Economic growth drivers moderating - RBI

Major drivers of growth in India are witnessing moderation and various surveys of economic activity point towards less-than-optimistic
sentiment for the economy in coming months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday.

The survey of professional forecasters conducted by the Reserve Bank of India cut gross domestic product estimates for the 2009/10 fiscal year to 5.7 percent from 6.0 percent, it said in a review of the economy.

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The central bank said the slew of measures taken by it and the government would help tame the moderation in growth and revive consumption and investment demand.

Inflation lowers but food items prices skyrocket

Annual inflation fell to a three- decade low of 0.26 per cent, although prices of essential food items rose by up to 17 per cent, shows data released just days ahead of the country going to general elections.

Wholesale prices-based inflation declined by 0.05 percentage points for the week ended March 28 from 0.31 per cent in the previous week.

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Even as the point-to-point inflation is near zero level, the average rate of price rise works out to be 8.4 per cent for the fiscal 2008-09 against 4.7 per cent in 2007-08.

Edible items like salt, sugar, milk, cereals, pulses, manufactured food products, spices and fruits were selling at higher rates for the week under review than a year ago.

In the backdrop of fall in sugarcane production, sugar prices soared by 17 per cent leaving a bitter taste. Inflation has become a key election issue, with political parties promising cheap rations for the poor.

Salt prices too went up by 10.68 per cent, milk by 6.22 per cent, cereals by 9.61 per cent, pulses 8.46 per cent and fruits by 8.02 per cent. However, drop in prices of minerals, metals, fuel, power and lubricants helped pull down the over all inflation to a three decade low.

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With the inflation dropping to such a low, analysts feel that the Reserve Bank of India may signal further cut in interest rates. RBI Governor D Subbarao reviewed the interest rate scenario with the heads of commercial banks in Mumbai yesterday.

"Inflation is low due to crisis in demand and crisis of confidence. It is low (also) due to base effect," said economic research body, RIS' Director-General Nagesh Kumar.

The Finance Ministry described the year-on-year price rise as "stable". It said the inflation of primary articles declined for the week ended March 28, 2009 from the previous week.

However, there was 3.46 per cent point-to-point annualised price rise for these articles. Further disaggregation of food articles shows that several items were selling at higher prices.

posted under - Inflation, Indian inflation updates, April inflation updates, Inflation at all time low, indian economy updates, economy of india, india and inflation
source - www.economictimes.com

Oil export earnings rise 17 per in 2009

April 8/09 - Despite facing a downturn in demand and consequently in prices since October 2008, India’s earning from oilmeal exports increased 17% to Rs 8,341 crore in 2008-09 even on a lower export volume. A firm trend in global markets during the first half of the FY09 has helped India beat the impact of recession on oilmeal exports.

Riding on substantial gains in price realisation in the first half of 2008-09, oilmeal continues to remain the highest export earner in the agri-commodity segment. During the year, it fetched about Rs 8,341 crore on an export volume of 5,421,607 tonne compared to Rs 7,109 crore against a volume export of 5,442,132 tonne in 2007-08.

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According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), oilmeal exports in the first two quarters of 2008-09 jumped due to excellent demand and higher realisation of FOB prices. However, it stagnated in the third quarter. Exports declined heavily in the fourth quarter faced with a decline in meat and poultry production in its prime markets in South-east Asia, which happened due to dip in consumer demand for livestock products in the recession-hit countries.

posted under - Oilmeal earnings, oil exports, indian economy updates, economy of india, indian oil exports news, indian economy news, oilmeal in india, oilmeal exports

Economy Updates - Exports down 18% to $12 bn in March 2009

April 7/09(India Economy Updates) - The country seems all set to miss the pared down export target for 2008-09 with exports recording a fall in March 2009, for the sixth time in a row. Quick estimates made by the commerce department reveal that exports fell by 18% in March 2009 to $12 billion.

The aggregate export figure for the entire fiscal is, therefore, at $168.59 billion, which is more than a billion dollar short of the lower range of the revised target of $170-175 billion set by the government. The unofficial quick estimates, however, are sometimes quite different from the revised estimates officially issued at the end of the month.

