Economy poised for a rebound

The worst is over and the economy looks set for a rebound. This may sound contra-intuitive after dire predictions of a long and deep

slowdown, but economists and investment bankers interviewed by TOI see a revival as early as September, or latest by December. All of them see growth riding on the back of domestic demand rather than overseas business but caution that some sectors such as IT may take a little longer.

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The pace of rebound being projected ranges from an optimistic 8% of GDP to a cautious 6-7% in the last quarter. For the full fiscal, there's consensus on 6.5-7% except a CII forecast that pegged it at 6-6.5%. But a word of caution here will not be out of place. These figures could still go off the mark as the signs may be deceptive. This is just like when the specialists failed to see through the boom to see the bust coming.

"Green shoots of growth are showing in some sectors and we can certainly see a sustainable upward movement by the September-October busy season. Summer is lean period as activities usually slow down before picking up in September... or more in October," Ficci secretary-general Amit Mitra said.

Suresh Tendulkar, chairman of PM's Economic Advisory Council, was more optimistic and said recovery had started. "There have been some pressure on the bottomline and profit growth may not be as high as expected. But the way revenues have grown, it shows revival has started," he said.

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All of them identified infrastructure as the engine, driving demand in steel, cement and other manufactured items. "Infrastructure will spur the drawdown on inventories. That's happened in cement and is starting to happen in steel," said the investment banker.

Mahajan sees agriculture in a support role. "It will prompt rural demand but since there's a rigidity in the sector, it is not like the farm sector will carry the economy as a whole. A good monsoon and a good crop will certainly help the economic revival but that will not be the sole driver. After all, you already have good rural demand."

Mitra said steel and cement signified some turnaround in producer side. "FMCG never suffered. Activities in small housing are coming back. All these can be sustained if interest rates come down... projects become viable, start getting off the ground and (with low interest) propel consumer side interest."

Indian Cos Mergers and acquisitions at 4 year low

(Indian Economy Updates) - Mergers and acquisitions involving Indian firms in 2009 so far have been the lowest in four years for comparable periods, touching just $7.4 billions, thanks to the global economic slowdown.

M&A volume of $7.4 billion represents a massive 51 per cent decline from the corresponding period a year ago, global deal tracking firm Dealogic said.

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Out of $7.4-billion M&A deals involving Indian firms, inbound deals amounted to $1.6 billion where foreign firms bought stake in Indian companies.

"Inbound cross-border M&A fell to $1.6 billion via 70 deals so far this year, down 77 per cent from last year. The US remained the biggest investor in Indian firms with $483 million via 21 deals," Dealogic added.

Outbound M&A activity fell drastically to just $334 million through 34 deals, a 96 per cent fall from the same period last year. The US was the most targeted nation as M&As worth $157 million were carried out through 10 deals, compared to $1.6 billion via 29 deals last year to date.

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The oil and gas sector was the most active segment this year. The space cornered as many as six deals worth $2.1 billion. Besides the largest M&A transaction -- Reliance Industries' open offer to acquire the remaining 25 per cent of Reliance Petroleum for $1.7 billion also happened in this section.

The all-share merger deal valued at about Rs 8,500 crore between the two Mukesh Ambani group firms RIL and RPL has become probably the 10th-biggest ever for the country and the first billion-dollar deal this year.

According to Dealogic, Citi emerged as the top adviser on Indian M&A with $3.2 billion via three deals. Kotak Mahindra Bank followed suit with $2.3 billion through two deals and Morgan Stanley is in the third place with $2 billion via two transactions.

The top two India targeted deals were Reliance Industries' 25 per cent stake acquisition in Reliance Petroleum for $1,688 million and Quippo Telecom Infrastructure's 49 per cent stake acquisition in Wireless II Infoservices for $1296 million.

indian Exports to US fell 11.5 perc since recession news came in

(Indian Exports) - India's exports to the US, the single largest market for local exporters, dropped 11.5% during October'08-February'09, as per a study by industry chamber FICCI. The study also revealed that India has lagged behind other competing countries such as China, South Korea and Brazil, that export to the US.

