ग्रोथ ओवर ८ परसेंट सुस्तैनाब्ले - RBI

The Reserve Bank of India expects the economy's growth rate to bounce back above 8 per cent once the current global economic and financial turmoil passes, Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan said today.

"Our overall assessment is still an 8 per cent-plus growth is sustainable in the medium term. We can expect to come back to 8 per cent-plus growth once this interregnum is over," Mohan told a news conference.

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The government expects the economy to grow about 7 per cent in the fiscal year that ends on March 31, well below rates of 9 per cent or more in the previous three fiscal years.

Mohan said India would be cautious in moving towards fuller capital account convertibility for the rupee currency.

"We have also looked at the fuller capital account convertibility and concluded its desirable, but we need to move with caution," he concluded.

posted under - RBI updates, Indian Economy updates, economy oeconomy, recession and indian economy, economy of india, india economy

Economic Crises leads to delay in Financial Reforms - Report

Pressure to support India's economy and drive growth during the global economic and financial crisis could impede efforts to put the country's fiscal house in order, a report by the government and central bank said on Monday.

"Given the current pressures to maintain growth at a reasonably high level it would not be possible to resume the fiscal correction path after the current financial turmoil," the report on the country's financial sector said.

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The report said that once the current turmoil had passed, fiscal discipline needed to be reasserted to support growth.

"For the growth momentum to be sustained, it is necessary to return to the path of fiscal prudence at both the central and state governments," the report said. The federal government's finances have suffered in the 2008/09 fiscal year that ends on March 31, after making solid gains over the past few years, as a slowing economy has hit revenues and increased spending.

The government expects the deficit to widen to 6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008/09, more than double its initial estimate. Analysts say the country's combined deficit, including state deficits and off-budget items such as fuel subsidy costs, is around 10 per cent.

The six-volume report is a comprehensive review of the country's financial system. The committee that prepared it was formed by the government and central bank in 2006, and was headed by Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan.

posted under - Indian economy updates, Crises, Economy of india, Indian Economy, Economic reforms, Indian economy blog, india finance updates
source -www.economictimes.com

MS Ahluwalia predicts economy growth at 6.5%

The Planning Commission on Tuesday said the economy will grow by 6.5 per cent during the current fiscal, much below the 7.1 per cent projected by the government last month.

"Growth this year will be around 6.5 per cent and the name of the game next year will be to repeat that performance," Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said here.

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Pointing out that additional stimulus, over and above what was announced in the Interim Budget, would be required to push growth, he said, "it will be a major achievement (to achieve growth of 6.5 per cent in 2009-10)".

Ruling out the possibility of sustained inflation in the backdrop of steps being taken by the Reserve Bank and the government, Ahluwalia said, "Low inflation gives us a lot of room in (the) next six months to use all available instruments to ensure growth picks up."

posted under - indian economy updates, economy of india, MS Ahluwalia , economic crises updates, indian economy, economics of india

World Trade Organization predicts 9% drop in global trade

Economic contraction in most of the industrial world and steep export declines already posted in the early months of this year by most major economies, particularly those in Asia, makes for an unusually bleak 2009 trade assessment the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said in a statement.

The contraction in the developed countries will be severe with exports falling by 10 per cent this year, WTO said, adding that in developing countries, which are far more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some 2- 3 per cent in 2009, it said.

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"The collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades will drive exports down by roughly 9 per cent in volume terms in 2009," it said. This is the first decline in total world production since the 1930s, it said.

"As demand falls sharply, overall, trade will fall even further. The depleted pool of funds available for trade finance has contributed to the significant decline in trade flows, in particular in developing countries," WTO Director General Pascal Lamy said.

...well according to me it will be more then 9% for sure.

posted under - WTO updates, global economy updates, World trade organization, world economy, WTO news

Indian Govt issues INR 10,000 crores worth Oil Bonds

March 23/09 - The Special Bonds are being issued at par to Indian Oil Corporation (Rs 5812 crore), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (Rs 2144 crore) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (Rs 2038 crore) on March 23, 2009, Monday.

Investment in these special bonds by the banks and insurance companies willnot be considered as eligible as an investment in government securities for their statutory requirements.But such investment by the insurance companies will be eligible to be reckoned as investment under "other Approved Securities" category as defined under Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Investment) Regulations, 2000.