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While desegregated figures are not available, a government official said that sectors such as textiles, handicrafts, carpets, leather, gems & jewellery and marine products continued to do badly. While demand for some of these products, especially textiles, has started picking up slightly in the EU market, demand from the US continues to be sluggish, the official added.

India exported goods worth $162 billion in 2008-09 registering a healthy growth over the previous fiscal. The 2008-09 fiscal began on a robust note with exports growing by more than 30% in the first six months. While the effects of the global demand slowdown started appearing in September with export growth slowing down to 10% in September 2008, the downslide started in October 2008 with exports entering the negative territory with a fall of 12.8% over October 2007.

Exports have not managed to get out of the negative zone ever since. Commerce and industry minister Kamal Nath, who had initially fixed the export target for 2008-2009 at $200 billion, brought it down to $170 billion-$175 billion in the last quarter of the fiscal year.

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With demand in key markets including the US, the EU and Japan slowing down, exports in most countries have been hit.

posted under - Exports , indian export news, Indian exports updates, economy of india, indian economy updates, indian economic news, economic news of india

India ranks second in industrial production among developing countries

India ranks among the top five developing countries in production of six major industrial items, including textiles, motor vehicles, chemicals and basic metals, according to a UN agency UNIDO.

In four out of the six industrial products - textiles, chemicals and chemical products, basic metals and electrical machinery and apparatus - India figures at number two only behind China.

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India's annual growth rate of manufacturing value added (MVA) has risen from 6.9 per cent in the period 2000-2005 to 12.3 per cent between 2005 and 2007, according to the year book of the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO).

It found that the share of MVA in India's gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to 14.8 per cent in 2006 from 13.8 per cent in 2001.

UNIDO found that the developing countries now produced almost 30 per cent of the world MVA compared to 16 per cent in 1990.

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"The increasing share of developing world vis-a-vis industrialised countries is also explained by the shift of location of manufacturing, especially assembling of final products from industrialised countries to developing countries," the UNIDO said.

posted under - industrial production, indian economy, economy of india, indian industrial output, output updates, indian economy updates, economy of india

FDI to remain robust - Goldman Sachs

The global economic slowdown will not affect the foreign direct investment (FDI) flow to India as the domestic demand remains "resilient", investment banker Goldman sachs said on Monday.

"FDI is showing positive signals," Tushar Poddar, an economist with Goldman Sachs said, adding: "We expect FDI inflows to remain significant in 2009-10, given India's relatively resilient domestic demand momentum."

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According to the bank, the FDI flow to India during September-January - the months when the credit crisis was at its peak - amounted to $9.2 billion, higher than $7.9 billion in the corresponding period last year.

Pranjul Bhandari, another economist at Goldman, said: "India's balance of payments (BOP) may have had its worst quarter in October-December 2009, when it showed a deficit of $18 billion."

"NRI deposits showed an uptick last fiscal, but we expect it to remain flat in 2009-10. We expect NRI deposits coming due in the next year ($32 billion) to get rolled over to a large extent, but do not expect large fresh inflows," he added.

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External commercial borrowings (ECBs) are expected to moderate in in the current fiscal. Although ECBs have slowed to $9.1 billion during September-February from $11.8 billion in the previous six months.

"In 2009-10, we expect ECBs to remain positive due to higher growth and yields in India, notwithstanding the $7 billion of outstanding commercial loans coming due," Bhandari said.

Private remittances from Indians working abroad slowed to $4.3 billion in the October-December quarter from $7.9 billion in the July-September quarter.

"We expect this to remain weak, but do not expect much further weakness from current levels," she said.

Bhandari added that the merchandise trade deficit had fallen to $5 billion in February from a peak of $14 billion in August.

Posted under - FDI in india, indian economy updates, economy of india, recession and indian economy, Indian FDI, foreign direct investment in india, India FDI, FDI updates
source - www.economictimes.com

G20 Nations agree to trilion dollar financial plan for lifting global economy

G20 summit updates April 2009- World leaders agreed a trillion-dollar deal on Thursday to combat the deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression.

