Economy may grow 6.5-7 pc in next fiscal year - (09-10)

The economy may expand between 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent in the year to March 2010, as stimulus measures are expected to revive growth, a member of Planning Commission said on Wednesday. Abhijit Sen, however, said there was need for more fiscal and monetary steps to maintain growth momentum in Asia's third largest economy hit by global slump and sluggish domestic demand.

"We have done a worst-case calculation on the basis of no effect of the stimulus and what we know currently about the world economy. On that basis, the worst case scenario is about 5 per cent growth," he said after a business conference.

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But the stimulus packages already announced were expected to ratchet up growth rate by 1.5 to 2 percentage points over and above the minimum assessment, he said. "That would take the growth rate to 6.5 to 7 per cent." Earlier, the government estimated 2008/09 growth at 7.1 per cent, but analysts have raised doubts after December quarter data showed a lower-than-expected 5.3 per cent expansion and the global economic situation worsened.

May be this prediction might be lowered down in later half of 2009 as the condition doesn't seem to improve in near future. who know's??

posted under - Indian economy blog, indian economy updates, economy of india, economic crises updates

IMF to India - more monetary steps required for fighting slowdown

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) on Wednesday advised India to initiate more monetary steps to battle the country's slowing economic growth, which the international multilateral agency expects to moderate to 6.25 per cent in the current fiscal and fall further by one percentage point in 2009-10.

With inflation softening to a six-year low of 2.43 per cent, there is scope for further easing of monetary policy, the IMF said in its review of the economy following Article IV consultations with the Indian authorities.

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"A number of (IMF) directors saw scope for further monetary easing, in (the) light of the projected decline in inflationary pressures and the need to reinforce confidence and sustain bank credit," the review said.

The IMF expects average inflation to moderate to 2 per cent in 2009-10 from about 8.8 per cent in the current fiscal. Inflation has been coming down consistently after touching a peak of 12.91 per cent in August last year.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the current fiscal has been projected at 6.25 per cent by the IMF, as against the government's forecast of 7.1 per cent.

The IMF expects the growth rate in the next fiscal (2009-10), beginning less than a fortnight from now, to fall to 5.25 per cent. As part of the annual exercise to review the economies of the member countries, the IMF's executive board had held consultations with the Indian authorities on February 6.

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While suggesting that India focus on monetary measures, the IMF cautioned that additional expenditure and more tax reliefs for fighting economic slowdown could raise public debt to unsustainable levels.

Noting that the key short-run policy objective should be to sustain liquidity and credit flows, the review said "monetary and structural policies will have to continue to carry most of the burden of adjustment".

And already the fiscal deficit of india has increased many times and government is still giving more sops to business houses and people just to get a WOW factor ahead of 15th general elections.

posted under - Economic crises updates, indian economy updates, economy of india, indian economy blog

India and China better then other bric countries

The global economic downturn has not left the emerging countries unscathed with India and China witnessing moderation in their economic growths, but experts believe the two countries are holding on relatively well among other developing nations.

According to a latest report by leading brokerage firm Sharekhan, "Asian emerging markets too are facing their own share of economic moderation owing to weakness in external trade, foreign inflows and economic sentiment. Importantly, India is holding on well, though the GDP growth has moderated to 5.3 per cent year-on-year (for Q3FY2009) compared with 7.6 per cent in Q2FY2009."

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Experts believe that though the fastest-growing economies of China and India have suffered some moderation, they are showing much more endurance than the other two countries in the BRIC pack - Brazil and Russia.

"Among the BRIC countries, India and China are relatively showing resilience as they are still reflecting GDP growth rates as high as six per cent to eight per cent," SMC Capitals equity head Jagannadham Thunuguntla said.

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Angel Broking Research Head Hitesh Agrawal also believes that India and China are relatively well-placed compared with Brazil and Russia, evident from the contractions witnessed in the latter two over the last six-eight quarters.

with extracts from economic times
posted under - indian economic updates, indian economy, bric countries, economy of india, economic slowdown and india

Economy Updates - Fiscal deficit at 7.8 pc of GDP

Indian Economy Updates - Including bonds issued to oil and fertiliser companies, the government's fiscal deficit for the year to March is estimated at 4.22 trillion rupees ($84 billion), the minister of state for finance said on Thursday. That equates to a total federal fiscal gap of 7.8 percent of gross domestic product.