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The investment by the Provident Funds, Gratuity Funds, Superannuation Funds, etc. in these special bonds will be treated as an eligible investment under the administrative order of the Ministry of Finance. The Special Bonds will be transferable and eligible for repo transactions.

posted under - Indian Economy updates, oil sector updates, oil bonds, indian economy updates, economy of india, recession updates, indian oil PSU's Indian oil, hindustan petroleum updates

World Bank President predicts 2009 as "VERY DANGEROUS"

(World Economy Updates) - World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned on Saturday of the consequences of an expected steep decline in economic growth across the world this year.

"I think 2009 is going to be a very dangerous year," Zoellick told a conference in Brussels, citing World Bank forecasts of a spike in infant mortality associated with the economic crisis, and a fall-off in world trade.

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Zoellick proposed that the Group of 20 major and emerging economies -- whose leaders are due to meet in London next month -- establish a review process to see whether further stimulus measures would be needed to kickstart recovery.

posted under - world economy updates, recession news, economic crises updates, economy of world, 2009 predictions, economic crises of 2009

Wholesale Inflation at all time low of 0.44 percent

Inflation for the week ended March 7 fell to an all time low of 0.44%. The sharp fall in inflation was due to several factors including easing prices of food articles and fuel items along with a high base effect. Annual inflation as measured by Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was at 2.42% in the week before and at 7.78% in the corresponding week last year.

The inflation for food articles eased considerably to 7.34%. It had touched a 10-year high of 11.64% in the beginning of the year. Prices of food articles for the week ended March 7 touched the lowest since the beginning of the year.

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The sharp fall in annual inflation as measured by fuel index was due to fall in prices of jet fuel and electricity for agriculture each of which fell by 8%. The fuel prices are currently witnessing negative inflation to the range of 6% and are expected to dip further into negative territory.

The higher base effect along with low demand in the economy is expected to keep inflation in negative territory for 5 to 6 months." Inflation will turn negative starting from April and will remain so until the end of 2009," said Tushar Poddar, an economist with Goldman Sachs Inc. in Mumbai. "We expect the Reserve Bank to ease liquidity" to support growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said this week India should rely more on monetary policy to support the economy as high public debt makes fiscal efforts difficult.

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Retail inflation as measured by the consumer price index for industrial workers has moved up to 10.45% in January, the highest since December 1998. The consumer-price index for farm workers increased 11.62% in January from a year earlier, following an 11.14% in December. The central bank said this month consumer prices will decline after a lag, without specifying a time frame.

The commerce ministry today revised the rate for the week to Jan. 10 to 5.46 percent from 5.60%.

posted under - inflation updates, indian economy blog, economy of india, indian inflation updates, march inflation updates, economic crises updates

Economy may grow 6.5-7 pc in next fiscal year - (09-10)

The economy may expand between 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent in the year to March 2010, as stimulus measures are expected to revive growth, a member of Planning Commission said on Wednesday. Abhijit Sen, however, said there was need for more fiscal and monetary steps to maintain growth momentum in Asia's third largest economy hit by global slump and sluggish domestic demand.

"We have done a worst-case calculation on the basis of no effect of the stimulus and what we know currently about the world economy. On that basis, the worst case scenario is about 5 per cent growth," he said after a business conference.

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But the stimulus packages already announced were expected to ratchet up growth rate by 1.5 to 2 percentage points over and above the minimum assessment, he said. "That would take the growth rate to 6.5 to 7 per cent." Earlier, the government estimated 2008/09 growth at 7.1 per cent, but analysts have raised doubts after December quarter data showed a lower-than-expected 5.3 per cent expansion and the global economic situation worsened.

May be this prediction might be lowered down in later half of 2009 as the condition doesn't seem to improve in near future. who know's??

posted under - Indian economy blog, indian economy updates, economy of india, economic crises updates

IMF to India - more monetary steps required for fighting slowdown

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) on Wednesday advised India to initiate more monetary steps to battle the country's slowing economic growth, which the international multilateral agency expects to moderate to 6.25 per cent in the current fiscal and fall further by one percentage point in 2009-10.

With inflation softening to a six-year low of 2.43 per cent, there is scope for further easing of monetary policy, the IMF said in its review of the economy following Article IV consultations with the Indian authorities.

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"A number of (IMF) directors saw scope for further monetary easing, in (the) light of the projected decline in inflationary pressures and the need to reinforce confidence and sustain bank credit," the review said.