This has come about even as US-bound exports from Ireland, Indonesia and Vietnam have grown in the range of 3-12% during the same five month period. Although exports from China, Korea and Brazil have also dropped, India has fared the worst, as per FICCI. But India outperformed Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Russia and Singapore for the period.

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In the first two months of 2009, Indian exports to the US dropped 23%, much more than the fourth quarter of 2008, indicating a worsening situation. In the previous quarter (July-September 2008) exports actually grew 14%.

The sectors worst affected by the decline in exports to US include gems & jewellery, textiles & apparel, pharmaceuticals, auto & auto components, marine products and non-ferrous metals. In contrast, chemicals, machinery, iron & steel, instruments, leather, plastics, agro-items and processed food saw higher exports.

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India's exports of machinery & parts grew 19% to $1.2 billion against a 15.4% decline in US global imports of this category. Similarly chemicals export increased over 14% to $974 million even as US chemical imports from all countries put together declined 1.5% for the period. Exports of iron & steel from India matched the 14% rise in US global imports of the products.

The FICCI study observed that in two categories India has lost some share of US imports to competitor countries. In textiles & apparel, Bangladesh and Vietnam have expanded their exports 18% and 9% respectively when Indian exports fell 6.5%. Similarly, India's pharmaceuticals exports declined 37% at a time when such exports from China, Israel and South Korea moved up 27-41%.

US economy slid at 6.1% in first quarter

(29/4/2009 - US Economy Updates) - The US economy contracted at a 6.1 percent annual pace in the first quarter of 2009, the government said Wednesday, signaling little improvement in a deep recession.

The Commerce Department's first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) was a disappointment to forecasters expecting a 4.7 percent decline, and marked only a marginal improvement over the 6.3 percent drop in the fourth quarter of 2008.

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The decline marked the third consecutive quarter of contraction for the world's biggest economy, which had not occurred since 1974-1975.

The steep fall was the result of falling exports, declines in business and household investment and a weak housing market, offset in part by improved consumer spending.

Consumer spending rebounded in the quarter, growing 2.2 percent after falling 4.3 percent in the last quarter of 2008.

But even though consumer activity makes up the lion's share of activity, it was not enough to offset hefty declines in other segments of the economy.

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Investment in housing or residential structures fell 38 percent and spending on nonresidential business investment slumped 37.9 percent including a 33.8 percent drop in software and equipment.

Exports tumbled 30 percent and even government investment fell 4.0 percent.

posted under - US economy, economy of US, economic updates, US economic updates

Indian economy to recover from mid-2009 - Macquaire

(29-4-2009 Indian economy updates) - Indian economy will begin to recover from the middle of this year, thanks to the fiscal and monetary measures taken up by the government, but the outcome of the ongoing general election remains a legitimate concern, global research firm Macquarie has said.

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Macquarie said, "Our view remains that the largely domestically-driven Indian economy will begin to recover palpably from mid-year onwards."

The double-cylinder fiscal and monetary response has been aggressive and already paying dividend, the research firm said but added that "political uncertainty over the outcome for the ongoing general election remains a legitimate concern".

The other factors likely to contribute include that India is relatively less dependent on exports, its export profile is not heavily dependent on electronic or automotive shipments and the domestic fiscal and policy response has been aggressive and effective.

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Macquarie further said the Reserve Bank of India appears to be approaching the end of the policy rate-cutting cycle, but banks have more room to cut their lending rates more aggressively, which in turn should boost economic activity.

"Indeed, the broader setting is evolving nicely to position the economy for a better second-half of FY'10. Currently, we forecast a full-year GDP growth of 5.5 per cent for FY'10 following an estimated 6.5 per cent in the last fiscal year," Macquarie said.

posted under - economy of india, indian economy updates, economic crises, india economy, indian economy blog

RBI extends concessional credit to exporters till Oct 31

(28/4/2009 - RBI news) - Providing relief to exporters hit by shrinking global demand, the Reserve Bank on Tuesday extended the concessional interest rate scheme by six months till October this year.