Last week, the finance minister said in the budget speech the federal fiscal deficit would rise to 3.27 trillion rupees, or 6 percent of GDP, this financial year, but that did not include the off-balance sheet oil and fertiliser bonds.

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In a written reply to parliament, Pawan Kumar Bansal said a rise in global oil and food prices had lifted the government's subsidy bill, while stimulus packages to shield the economy from the global slump had raised expenditure.

"The fiscal deficit including the liability on account of securities issued during the year to oil marketing companies and fertiliser companies is (4.22 trillion) rupees," he said.

On Tuesday, Standard & Poor's cut its outlook on the country's long-term sovereign credit rating to negative from stable projecting the country's deficit, including off-budget items such as oil and fertiliser bonds, to increase to 11.4 percent in 2008/09, up from 5.7 percent in the previous year.

posted under - fiscal deficit, indian economy blog, economy of india, fiscal deficit updates, indian economy, economy of india, economic recession updates

Does US institutions really want to get out of crises

Well the world has been talking about the ongoing economic recession from september 2008 onwards probably this economic crises has been the longest running headlines i have ever seen, it's already into sixth month since it's inception. and still the markets are not responding in the positive manner and would not do so for atleast another 3-6 months according to me. US government and all the governments of the countries which have been swept by the tide of recession are pushing a lot of capital into the market so that the stagnant economy starts to move in the cycle again.

But still it seems like a distant island which the world economy is searching for right now. Government bailouts is certainly not doing the work neither are the job cuts or other cost cutting measures being taken. Already more then US$500 billion have been pushed into the economy by the US government. However indian economy would be less affected by this turmoil since 2/3rd of the industrial output of indian industries is consumed internally and only 1/3 rd of the output is exported to outer world , However the sectors which are directly depending on the other foreign companies like our very own outsourcing industry is feeling the heat with cost cutting measures and pink slips all around.

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All the governments are trying their level best by infusing more money into economy, still the danger of deflation is haunting business houses and industries as consumer confidence hits all time low in 50 years. Adding to the problem further is that whether US institutions which are getting grants from government in billions themselves want to put an end to ongoing crises ? the answer to this question after looking to latest company updates is a big NO, Citigroup ordered a corporate jet worth US $ 44 million whose delivery is ready(We do remember that Citi group is getting aid from US government and is already undergoing some major restructuring of the organization), Merill lynch has disbursed US$ 4 billion as bonuses to it's top brass(It was too in ailing condition and BOA had to do a takeover of Merill Lynch to help it and from last two quarters Merill Lynch has posted heavy lossess) so what are these bonuses for??

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US newly appointed president BaracK Obama came to know about these two incidents and has slapped both the institutions with overspending amid bad times and when your President slaps you there is no other option then taking back the moves which have been termed as overspending and not using govt funds for coming out of the bad times. So Citigroup has finally cancelled the order of $44 million corporate jet.

Adding further trouble is that European economies have slipped into condition which is even worse then the US. Governments have started showing bankruptcies, recently i read that government of Iceland has stated that the country iceland is into bankruptcy huhh!!

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And according to me european economies would take even more time then US to come out of the economic depression which has now become biggest since the great 1929 depression which we read in our history books.

posted under - economic crises, US companies, govt bailouts, US economy crises, economy of USA, world economy updates, indian economic advantage

India's Fiscal Deficit increasing further Condition Alarming

Our Country's current fiscal deficit situation is not comfortable, a top economic adviser said on Monday, while adding the economy was expected to grow at least 7 percent in the 2009/10 fiscal year.

"The fiscal deficit situation is not comfortable. It is important to go back to a comfortable fiscal situation as and when the economy starts improving," Suresh Tendulkar, chairman of Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, told a conference.

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"The FRBM Act is not going to be followed this year," he said referring to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act. Tendulkar also said lower interest rates were likely to come into play, but he did not elaborate.

Tendulkar said fiscal and monetary packages were infusing liquidity and would stimulate the economy. "The lagged effect of the stimulus packages are likely to take effect in the last quarter of this fiscal."

posted under - Indian Economy Updates, Economy of India, Indian Economy Blog, Indian Economy updates, Fiscal Deficit, Indian Fiscal Deficit
source - REUTERS

Govt hints at fiscal sops as well in vote-on-account

A day after stating that there is no constitutional bar on the interim budget announcing stimulus package, the government today said it will look at "everything" to push the industrial growth impacted by global downturn.

