CII's Survey projects growth of 6-7 % for present fiscal year

(posted under - Indian economy news) - Out of 134 respondents participated in the CII Northern Region Business Outlook Survey, more than half said that India's economic growth is likely to be in the range of 6-7 per cent in the current fiscal.

"Global economic instability followed by slackening consumer demand are the two most important concern areas," it said.

The survey also said that the overall outlook for business is better for the current six months (October-March 2009-10) compared to the previous six months.

Over 50 per cent of the respondents expects an increase in investments during the current six months.

On exports, it said that the outward shipment seems to be much better for October-March. "Fifty-one per cent of the respondents expected an increase in volume of exports," it added.

India's exports are on downslide since October 2008 due to the global slump in demand.

Government of India approves FDI's worth over 1150 crore

(posted under - FDI's in india) - The government of india has approved 17 foreign direct investment (FDI) proposals worth Rs 1,158.78 crore.

Among the major proposals which were approved today are the FDI applications of the world's largest steelmaker ArcelorMittal and ductile iron pipe maker Electrosteel Castings, a government statement said.

ArcelorMittal, with an FDI of Rs 503.37 crore, plans to infuse foreign equity into a company engaged in manufacturing cold-rolled semi-finished iron and steel products.

The Kolkata-based Electrosteel Castings plans to issue and allot eligible securities including equity shares and/ or non-convertible debt instruments along with warrants on a private placement basis bringing in FDI worth Rs 600 crore.

Meanwhile, the government deferred a decision on 12 FDI proposals and rejected five on the recommendations of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB).

The proposal to infuse 100 per cent foreign equity by Jaipur IPL Cricket Pvt Ltd (the promoters of the Rajasthan Royals which won the 2008 IPL), has been rejected by the government.

The government referred the proposals of Jet Airways to bring in Rs 2,000 crore FDI and the Mauritius-based investment fund Indium IV to bring in Rs 2,500 crore FDI, to the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) as the proposals are of value above Rs 600 crore.

Cheers - Indian economy to be worth $ 2 trillion by fiscal year 2014-15

India will be a $2-trillion economy in the next five years as its GDP growth is likely to average at 12 per cent in nominal terms powered by a huge consumption demand, Enam Securities has said.

"India's GDP is likely to grow at (an) average 12 per cent in nominal terms. Hence, India will be a $2-trillion economy by 2014-15," Enam Securities Head-Research, Nandan Chakraborty, and economist Sachchidanand Shukla said in a report titled 'India Strategy' released today.

This growth will be led by the huge consumption demand in sectors like FMCG, power, auto (small car hub), IT and pharma, it added.

The brokerage firm said insurance companies, financial services and equity markets will flourish as the country's annual savings pool grows to $700 billion from $400 billion at present.

"More than half of this ($700 billion) could flow into financial savings. With favourable demographics and average seven per cent real growth, India can sustain more than 30 per cent savings rate akin to the Asian tigers, or China and Japan. This will transform the domestic financial services space," Enam said.

Life insurance penetration in India, which is already a USD one-trillion economy, is estimated to reach a level of 4.4 per cent over the next two years as insurance companies focus on expanding into rural India, the report said.

source - economictimes

How rising interest rates affect currencies and gold

When a company raises its dividend, its stock becomes more attractive to investors. Its share price rises. When a bank raises interest rates on its savings accounts, people deposit more money in the bank. It's the same way in the currency markets. Rising interest rates make a currency more attractive and it rises against other currencies with stable interest rates. Central banks around the world have been cutting rates for two years, and interest rates are as low now as they've ever been.

The governor of Australia's central bank hinted there would be more interest rate rises on the way. This could be the start of a new trend of rising interest rates around the world. If this is the start of a new trend of rising world interest rates, you can expect big new trends in the currency exchange markets, too. That's because interest rates are the single most important driver of exchange rates in the currency markets.

So how do we make money from a new global trend of rising interest rates?

While other central banks are considering raising rates, the Fed has so far refused to join the party. The dollar is the worst-performing major currency in the world this year as a result.

The recent unemployment report showed that somewhere close to 6 million jobs have vanished from the American economy in the last 18 months. The employment situation hasn't been this bad. With the ongoing unemployment, rate hikes in America are unlikely until next year.

First, this gives us a great opportunity to buy the dollar right now, while it's cheap and no one is anticipating rate hikes from the Fed. By the time Bernanke announces his first rate hike next year, the dollar will have already rallied 10% or more.
Second, a trend of rising interest rates on currencies is great for people looking to buy gold at lower prices. Gold has no interest rate. So when interest rates rise on world currencies, they become more attractive – and they rise – relative to gold. This is especially true with the dollar. It's the world's reserve currency and gold is incredibly sensitive to movements in its interest and exchange rates.

As long as unemployment keeps rising, there's no way the Fed raises interest rates and gold prices will stay high. But next year is a different story. The first hint of rate increases by the Fed will send shockwaves into the gold market.

Trade between India & Malaysia to increase

"Currently the bilateral trade between the two countries is USD 10.5 billion. Around 20 per cent of trade was affected due to recession.We are hoping to see the trade grow by early next year,' Mohamed told on the sidelines of a function.

Earlier, participating as the chief guest at the 10th Anniversary celebration of Marrybrown Family Restaurant here, he said the success of Marrybrown would motivate other companies in Malaysia to venture into the Indian market.