The ceiling of interest rate on pre-shipment rupee export credit up to 270 days and post-shipment credit up to 180 days at BPLR minus 2.5 per cent was to expire on April 30, 2009.

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"It has been decided to extend the validity ... up to October 31, 2009," the RBI said in a circular to the scheduled commercial banks.

Since these are ceiling rates, banks would not be able to charge exporters interest rates above the benchmark prime lending rate (BPLR) minus 2.5 per cent.

The Federation of Indian Export Organisations has been demanding that exporters should be given credit at 7 per cent without linking with the prime lending rate.

The exporters has been hit by recession in major markets of the US, Europe and the Middle East, which together accounts to over 70 per cent of India's overseas sales.

posted under - RBI updates, reserve bank of india, RBI news, exporters credit

Direct tax collection Rs 3.37 lakh crore

(27/4/2009 - Indian Direct tax updates) - The direct tax collection during the last fiscal year 2008-09 was to the tune of Rs 3.37 lakh crore against Rs 3.12 lakh crore in financial year of 2007-08, a top revenue official said on Monday.

"The tax collection was, however, short of budgetary estimates of Rs.3.45 lakh crore. Similarly, the indirect tax collection was Rs 2.65 lakh crore as against Rs 2.81 lakh crore in previous year, Secretary, Department of Revenue, New Delhi, P V Bhide told reporters.

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Bhide, who was here to attend the passing out of 61st batch of Indian Revenue Service (IRS) at the National Academy of Direct Taxes (NADT), said the cut in duty taxes reduced the indirect tax collection.

Speaking at the valedictory function of induction course of 61st batch, Bhide called upon the young officers to be honest and strive for tax administration while their primary responsiblity is tax collection.

Treat the income tax assessee as a client and not a criminal, he advised. The new tax code was being readied and would be brought in soon, he said.

posted under - Direct tax, direct taxes updates, pay direct tax, indian economy updates, direct taxes 2008-09, tax updates 2008-09

Japanese economy to shrink 3.3 per in 2009 - Japan Govt

(Japanese economy updates) - Japan's economy is likely to shrink 3.3 percent this fiscal year, its worst contraction since World War II, the Cabinet announced Monday as it submitted a massive supplementary budget to finance a new stimulus package.

Exports and production are falling drastically, while employment conditions are rapidly worsening. Financing for businesses is also severe, and it is correct to say that Japan is in the middle of a financial crisis, Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said in an address to the parliament.

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Yosano asked lawmakers to quickly pass the extra budget, which calls for a record 15 trillion yen ($155 billion) in government spending to finance a new stimulus package. The package is equivalent to about 3 percent of Japan's gross domestic product.

His remarks came after the Cabinet downgraded its forecast for Japan's GDP to a contraction of 3.3 percent for the current fiscal year through March 2010. It had previously predicted GDP would be flat for the period.

It also said the world's second-largest economy is likely to have shrunk 3.1 percent in the fiscal year that ended last month, worse than the previous estimate of a 0.8 percent contraction.

With the latest estimates, Tokyo now expects the two-year period to be the worst for the economy in the country's postwar history. The largest previous GDP contraction was 1.5 percent in 1998.

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In a statement released early Monday, the Cabinet said the stagnant global economy was hurting Japan's mainstay exports. But it said its economic measures would prevent Japan from getting caught in a downward spiral.

The Finance Ministry last week said Japan recorded its first annual trade deficit in 28 years in the just-ended fiscal year.

Japan has heavily relied on foreign sales of its cars and gadgets to drive economic growth, and is reeling from the collapse in global demand sparked last year by the U.S. financial crisis. Its economy shrank an alarming annual 12.1 percent in the October-December quarter, marking the steepest contraction since the oil shock of 1974.

The administration says the newest stimulus package will help protect the economy from slipping further while laying the foundation for future growth. It also provides support for the unemployed and small businesses.