At a G20 summit, they also signed off on plans to commission blacklists of tax havens and tighten financial rules to bring hedge funds and credit rating agencies under closer supervision.

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"This is the day that the world came together, to fight back against the global recession. Not with words but a plan for global recovery and for reform and with a clear timetable," British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the summit host, said.

World markets reacted positively. The index of top European shares was up 5 percent after Japan's Nikkei gained 4.4 percent. On Wall Street, the Nasdaq was up 4 percent and the Dow Jones 3.6 percent.

Brown said that while there were "no quick fixes," the decisions meant that "we can shorten the recession and we can save jobs."

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French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the results were beyond what could have been imagined.

Addressing a key demand from France and Germany, Brown said the leaders agreed "there will be an end to tax havens that do not transfer information on request. The banking secrecy of the past must come to an end."

He said leaders agreed to commit new resources of 1 trillion dollars that are available to the world economy through the International Monetary Fund and other institutions.

This included 250 billion dollars of IMF reserve units called Special Drawing Rights. "This is available to all IMF members," Brown said. In addition, the IMF would see its own resources tripled, with up to $500 billion of new funds.

The G20 also agreed a trade finance package worth $250 billion over two years to support global trade flows.

posted under - G20 updates, G20 2009, G20 summit updates, economic recession updates, economic crises updates, world economies updates, G20 meeting

India's Apr-Feb 2008-09 exports at $156 bn

India's exports in the April to February period reached $156 billion and are expected to touch $170-175 billion in fiscal 2009/10, Commerce Secretary G.K. Pillai said on Friday.

"We will be lucky if we touch the $170 billion target (this fiscal year)," Pillai said referring to the slowdown in exports due to the global economic crisis.

Govt released the trade data for february yesterday.

posted under - exports of india, indian exports, export data from india, Indian economy updates, economy of india, effect of recession, indian exports

India Economy Updates - Govt introduces LLP business structure

India today introduced a new kind of business structure, Limited Liability Partnership (LLP), a form of entity where the partners' liability is limited to the extent of their stake which will specially benefit the services sector.

The LLP Act, was passed by the Parliament and given assent by the President Pratibha Patil, was notified today after being approved by the Election Commission to do so, sources in the Ministry of Corporate Affairs told PTI.

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Rules under the Act were also notified today. The Act will specially benefit the service sector by providing a platform to professionals like chartered accountants and company secretaries to come together to form an LLP and provide a single-window shop to all people wanting to avail professional services.

The LLP is a hybrid of partnership firms and companies. It is a separate legal entity and the partners have the advantage of being liable to the extent of their shareholding in the entity. The software, a part of the government's e-governance programme MCA 21, for incorporating and formation of the company has been prepared and the new LLPs will register online, sources added.

posted under - LLP act, LLP, indian LLP act , LLP act 2009, Limited Liability Partenership, LLP in india, Indian Economy updates, economy of india

ग्रोथ ओवर ८ परसेंट सुस्तैनाब्ले - RBI

The Reserve Bank of India expects the economy's growth rate to bounce back above 8 per cent once the current global economic and financial turmoil passes, Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan said today.

"Our overall assessment is still an 8 per cent-plus growth is sustainable in the medium term. We can expect to come back to 8 per cent-plus growth once this interregnum is over," Mohan told a news conference.

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The government expects the economy to grow about 7 per cent in the fiscal year that ends on March 31, well below rates of 9 per cent or more in the previous three fiscal years.

Mohan said India would be cautious in moving towards fuller capital account convertibility for the rupee currency.

"We have also looked at the fuller capital account convertibility and concluded its desirable, but we need to move with caution," he concluded.

posted under - RBI updates, Indian Economy updates, economy oeconomy, recession and indian economy, economy of india, india economy

Economic Crises leads to delay in Financial Reforms - Report

Pressure to support India's economy and drive growth during the global economic and financial crisis could impede efforts to put the country's fiscal house in order, a report by the government and central bank said on Monday.

"Given the current pressures to maintain growth at a reasonably high level it would not be possible to resume the fiscal correction path after the current financial turmoil," the report on the country's financial sector said.

