Key rates decision after analysing Inflation problem root - RBI

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary stance will depend on whether it perceives inflation as stemming from excessive liquidity or due to supply constraints, the country's top civil servant said.

On Tuesday, Cabinet Secretary K.M. Chandrasekhar allayed concerns of persistently high prices, reiterating the government's forecast of headline inflation easing to 5-6 percent by the end of the year.

India's annual headline inflation stayed above 10 percent for the fifth straight month in June, cementing expectations the RBI will raise interest rates for a second time this month to contain price pressures.

A majority of economists expect the RBI to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points in its quarterly review on July 27 and tighten policy further in coming quarters, a new Reuters poll showed.

"A call will have to be taken by the Reserve Bank (RBI) on whether inflation is on account of high money supply or is it on account of certain sectoral reasons, some supply constraints," Chandrasekhar told a news conference.

Some analysts have pegged capacity constraints in the rapidly expanding economy as the main reason for a surge in non-food inflation, pointing out a slowdown in May industrial output, despite robust domestic consumer demand.

Further, expansion in the M3 money supply, the broadest measure of liquidity in the system, has just picked up after slowing down since the year began and lags credit expansion.

Exports to EU countries increases

According to latest report exports to EU union have increase YoY. So does it mean that EU is coming out of bad times...The answer might not be so easy currently, have to wait for another quarter for sure to analyse.

Details:

Exports from India to the 27-member EU increased by 18 percent to 10.7 billion euros in January-April 2010, compared to 9.1 billion euros in the corresponding period last year. and also Exports from the European Union (EU) to India shot up by 28 percent to 10.6 billion euros (about $13 billion) between January and April 2010, compared to 8.3 billion euros in the corresponding period last year,

Good Move - Rs 8000 crores for mid day meal scheme

This year the Centre has alloted rs 8000 crore for the mid day meal scheme , hence there would be more enrolment for schools for sure thus increasing the number of literates in country.

Flashing back to midday scheme: Mid-day meal scheme was first evolved by former Tamil Nadu chief minister K Kamaraj and now it has been taken as a role model for the entire country.

Pathetic - Gujarat Gov unable to collect Tax dues

The booming economy of Gujarat has a darker side too.. as their are many big companies which do not pay their taxes and Owe 4000 crores as taxes from 2006 onwards.

The biggest revenue churner for the state government — the commercial tax department that accounts for 60-70 per cent of the state government’s revenue — may have breathed down a small trader’s neck to recover dues. The department , however, find it difficult to explain why they have been unable to recover Rs 4,775 crore from 13 major units in the state since 2006. The amount includes Rs 1,264 crore in interest.

Indian Economy's GDP pegged at 5 perc for 2010-11

Indian Economy's fiscal deficit for year 2010-11 is predicted to be in line of 5 percent of GDP according to Nomura. Which means it is much less then the predicted.

The government is also looking at raising Rs 40,000 crore through disinvestment this fiscal. It has already raised over Rs 1.06 lakh crore from the sale of spectrum for 3G and Broadband Wireless Services (BWA) services.

The research firm also said that one-off expenses on pay arrears and fiscal stimulus are set to fade. Hence government would borrow 15000 crores less in this financial year.

I am waiting when India would see it's first budget with zero deficit, that day will be golden day for Indian Economy....cheers!!

Normal Monsoon brigtens hopes for decrease in prices :)

(posted under - Monsoon updates, Economy of India) -As the country is now completely witnessing normal monsoons all over, The monsoon is ahead of schedule by 9 days according to metrological department, The Inflation will surely come down in couple of months from now on..

The revival of monsoon rains, the main source of water for 60 per cent Indian farms, will lift soybean and groundnut crops in the world's top vegetable oils importer and help the cane crop in the Uttar Pradesh state, which produces half the cane in the world's top sugar consumer.

The weather office expects total June-September rainfall to be normal despite the June deficit.