The spending will also add to Japan's expanding public debt. Since Prime Minister Taro Aso took office in September, lawmakers have already approved two stimulus packages worth 12 trillion yen in fiscal spending.

posted under - Japan economy, economy of japan, japanese economy updates, japan recession, recession in japan, japanese economy
source - www.economictimes.com

Indian Inc's overseas investment slips 11 percent - RBI

(23/4 Indian Economy updates -the slowdown effect) - Facing the pangs of slowdown, India Inc appears to have restrained from overseas mergers and acquisitions as the country's foreign investment slipped by over 11 per cent during April-December 2008, says Reserve Bank.

"During the first nine months of 2008-09, 2,828 proposals amounting to $16,352 million were cleared for investments abroad in JVs (joint ventures) and WOSs (wholly owned subsidiaries), as against 1,595 proposals amounting to $18,437 million during the corresponding period of the previous year," the central bank said in its April Bulletin.

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Even though the number of proposals recorded an increase of 77.3 per cent, amount invested by India Inc on overseas ventures dipped by over 11 per cent during the period.

There were a total of 2,828 proposals during the first nine months of 2008-09 against 1,595 proposals in the corresponding period previous year.

"During the quarter, October-December 2008, proposals amounting to $7,409 million were cleared for investments abroad in JVs and WOSs, as against $7,882 million during October-December 2007, the RBI said.

posted under - RBI updates, economic updates, economy of india, indian economy slowdown, slowing economy, asian economies, indian rupee, economy of india

Inflation rises to 0.26 percent - April 11

Indian inflation Updates April 2009 - Annual Inflation consisting Wholesale price index rose 0.26 per cent in the 12 months to April 11, above the previous week's annual rise of 0.18 per cent.

It was above a median forecast of 0.09 per cent in a poll of analysts. The annual inflation rate was 7.95 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

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The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is released weekly.

Hmm so despite slowdown everywhere indian economy is showing growth signs as growth in inflation percent nearly shows that consumer spending has not been hit amid global economic crises , One reason for growth of indian economy is (according to me) is the black economy which runs in parallel in india but is not shown in the audit books of the firms, so atleast some advantage of black money in these crucial crises times.....

wait for the next post dedicated to "parallel black economy of india"

posted under - inflation 2009, indian inflation, inflation in april, april inflation updates, economy of india, indian economy updates

Indian Forex reserves at USD 252 billion

(20/4/2009 Indian Economy updates) - India's foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 252 billion as of end-March, declining by USD 57.7 billion over the previous year, the Reserve Bank said on Monday.

The RBI said in its Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments in 2008-09 said, the overall approach to the management of India's foreign exchange reserves in recent years reflects the changing composition of the balance of payments and the 'liquidity risks' associated with different types of flows and other requirements.

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"Taking these factors into account, India's foreign exchange reserves continued to be at a level consistent with the rate of growth, the size of the external sector in the economy and the size of risk-adjusted capital flows," RBI said.

posted under - economy of india, indian economy updates, indian forex reserves, RBI updates, indian economy blog, economy of india updates, forex updates, india forex reserves

Economic growth drivers moderating - RBI

Major drivers of growth in India are witnessing moderation and various surveys of economic activity point towards less-than-optimistic
sentiment for the economy in coming months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday.

The survey of professional forecasters conducted by the Reserve Bank of India cut gross domestic product estimates for the 2009/10 fiscal year to 5.7 percent from 6.0 percent, it said in a review of the economy.

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The central bank said the slew of measures taken by it and the government would help tame the moderation in growth and revive consumption and investment demand.

Inflation lowers but food items prices skyrocket

Annual inflation fell to a three- decade low of 0.26 per cent, although prices of essential food items rose by up to 17 per cent, shows data released just days ahead of the country going to general elections.

Wholesale prices-based inflation declined by 0.05 percentage points for the week ended March 28 from 0.31 per cent in the previous week.

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Even as the point-to-point inflation is near zero level, the average rate of price rise works out to be 8.4 per cent for the fiscal 2008-09 against 4.7 per cent in 2007-08.

Edible items like salt, sugar, milk, cereals, pulses, manufactured food products, spices and fruits were selling at higher rates for the week under review than a year ago.