"This is still under formulation," Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said here when asked whether the government would unveil a package in the vote-on-account on February 16.

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Asked whether the package would contain the fiscal incentives as well, the minister said, "We will look at everything which will stimulate economy".

Home Minister P Chidambaram had said there was no constitutional bar on the government from announcing measures in the interim budget in the run-up to the general elections.

"Constitutionally there is no bar. But what the (finance) minister will do I cannot say," Chidambaram said when asked if the government can announce policy measures to stimulate economy in the vote on account.

posted under - Indian economy updates, indian economy blog, economy of india, indian policy makers, effect of crises on india
source - www.economictimes.com

China may contest India's toy import ban in WTO: Report

China is likely to drag India to the World Trade Organisation challenging the ban by New Delhi on Chinese toys, a media report said on Wednesday.

"The Chinese government is mulling a response to India's recent ban on Chinese toy imports and will probably ask the World Trade Organisation to investigate whether the ban violates WTO laws," the China Daily said quoting an anonymous source close to the issue.

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India had banned import of Chinese toys on January 23 for six months. While the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) in the Indian Commerce Ministry did not cite any reason for the ban, officials said the prohibition was necessary to protect kids from toxic hazards that may be associated with Chinese toys.

However, it is perceived here that ban by New Delhi was aimed at providing protection to the domestic industry from the Chinese manufacturers which claimed at least half of Rs 2,500 crore Indian toy market.

"It is a sign that China will be leveraging WTO rules to help protect its manufacturers from illegal trade barriers and punitive measures by its trading partners at a time when protectionism is growing amid the global economic recession," the newspaper said.

posted under - WTO updates, ban on toys, chinese toys banned, indian economy updates, ban on chinese toys
source - www.economictimes.com

Rs v/s US$ daily updates - February 2009

Indian economy trends are very important for those who are into economic analysis in India, Indian National rupee popularly known as INR in international market is following a downward trend due to global financial turbulance. As volume of US dollars (USD) in international markets is on a decline so the value of US $ is growing up, well indian IT industrycan feel better to some extent and is the only industry which would be getting a plus from current market scenario.

The post would include (US$ v/$ rupee) daily trends the rate shown of Indian rupee would be as displayed at time of stock markets closure(mainly BSE and NSE) you can also see daily Stock market live rates and closing rates.

INR(Indian National rupee) v/s US$ November trends/updates are as follows:

format for display of rs v/s $ would be in following order:

(date | RS v/s $ rate Daily trends updates | Remarks with respect to US $)

6/2/2009 | 48.82 | Down(0.17) | Rupee (INR) fell weaker by 17 paise wrto US $

4/2/2009 | 48.80 | Down(0.21) | Rupee (INR) fell weaker by 21 paise wrto US $

2/2/2009 | 49.02 | Down(0.12) | Rupee (INR) fell weaker by 12 paise wrto US $

Recession to hit China more than India

According to economist James Mirrlees "The current global recession would hit China more than India", eminent Scottish economist James Mirrlees said on Wednesday. Since China's exports as proportion of national income were much higher than India, the Chinese economy would be hit hard due to the recession, Mirrlees, who received the Nobel memorial prize in economic sciences in 1996, said here.

Unwilling to compare the present downturn with the Great Depression of the Thirties, Mirrlees said that India could not remain insulated from the recession.

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He said that every country would be hit to some extent. Asked how long the recession would last, the economist said "it is difficult to predict."

He advocated that government expenditure would have to be stepped up. "I am very Keynesian in my approach. It seems that the stimulus packages announced by governments are enough to reverse the trends," he said. He also said that there was a need for stringent regulations in the financial markets.

posted under - India economy updates, economy of india, indian economy blog, economy of india, indian economic updates
source-PTI

Inflation for week inches Up - due to trucker's strike

Breaking the 10-week down ward streak, whole sale price inflation for the week ended January 10 inched up to 5.6% on the back of firmer food prices. The inflation for food items has touched a 10-year high of 11.64% as the trucker's strike, which went on from January 5 to 12, made food items costlier. Wholesale price inflation was at 5.24% in the week before and was at 4.36 % in corresponding week last year.