Indian Economy booming - Direct tax collection up 15 percent

(posted under Direct tax collection, Indian economy updates) - collection of direct taxes during the first quarter of the current fiscal increased by over a full 15 per cent, driven mainly by higher realisation from the corporate sector.

The higher realisation of direct taxes, which mainly include corporate tax and income tax, went up to Rs 68,675 crore, as against Rs 59,465 crore during the corresponding period last fiscal.

According to the figures released by the Finance Ministry here today, corporate tax collection, which is a reflection on the performance of India Inc, soared 21.65 per cent to Rs 43,439 crore during the reporting period. The government expects to mop up Rs 4.3 lakh crore by way of direct taxes during the current fiscal, an increase of over 13 per cent over the year-ago period.

Is budget 2010 provisions on track??

It has been 4 months since Pranab Mukherjee presented the Union budget 2010 in Parliament. Now the big question is that Are budget provisions on track.

The list of announcements made during budget speech is as following ans I will soon update the present growth of these provisions in reality.

1. Pranab cuts surcharge for corporate, ups MAT
2. First challenge is to get to the high GDP growth path
3. Oil & gas: Budget 2010 low on reforms, high on tax
4. Actual net market borrowing for 2010/11 seen at Rs3.45 trillion
5.15% increase in plan expenditure in 2010/11
6. Defence allocation raised to 1.47 lakh cr
7. Customs duty on silver at Rs1500/kg
8. Pranab Mukherjee allots Rs 173 crore for infra development
9. Service tax remains unchanged at 10%
10. India received FDI worth $20.9 bn in April to Dec 2009 period
11. New Corporate Tax rate at 33.21%
12. FM says economy now is in far better position
13. Rs50/tonne cess on Indian coal
14. Cut in Personal Tax Rate Savings of Rs50,000-8lac
15. Excise duty on CFL halved
16. FM’s Budget makes tobacco cos cough
17. Waive excise duty on solar panels
18. Govt will implement direct tax code by April 1, 2011
19. Agricultural seeds exempted from service tax
20. RBI to release additional licenses to pvt sector banks and non-banking financial institutions
21. Raise excise duty on non-petro products to 10%
22. Implementation of GST and DTC by April 2011
23. Opposition walks out of the Budget session
24. Sets aside Rs 16500 cr for PSU banks to get minimum 8% tier 1 capital by March 2011
25. Restore 5% basic customs duty on crude petroleum
26. Partial roll back of excise duties of large cars
27. Explicit reduction in domestic public debt equity ratio: FM
28. Excise duty raised on all non-smoking tobacco
29. Centeral Excise Tax on petroleum products raised by Re1
30. Raises excise duty from 8% to 10%
31. R&D deduction increased
32. Surcharge for companies cut to 7.5% from 10%
33. MAT increased form 15% to 18%
34. 30% tax on income above 8 lac
35. 20% tax on salary between 5-8lac
36. Govt to set up apex level Financial Stability and Development Council
37. 10% tax for income between 1.6-5 lac
38. No income tax on salary up to of Rs1.6 lac
39. Fiscal deficit seen at 4.8% in FY12
40. FY11 fiscal deficit pegged at 5.5% of GDP
41. Increase in non-planned expenditure is only 6%
42. Planning Commission to plan development of Maoist affected areas
43. Rs 1,900 cr to authorities working to implement UID number
44. UID number to come into effect the coming year
45. Fuel prices to go up from tonight
46. 15% priority lending to minority sector to be maintained
47. Gradual phasing out of stimulus: FM
48. Plan outlay for welfare of women and children doubled
49. Smart card extended to NREGA scheme
50. Raises allocation for health ministry to Rs22,300 crore
51. Bharat Nirman plan for FY11 has outlay of Rs48,000cr
52. Indira Awaas Yojana allocation at Rs1,000 cr
53. More power to aam aadmi; FM cuts tax rates
54. Raises allocation for urban development by 75% to 5400cr
55. NREGA allocation at Rs40,100 cr
56. Social sector spending at Rs1.38 trillion for FY11
57. Stocks/sectors you should bet on post Budget
58. Increase allocation for school education from to 31,036 cr from 26,800 cr
59. Hike allotment to renewable energy by 61%
60. Doubled allocation for power sector
61. Hope to breach 10% mark in GDP in near future: FM
62. Road development allocation raised to 19,894
63. FM doubles allocation, solar power gets boost
64. Proposes to extend interest subvention for export for 1 yr
65. Will reduce fertilizer subsidies
66. Aims to implement GST and Direct Tax Code in April 2011