In the backdrop of fall in sugarcane production, sugar prices soared by 17 per cent leaving a bitter taste. Inflation has become a key election issue, with political parties promising cheap rations for the poor.

Salt prices too went up by 10.68 per cent, milk by 6.22 per cent, cereals by 9.61 per cent, pulses 8.46 per cent and fruits by 8.02 per cent. However, drop in prices of minerals, metals, fuel, power and lubricants helped pull down the over all inflation to a three decade low.

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With the inflation dropping to such a low, analysts feel that the Reserve Bank of India may signal further cut in interest rates. RBI Governor D Subbarao reviewed the interest rate scenario with the heads of commercial banks in Mumbai yesterday.

"Inflation is low due to crisis in demand and crisis of confidence. It is low (also) due to base effect," said economic research body, RIS' Director-General Nagesh Kumar.

The Finance Ministry described the year-on-year price rise as "stable". It said the inflation of primary articles declined for the week ended March 28, 2009 from the previous week.

However, there was 3.46 per cent point-to-point annualised price rise for these articles. Further disaggregation of food articles shows that several items were selling at higher prices.

posted under - Inflation, Indian inflation updates, April inflation updates, Inflation at all time low, indian economy updates, economy of india, india and inflation
source - www.economictimes.com

Oil export earnings rise 17 per in 2009

April 8/09 - Despite facing a downturn in demand and consequently in prices since October 2008, India’s earning from oilmeal exports increased 17% to Rs 8,341 crore in 2008-09 even on a lower export volume. A firm trend in global markets during the first half of the FY09 has helped India beat the impact of recession on oilmeal exports.

Riding on substantial gains in price realisation in the first half of 2008-09, oilmeal continues to remain the highest export earner in the agri-commodity segment. During the year, it fetched about Rs 8,341 crore on an export volume of 5,421,607 tonne compared to Rs 7,109 crore against a volume export of 5,442,132 tonne in 2007-08.

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According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), oilmeal exports in the first two quarters of 2008-09 jumped due to excellent demand and higher realisation of FOB prices. However, it stagnated in the third quarter. Exports declined heavily in the fourth quarter faced with a decline in meat and poultry production in its prime markets in South-east Asia, which happened due to dip in consumer demand for livestock products in the recession-hit countries.

posted under - Oilmeal earnings, oil exports, indian economy updates, economy of india, indian oil exports news, indian economy news, oilmeal in india, oilmeal exports

Economy Updates - Exports down 18% to $12 bn in March 2009

April 7/09(India Economy Updates) - The country seems all set to miss the pared down export target for 2008-09 with exports recording a fall in March 2009, for the sixth time in a row. Quick estimates made by the commerce department reveal that exports fell by 18% in March 2009 to $12 billion.

The aggregate export figure for the entire fiscal is, therefore, at $168.59 billion, which is more than a billion dollar short of the lower range of the revised target of $170-175 billion set by the government. The unofficial quick estimates, however, are sometimes quite different from the revised estimates officially issued at the end of the month.

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While desegregated figures are not available, a government official said that sectors such as textiles, handicrafts, carpets, leather, gems & jewellery and marine products continued to do badly. While demand for some of these products, especially textiles, has started picking up slightly in the EU market, demand from the US continues to be sluggish, the official added.

India exported goods worth $162 billion in 2008-09 registering a healthy growth over the previous fiscal. The 2008-09 fiscal began on a robust note with exports growing by more than 30% in the first six months. While the effects of the global demand slowdown started appearing in September with export growth slowing down to 10% in September 2008, the downslide started in October 2008 with exports entering the negative territory with a fall of 12.8% over October 2007.

Exports have not managed to get out of the negative zone ever since. Commerce and industry minister Kamal Nath, who had initially fixed the export target for 2008-2009 at $200 billion, brought it down to $170 billion-$175 billion in the last quarter of the fiscal year.

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With demand in key markets including the US, the EU and Japan slowing down, exports in most countries have been hit.

posted under - Exports , indian export news, Indian exports updates, economy of india, indian economy updates, indian economic news, economic news of india