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Economists dismissed the spike in inflation as a blip in the easing trajectory of inflation. More than 5 million Indian truckers have gone on strike from January 5 to 12 creating a shortage for food items and making it costlier over the week. Vegetables became costlier by almost 19% over the week while the prices of fruits and cereals also moved up. Inflation for food items moved up by one and a half percentage points from the previous week’s levels.

The 10-year benchmark bond yields closed at 5.84 %, after inflation came slightly above market expectations. The yields have touched a high of 6% in the morning trade. The 10-year bond yields is a percentage point above record low of 4.86% of January 5, following rate cuts by the central bank.The yields of ten year papers closed at 5.89% on Wednesday.

posted under - Indian inflation updates, inflation january 2009, inflation in india, Indian inflation updates, indian economy blog, inflation updates

No Change in Tax Structure - MS Ahluwalia

Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia on Tuesday ruled out the possibility of any further change in the tax structure in the current fiscal(2008-09). "The government has already taken enough fiscal measures to boost the domestic economy," Mr MS Ahluwalia said.

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"We feel whatever has been done is sufficient and have not proposed another stimulus package for this financial year. Whatever has been done so far is sufficient and should be implemented," Mr Ahluwalia said in a conference organised by industry body FICCI.


Posted under - Tax structure , india economy updates, indian economy blog, MS Ahluwalia, Planning commision updates

Economy Updates - India's investment in Sri Lanka dips by $1.33 mn

India's investment in Sri Lanka has declined by $ 1.33 million to $ 6.93 million in the last fiscal, despite big domestic companies investing in the island nation.

"The approved Indian investments in Sri Lanka were $ 8.26 million in 2006-07 and $ 6.93 million during 2007-08," Commerce Minister Kamal Nath said at a meeting with Sri Lankan Minister of Export Development and International Trade G L Peiris, here today.The trade between the countries stood at USD 3.45 billion in 2007-08 as against $ 2.72 billion in the previous year, up by 27 per cent.

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In another meeting with Tanzanian Industry Minister Mary Nagu, Nath said there is a need for greater trade ties between the countries and investors could avail the opportunities of the favourable investment climate in India, particularly in the sectors like telecommunication, fibre-optics, tourism and infrastructure development.

The trade between India and Tanzania stood at $752 million during 2007-08. India exports fine chemicals, electronic goods and transport equipment to Tanzania.


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Meanwhile, the trade between India and Bhutan has grown significantly from a level of USD 141.86 million in 2003-2004 to $ 281.17 million in 2007-2008.India's import from Bhutan is valued at $194.48 million.The major items of exports from Bhutan to India, include , cement, timber and wood products, minerals.

posted under - Indian Economy, economy of india, indian economy blog, india economy updates

Reason how infosys showed 35% YoY profit amid slowdown

Infosys (Nasdaq INFY) is second largest exporter of software and services of India and represents Indian INC's at global level thats nice stats actually recently Infosys posted a 35 percent rise in profits for 3rd quarter when compared to corresponding quarter last year, I always wondered how a company can show such rise in profits in such a weak market which is prevelant all over the world so i thought to go inside the working of the software exporter to see which manegerial decisions are backing such increase in revenues where all the other companies are reeling amid financial slowdown which started as mortagage crises in US and now has engulfed all the major economies into recession and there is prevelant danger of deflation all around the world.

i do have friends in infy too so this is not only my opinion and has inputs from infy related people too so it can't be mistaken. Almost all the indian software services companies are making bucks on projects in which clients (mostly of US) pay per person per hour basis and according to resources indian companies charge anywhere between $15 - $20 per hour per person from it's clients sitting in US . This figure is very minimal for the clients which otherwise have to pay atleast double the amount if they hire in US itself.

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most of the IT companies love to get projects where client pay on per person per hour basis including Infosys, TCS, Wipro and many other's which are serving US on 24*7 basis, other type of proects which are fixed capital projects contribute less then 20% of almost all the indian IT companies, Indian IT companies get minimum US $ 15 (pph) however they give barely $2 per hour to employee ($2 = INR100) roughly so the rest $13 goes into pocket of Indian IT companies so the profit margins for infosys are huge.

I always wondered how a company with 30/100 employees always on bench can get that profits, It may also be noted that the employees on bench are very important for indian IT cos to get new projects because they have to show to potential client about the headcount in order to get new projects, one of my friend told me that there are certain cases in which Indian IT cos show employees that are working in fixed capital projects into the time manpower projects in order to get more bucks from the foreign clients, So it is clear thatIndian IT companies pay salary of over 1 lac employees from ~70000 employees which are billed and rest 30k employees are kept as reserve for showing to potential clients that ther is adequate number of employees of various technologies required by the clients.

