according to Nomura. Which means it is much less then the predicted.

The government is also looking at raising Rs 40,000 crore through disinvestment this fiscal. It has already raised over Rs 1.06 lakh crore from the sale of spectrum for 3G and Broadband Wireless Services (BWA) services.

The research firm also said that one-off expenses on pay arrears and fiscal stimulus are set to fade. Hence government would borrow 15000 crores less in this financial year.

I am waiting when India would see it's first budget with zero deficit, that day will be golden day for Indian Economy....cheers!!

Normal Monsoon brigtens hopes for decrease in prices :)

(posted under - Monsoon updates, Economy of India) -As the country is now completely witnessing normal monsoons all over, The monsoon is ahead of schedule by 9 days according to metrological department, The Inflation will surely come down in couple of months from now on..

The revival of monsoon rains, the main source of water for 60 per cent Indian farms, will lift soybean and groundnut crops in the world's top vegetable oils importer and help the cane crop in the Uttar Pradesh state, which produces half the cane in the world's top sugar consumer.

The weather office expects total June-September rainfall to be normal despite the June deficit.

Indian Economy booming - Direct tax collection up 15 percent

(posted under Direct tax collection, Indian economy updates) - collection of direct taxes during the first quarter of the current fiscal increased by over a full 15 per cent, driven mainly by higher realisation from the corporate sector.

The higher realisation of direct taxes, which mainly include corporate tax and income tax, went up to Rs 68,675 crore, as against Rs 59,465 crore during the corresponding period last fiscal.

According to the figures released by the Finance Ministry here today, corporate tax collection, which is a reflection on the performance of India Inc, soared 21.65 per cent to Rs 43,439 crore during the reporting period. The government expects to mop up Rs 4.3 lakh crore by way of direct taxes during the current fiscal, an increase of over 13 per cent over the year-ago period.

Is budget 2010 provisions on track??

It has been 4 months since Pranab Mukherjee presented the Union budget 2010 in Parliament. Now the big question is that Are budget provisions on track.

The list of announcements made during budget speech is as following ans I will soon update the present growth of these provisions in reality.

1. Pranab cuts surcharge for corporate, ups MAT
2. First challenge is to get to the high GDP growth path
3. Oil & gas: Budget 2010 low on reforms, high on tax
4. Actual net market borrowing for 2010/11 seen at Rs3.45 trillion
5.15% increase in plan expenditure in 2010/11
6. Defence allocation raised to 1.47 lakh cr
7. Customs duty on silver at Rs1500/kg
8. Pranab Mukherjee allots Rs 173 crore for infra development
9. Service tax remains unchanged at 10%
10. India received FDI worth $20.9 bn in April to Dec 2009 period
11. New Corporate Tax rate at 33.21%
12. FM says economy now is in far better position
13. Rs50/tonne cess on Indian coal
14. Cut in Personal Tax Rate Savings of Rs50,000-8lac
15. Excise duty on CFL halved
16. FM’s Budget makes tobacco cos cough
17. Waive excise duty on solar panels
18. Govt will implement direct tax code by April 1, 2011
19. Agricultural seeds exempted from service tax
20. RBI to release additional licenses to pvt sector banks and non-banking financial institutions
21. Raise excise duty on non-petro products to 10%
22. Implementation of GST and DTC by April 2011
23. Opposition walks out of the Budget session
24. Sets aside Rs 16500 cr for PSU banks to get minimum 8% tier 1 capital by March 2011
25. Restore 5% basic customs duty on crude petroleum
26. Partial roll back of excise duties of large cars
27. Explicit reduction in domestic public debt equity ratio: FM
28. Excise duty raised on all non-smoking tobacco
29. Centeral Excise Tax on petroleum products raised by Re1
30. Raises excise duty from 8% to 10%
31. R&D deduction increased
32. Surcharge for companies cut to 7.5% from 10%
33. MAT increased form 15% to 18%
34. 30% tax on income above 8 lac
35. 20% tax on salary between 5-8lac
36. Govt to set up apex level Financial Stability and Development Council
37. 10% tax for income between 1.6-5 lac
38. No income tax on salary up to of Rs1.6 lac
39. Fiscal deficit seen at 4.8% in FY12
40. FY11 fiscal deficit pegged at 5.5% of GDP
41. Increase in non-planned expenditure is only 6%
42. Planning Commission to plan development of Maoist affected areas
43. Rs 1,900 cr to authorities working to implement UID number
44. UID number to come into effect the coming year
45. Fuel prices to go up from tonight
46. 15% priority lending to minority sector to be maintained
47. Gradual phasing out of stimulus: FM
48. Plan outlay for welfare of women and children doubled
49. Smart card extended to NREGA scheme
50. Raises allocation for health ministry to Rs22,300 crore
51. Bharat Nirman plan for FY11 has outlay of Rs48,000cr
52. Indira Awaas Yojana allocation at Rs1,000 cr
53. More power to aam aadmi; FM cuts tax rates
54. Raises allocation for urban development by 75% to 5400cr
55. NREGA allocation at Rs40,100 cr
56. Social sector spending at Rs1.38 trillion for FY11
57. Stocks/sectors you should bet on post Budget
58. Increase allocation for school education from to 31,036 cr from 26,800 cr
59. Hike allotment to renewable energy by 61%
60. Doubled allocation for power sector
61. Hope to breach 10% mark in GDP in near future: FM
62. Road development allocation raised to 19,894
63. FM doubles allocation, solar power gets boost
64. Proposes to extend interest subvention for export for 1 yr
65. Will reduce fertilizer subsidies
66. Aims to implement GST and Direct Tax Code in April 2011

India's trade deficit to widen to 154 billion in 2011/12

India's trade deficit is forecast to widen in the 2010/11 fiscal year as its rebounding economy raises demand for manufacturing and oil imports, while the euro zone debt crisis hits exports, mainly in software.

A wider deficit would pressure the partially convertible rupee, which has lost more than 5 per cent from its 2010 peak of 44.18 to the US dollar.

India's trade deficit was $117.3 billion in 2009/10, down from $118.7 billion in 2008/09. But a Reuters survey in April forecast the gap would widen to $132.70 billion in 2010/11 and $154.50 billion in 2011/12.