The IMF expects average inflation to moderate to 2 per cent in 2009-10 from about 8.8 per cent in the current fiscal. Inflation has been coming down consistently after touching a peak of 12.91 per cent in August last year.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the current fiscal has been projected at 6.25 per cent by the IMF, as against the government's forecast of 7.1 per cent.

The IMF expects the growth rate in the next fiscal (2009-10), beginning less than a fortnight from now, to fall to 5.25 per cent. As part of the annual exercise to review the economies of the member countries, the IMF's executive board had held consultations with the Indian authorities on February 6.

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While suggesting that India focus on monetary measures, the IMF cautioned that additional expenditure and more tax reliefs for fighting economic slowdown could raise public debt to unsustainable levels.

Noting that the key short-run policy objective should be to sustain liquidity and credit flows, the review said "monetary and structural policies will have to continue to carry most of the burden of adjustment".

And already the fiscal deficit of india has increased many times and government is still giving more sops to business houses and people just to get a WOW factor ahead of 15th general elections.

posted under - Economic crises updates, indian economy updates, economy of india, indian economy blog

India and China better then other bric countries

The global economic downturn has not left the emerging countries unscathed with India and China witnessing moderation in their economic growths, but experts believe the two countries are holding on relatively well among other developing nations.

According to a latest report by leading brokerage firm Sharekhan, "Asian emerging markets too are facing their own share of economic moderation owing to weakness in external trade, foreign inflows and economic sentiment. Importantly, India is holding on well, though the GDP growth has moderated to 5.3 per cent year-on-year (for Q3FY2009) compared with 7.6 per cent in Q2FY2009."

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Experts believe that though the fastest-growing economies of China and India have suffered some moderation, they are showing much more endurance than the other two countries in the BRIC pack - Brazil and Russia.

"Among the BRIC countries, India and China are relatively showing resilience as they are still reflecting GDP growth rates as high as six per cent to eight per cent," SMC Capitals equity head Jagannadham Thunuguntla said.

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Angel Broking Research Head Hitesh Agrawal also believes that India and China are relatively well-placed compared with Brazil and Russia, evident from the contractions witnessed in the latter two over the last six-eight quarters.

with extracts from economic times
posted under - indian economic updates, indian economy, bric countries, economy of india, economic slowdown and india

Economy Updates - Fiscal deficit at 7.8 pc of GDP

Indian Economy Updates - Including bonds issued to oil and fertiliser companies, the government's fiscal deficit for the year to March is estimated at 4.22 trillion rupees ($84 billion), the minister of state for finance said on Thursday. That equates to a total federal fiscal gap of 7.8 percent of gross domestic product.

Last week, the finance minister said in the budget speech the federal fiscal deficit would rise to 3.27 trillion rupees, or 6 percent of GDP, this financial year, but that did not include the off-balance sheet oil and fertiliser bonds.

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In a written reply to parliament, Pawan Kumar Bansal said a rise in global oil and food prices had lifted the government's subsidy bill, while stimulus packages to shield the economy from the global slump had raised expenditure.

"The fiscal deficit including the liability on account of securities issued during the year to oil marketing companies and fertiliser companies is (4.22 trillion) rupees," he said.

On Tuesday, Standard & Poor's cut its outlook on the country's long-term sovereign credit rating to negative from stable projecting the country's deficit, including off-budget items such as oil and fertiliser bonds, to increase to 11.4 percent in 2008/09, up from 5.7 percent in the previous year.

posted under - fiscal deficit, indian economy blog, economy of india, fiscal deficit updates, indian economy, economy of india, economic recession updates

Does US institutions really want to get out of crises

Well the world has been talking about the ongoing economic recession from september 2008 onwards probably this economic crises has been the longest running headlines i have ever seen, it's already into sixth month since it's inception. and still the markets are not responding in the positive manner and would not do so for atleast another 3-6 months according to me. US government and all the governments of the countries which have been swept by the tide of recession are pushing a lot of capital into the market so that the stagnant economy starts to move in the cycle again.

But still it seems like a distant island which the world economy is searching for right now. Government bailouts is certainly not doing the work neither are the job cuts or other cost cutting measures being taken. Already more then US$500 billion have been pushed into the economy by the US government. However indian economy would be less affected by this turmoil since 2/3rd of the industrial output of indian industries is consumed internally and only 1/3 rd of the output is exported to outer world , However the sectors which are directly depending on the other foreign companies like our very own outsourcing industry is feeling the heat with cost cutting measures and pink slips all around.