Move 1 by managment of Infy : they have made it mandatory for a team to work for atleast 1 saturday or sunday per month. and employee can take any one day off any time in a month but has to come on saturday or sunday on which whole team is working.
Effect - One billing day for client increased and all the employees will never go on leave for the same day of the month so in all one working day increased compulsary in the month so that company can charge the client for that saturday or sunday.

Move 2 - Now what infosys is doing presently is putting more work pressure on already billed employees (which are paid on per hour basis) to work more, recently infosys increased the working hours of employees from 8 hrs a day to 9:30 hrs(exact time changes may differ) now these employees are billed on per hour basis at a whopping amount of minimum $15 per person/hour. So add to it 1:30 hrs more per person per day and multiply it with total number of employees billed in similar manner(25*70000 extra) client has done contract for a fixed period which can,t be changed now, so the revenue per employee has increased however number of employees have not increased neither there is any fall in number of onbench employees (in order to get new projects) This might be a good manegerial decision at this time when there is economic slump and not much openings in much companies so employees of infosys can't do anything rather then working inhuman number of hours in their cubical and Infosys is making much mileage from market employment condition without thinking about the employees , It may be noted that policies of infosys have never been employee favourable and they want to suck even last drop of blood from their employees so that they get $ 15- $30 per hour more /employee from the client. Poor infoscians i guess but they have no other options in present market situation.

Also Read :
-Effect of Recession on Indian Economy
-Economies hit by recession
-Plan for World Economy Revival
-World's Strongest economies list
-US Economic recession-how it started

also there are other cost cutting steps going on in infosys like stationary products cut etc, there is only minor difference between infosys and TCs that is only that infosys management love to call media and give one or two statements on daily basis so that brand value is mantained but i think they should care more about the employees working for them rather then giving statements to media on daily basis, I have never seen any of the other IT companies making such hype of their company, i mean TCS is even bigger then infosys in each and every aspect. we'll thats a nice publicity stunts done by infy management without giving a penny in advertisements, however i think they should do more work in reducing the high attrition rate prevelant in their company. so that was the difference between infosys and TCS, TCS (rather whole TATA group does most work rather then speaking in public on daily basis and taking everything out of employees).

And one similarity between Infosys and Fraud affected company Satyam is that in both of the companies promoters are not the owners of the companies , ie they can't do anything on their own, TCS and Wipro are placed very firmly on that aspect as the promorters own majority stake of the company and are real owners of the companies.

So I end this post here as i wanted to clear the reason why and how Infosys have managed to show 35% YoY growth of revenues. hope it's now clear to you about the working of infosys especially in this slowdown.

posted under - Infosys updates, infosys turnover, indian IT companies, Indian economy blog, indian economy updates, economy of india, Indian IT cos, Infy updates, Infosys news

Indian Economy to grow 7% this fiscal says Rangarajan

The economy is expected to grow at a moderate level of around 7 per cent in the current and the next fiscal, but would bounce back in
2010-11, noted economist and Rajya Sabha member C Rangarajan said on Thursday.

"The growth rate for 2008-09 would be about 7 per cent and for the next fiscal also it will be around 7 per cent. In 2010-11, it will pick up, depending on the global scenario," Rangarajan told reporters here.

On recovery of industrial growth to 2.4 per cent in November from a dismal negative growth of 0.3 per cent in the previous month, Rangarajan said it would be around 5 per cent for the current fiscal.

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"There may be some improvement from January onwards but over the year Industrial growth would be low... around 5 per cent," said Rangarajan, who headed the PM's Economic Advisory Council earlier.

Industrial growth stood at 3.9 per cent during April- November, 2008.

Rangarajan said the fiscal stimulus packages given by the government is adequate for the current fiscal and due to the liquidity injection into the system by the RBI, the banking system has enough fund.

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The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council Chairman Suresh Tendulkar had also said the current fiscal is likely to end with a minimum GDP growth rate of 7 per cent, down from 7.7 per cent projected earlier by PMEAC.

posted under - economy of india, indian economy trends, indian gdp , Indian economy updates, indian rupee updates
source - www.economictimes.com