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The report said that once the current turmoil had passed, fiscal discipline needed to be reasserted to support growth.

"For the growth momentum to be sustained, it is necessary to return to the path of fiscal prudence at both the central and state governments," the report said. The federal government's finances have suffered in the 2008/09 fiscal year that ends on March 31, after making solid gains over the past few years, as a slowing economy has hit revenues and increased spending.

The government expects the deficit to widen to 6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008/09, more than double its initial estimate. Analysts say the country's combined deficit, including state deficits and off-budget items such as fuel subsidy costs, is around 10 per cent.

The six-volume report is a comprehensive review of the country's financial system. The committee that prepared it was formed by the government and central bank in 2006, and was headed by Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan.

posted under - Indian economy updates, Crises, Economy of india, Indian Economy, Economic reforms, Indian economy blog, india finance updates
source -www.economictimes.com

MS Ahluwalia predicts economy growth at 6.5%

The Planning Commission on Tuesday said the economy will grow by 6.5 per cent during the current fiscal, much below the 7.1 per cent projected by the government last month.

"Growth this year will be around 6.5 per cent and the name of the game next year will be to repeat that performance," Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said here.

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Pointing out that additional stimulus, over and above what was announced in the Interim Budget, would be required to push growth, he said, "it will be a major achievement (to achieve growth of 6.5 per cent in 2009-10)".

Ruling out the possibility of sustained inflation in the backdrop of steps being taken by the Reserve Bank and the government, Ahluwalia said, "Low inflation gives us a lot of room in (the) next six months to use all available instruments to ensure growth picks up."

posted under - indian economy updates, economy of india, MS Ahluwalia , economic crises updates, indian economy, economics of india

World Trade Organization predicts 9% drop in global trade

Economic contraction in most of the industrial world and steep export declines already posted in the early months of this year by most major economies, particularly those in Asia, makes for an unusually bleak 2009 trade assessment the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said in a statement.

The contraction in the developed countries will be severe with exports falling by 10 per cent this year, WTO said, adding that in developing countries, which are far more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some 2- 3 per cent in 2009, it said.

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"The collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades will drive exports down by roughly 9 per cent in volume terms in 2009," it said. This is the first decline in total world production since the 1930s, it said.

"As demand falls sharply, overall, trade will fall even further. The depleted pool of funds available for trade finance has contributed to the significant decline in trade flows, in particular in developing countries," WTO Director General Pascal Lamy said.

...well according to me it will be more then 9% for sure.

posted under - WTO updates, global economy updates, World trade organization, world economy, WTO news

Indian Govt issues INR 10,000 crores worth Oil Bonds

March 23/09 - The Special Bonds are being issued at par to Indian Oil Corporation (Rs 5812 crore), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (Rs 2144 crore) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (Rs 2038 crore) on March 23, 2009, Monday.

Investment in these special bonds by the banks and insurance companies willnot be considered as eligible as an investment in government securities for their statutory requirements.But such investment by the insurance companies will be eligible to be reckoned as investment under "other Approved Securities" category as defined under Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Investment) Regulations, 2000.

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The investment by the Provident Funds, Gratuity Funds, Superannuation Funds, etc. in these special bonds will be treated as an eligible investment under the administrative order of the Ministry of Finance. The Special Bonds will be transferable and eligible for repo transactions.

posted under - Indian Economy updates, oil sector updates, oil bonds, indian economy updates, economy of india, recession updates, indian oil PSU's Indian oil, hindustan petroleum updates

World Bank President predicts 2009 as "VERY DANGEROUS"

(World Economy Updates) - World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned on Saturday of the consequences of an expected steep decline in economic growth across the world this year.

"I think 2009 is going to be a very dangerous year," Zoellick told a conference in Brussels, citing World Bank forecasts of a spike in infant mortality associated with the economic crisis, and a fall-off in world trade.

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Zoellick proposed that the Group of 20 major and emerging economies -- whose leaders are due to meet in London next month -- establish a review process to see whether further stimulus measures would be needed to kickstart recovery.

posted under - world economy updates, recession news, economic crises updates, economy of world, 2009 predictions, economic crises of 2009