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All the governments are trying their level best by infusing more money into economy, still the danger of deflation is haunting business houses and industries as consumer confidence hits all time low in 50 years. Adding to the problem further is that whether US institutions which are getting grants from government in billions themselves want to put an end to ongoing crises ? the answer to this question after looking to latest company updates is a big NO, Citigroup ordered a corporate jet worth US $ 44 million whose delivery is ready(We do remember that Citi group is getting aid from US government and is already undergoing some major restructuring of the organization), Merill lynch has disbursed US$ 4 billion as bonuses to it's top brass(It was too in ailing condition and BOA had to do a takeover of Merill Lynch to help it and from last two quarters Merill Lynch has posted heavy lossess) so what are these bonuses for??

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US newly appointed president BaracK Obama came to know about these two incidents and has slapped both the institutions with overspending amid bad times and when your President slaps you there is no other option then taking back the moves which have been termed as overspending and not using govt funds for coming out of the bad times. So Citigroup has finally cancelled the order of $44 million corporate jet.

Adding further trouble is that European economies have slipped into condition which is even worse then the US. Governments have started showing bankruptcies, recently i read that government of Iceland has stated that the country iceland is into bankruptcy huhh!!

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And according to me european economies would take even more time then US to come out of the economic depression which has now become biggest since the great 1929 depression which we read in our history books.

posted under - economic crises, US companies, govt bailouts, US economy crises, economy of USA, world economy updates, indian economic advantage

India's Fiscal Deficit increasing further Condition Alarming

Our Country's current fiscal deficit situation is not comfortable, a top economic adviser said on Monday, while adding the economy was expected to grow at least 7 percent in the 2009/10 fiscal year.

"The fiscal deficit situation is not comfortable. It is important to go back to a comfortable fiscal situation as and when the economy starts improving," Suresh Tendulkar, chairman of Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, told a conference.

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"The FRBM Act is not going to be followed this year," he said referring to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act. Tendulkar also said lower interest rates were likely to come into play, but he did not elaborate.

Tendulkar said fiscal and monetary packages were infusing liquidity and would stimulate the economy. "The lagged effect of the stimulus packages are likely to take effect in the last quarter of this fiscal."

posted under - Indian Economy Updates, Economy of India, Indian Economy Blog, Indian Economy updates, Fiscal Deficit, Indian Fiscal Deficit
source - REUTERS

Govt hints at fiscal sops as well in vote-on-account

A day after stating that there is no constitutional bar on the interim budget announcing stimulus package, the government today said it will look at "everything" to push the industrial growth impacted by global downturn.

"This is still under formulation," Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said here when asked whether the government would unveil a package in the vote-on-account on February 16.

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Asked whether the package would contain the fiscal incentives as well, the minister said, "We will look at everything which will stimulate economy".

Home Minister P Chidambaram had said there was no constitutional bar on the government from announcing measures in the interim budget in the run-up to the general elections.

"Constitutionally there is no bar. But what the (finance) minister will do I cannot say," Chidambaram said when asked if the government can announce policy measures to stimulate economy in the vote on account.

posted under - Indian economy updates, indian economy blog, economy of india, indian policy makers, effect of crises on india
source - www.economictimes.com

China may contest India's toy import ban in WTO: Report

China is likely to drag India to the World Trade Organisation challenging the ban by New Delhi on Chinese toys, a media report said on Wednesday.

"The Chinese government is mulling a response to India's recent ban on Chinese toy imports and will probably ask the World Trade Organisation to investigate whether the ban violates WTO laws," the China Daily said quoting an anonymous source close to the issue.

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India had banned import of Chinese toys on January 23 for six months. While the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) in the Indian Commerce Ministry did not cite any reason for the ban, officials said the prohibition was necessary to protect kids from toxic hazards that may be associated with Chinese toys.

However, it is perceived here that ban by New Delhi was aimed at providing protection to the domestic industry from the Chinese manufacturers which claimed at least half of Rs 2,500 crore Indian toy market.

"It is a sign that China will be leveraging WTO rules to help protect its manufacturers from illegal trade barriers and punitive measures by its trading partners at a time when protectionism is growing amid the global economic recession," the newspaper said.

posted under - WTO updates, ban on toys, chinese toys banned, indian economy updates, ban on chinese toys
source - www.economictimes.com