India's trade deficit to widen to 154 billion in 2011/12

India's trade deficit is forecast to widen in the 2010/11 fiscal year as its rebounding economy raises demand for manufacturing and oil imports, while the euro zone debt crisis hits exports, mainly in software.

A wider deficit would pressure the partially convertible rupee, which has lost more than 5 per cent from its 2010 peak of 44.18 to the US dollar.

India's trade deficit was $117.3 billion in 2009/10, down from $118.7 billion in 2008/09. But a Reuters survey in April forecast the gap would widen to $132.70 billion in 2010/11 and $154.50 billion in 2011/12.

Worst Economies of World

Well I have already posted about the best economies of world, If you have not read that post here is the link Best economies of world, Now I thought why not post about the worst economies of world, So here I start....

Country Name	Rank
Zimbabwe	1
Democratic Republic of Congo	2
Guinea	3
Sierra Leone	4
Nicaragua	5
Burundi	6
Eritrea	7
Liberia	8
Ghana	9
Madagascar	10

the list is based on forbes.com work

Indian Cos investments in USA everincreasing

Indian investment in 2008 was USD 4.5 billion but the investments in 2009 grew 60 per cent higher than investments in the previous year. He was quoting from a yet to be published report by India US World Affairs Institute and the University of Maryland.

This feat has been achieved by acquiring 372 businesses by Indian companies in the US between 2004 and 2009 worth USD 21 billion. which has created an estimated 40,000 employments in the US.

FDI's are down as recession re-emerges from Europe

Foreign direct investment in India dipped for the second month in a row in April to $2.21 billion, down 5.1 per cent over the year-ago period.

In March, the inflows had contracted by about 38 per cent to $1.2 billion. The inflows in the first three months of 2010 were $4.96 billion, down 20 per cent from $6.17 billion in the corresponding period last year.

Fiscal deficit 2009-10 marginal better then Govt Expectations

India's fiscal deficit for the 2009/10 fiscal year that ended on March 31 was Rs 4.12 trillion ($88.9 billion), the government said in a statement on Monday.

The deficit is equivalent to 6.6 per cent of India's gross domestic product (GDP), according to a Reuters calculation, and was slightly lower than the government's revised target of 6.7 per cent.

In February, the government had revised its fiscal deficit estimate for the year to Rs 4.14 trillion. Tax receipts were Rs 4.59 trillion and total expenditure was Rs 10.19 trillion for the 2009/10 fiscal year.

Govt speeds up PSUs stake sale

India's cabinet approved a plan to speed up the sale of stakes in state-owned companies as the government aims to make nationalised companies more responsive to markets as well as cutting the fiscal deficit.

The cabinet will allow state-run companies to appoint investment bankers and other intermediaries at the same time as they seek cabinet approval for stake sales, allowing IPOs to proceed more quickly when market conditions allow.

Previously companies had to wait for cabinet approval before moving ahead with preparations, causing delays that have already sparked problems with valuations as market dip.

BRIC economies growth predictions 2010 - 11

China, India, Brazil and Russia are powering ahead, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Wednesday, revising upwards its growth outlook for all four largest emerging economies.

With the expected rebound of agricultural output in India, growth should be strong in the near term while inflationary pressures would also remain high amid strong outlook for demand.

Russia should use windfall oil revenues to eliminate fiscal deficits more quickly but if oil prices and capital inflows continue to increase rapidly the country would face another boom-and-bust cycle.

In Brazil, infrastructure investment will help lift growth again despite tighter monetary policies and the beginning of spending cuts