There were around 15 Malaysian companies present in the country while 20 Indian companies were present in Malaysia.

Marrybrown Founder and Malaysian operations Managing Director Nancy Liew said the restaurant was present in 13 countries having more than 300 outlets.As part of increasing their presence, new restaurants were recently opened in Dubai, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, Tanzania and Iran.

Marrybrown India Managing Director MGM Anand said 12 more outlets would be added to the existing 30 restaurants in South India.

Indian infrastructure output increases by 4 percent

India's infrastructure sector output grew 4 percent in September from a year earlier, slower than upwardly revised annual growth of 7.8 percent in August, government data showed on Wednesday.

During April-September, the first half of the 2009/10 year, output rose 5 percent compared with 3.4 percent in the same period in 2008/09.

The infrastructure sector accounts for 26.7 percent of India's industrial output.

Timeline for duty free sugar import

India has extended tax-free white sugar imports until December 2010 as the world's biggest consumer of the sweetener faces robust demand and shrinking domestic output.

India's sugar season runs from October to September. The country's sugar output in the year that ended on Sep. 30 fell to 15 million tonnes from 26.4 million, forcing it to import 5 million tonnes and lifting raw sugar futures to the highest in nearly three decades.

Problem of black economy in india

Indian economy has crossed the 1 trillion worth mark and per capita income in india has also crossed the $3000 mark THATS a very good news indeed...but indian economy is actually worth more then the 1.13 trillion worth for sure thanks to the black economy which runs in parallel along with the white economy. that is worth $ 1+ trillion worth, still majority of trading in india is done in grey market which government doesn't come to know about or may be they know it but since many of their money earning sources are part of black economy they try to pretend as they are not aware of it.. what a pity on indian economy.

the growth of black economy in india can be controlled if the currency notes and coins come with an renewal date.. yes i know it may sound a little weird or horrible but it might be very effective, one good effect would be that more black money which currently doesnot circulate in market would come in circulation and the MP's MLA's beaurocrats which are indulged heavily in corrupt practices would be most effective.

The currency note which has met with exppiry date cannot be used until they are renewed by some government authorized agencies which should be independent of government and should be controlled directly by Reserve bank of india (RBI).

The other important plus point about this type of renewal based economy is that the Indian money which is deposited in Swiss banks and is unknown to the indian government would also be required for renewal which would be a major instrument in ending the black economy, we all know that the politicians have huge assets in their swiss bank accounts , renewal based economy would also help in improved circulation of economy in market.

RBI should maintain a database for all such renewal activities and it should further distribute such economy date renewal to state levels and then to district levels with a centralised system, thus we would also come to know about the Indian economy status in individual states. but one thing is sure that indian politicians and major business houses including some of the biggest indian businesses would be against such renewal based economy as their black money based assests would become public when they show them for renewal.

the Idea looked very interesting to me as it would really help in bringing money deposited in swiss banks, in unauthorised bank accounts in india, black money belonging to business houses and belonging to individuals too would be brought in notice of RBI.

I was talking to one of my relative about this type of currency which comes with a renewal date, so thought of posting it on my blog to get to know what the other fellow indians think about it.

So what do you think about such move so that the black economy would end

World Bank approves $4.2 billion loan for India

The World Bank approved more loans equalling to $4.2 billion to India for three projects.

The loan amount will be divided in following manner - $2 billion for state-run banks, with IIFC receiving $1.195 billion to fund infrastructure projects, and PowerGrid Corp getting $1 billion to upgrade India's power transmission system. so we'll get less power cuts this time

Recession finally easing as forex reserves increase :)

Just came across news that indian forex reserves increased for the week which might be indication that foreign investors are betting on india again and thats the reason US $ reached 47.0 levels so thats a sigh of relief for the sectors which are hit by recession. so the forex reserves on october 2nd week aere at 280 billion US$.
The Fossil Fuel free economy

Govt collects 3.69 percent more direct taxes in september

The Indian Finance ministry has collected 3.10 per cent more in direct taxes in September at Rs 64,737 crores compared to the same period last year.

The growth in government's corporate tax collection for the fist half of this fiscal was more pronounced at 5.55 per cent over last year's. In the first six months, Rs 1,00,572 was collected in corporate taxes compared to Rs 95,283 crore last year, the Central Board of Direct taxes in a statement

However, Personal Income Tax collection for the first half at Rs 51,897 crore saw only a marginal rise of 0.38 per cent over last fiscal. The figures include Securities Transaction Tax and residual Fringe Benefit Tax and Banking Cash Transaction Tax.

IMF predicts Indian economy to grow 5.4% in 2009

The International Monetary Fund projected Indian economic growth at 5.4 per cent in 2009, implying a slower growth in the second half of this calendar year.

In its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook released in Istanbul, the Fund lowered the projection for the next year by 0.1 per cent to 6.4 per cent.

The Indian economy grew by 5.8 per cent in the first quarter and 6.1 per cent in the second quarter of this calendar year.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman have expressed doubts whether the economy will grow at the rate of 6.1 per cent in the third and fourth quarters of 2009 due to an weak monsoon.

The economy grew by 7.3 per cent in 2008 and 9.4 per cent in 2007. If the IMF projections prove correct, it would grow at the least rate in recent years due to the global financial crisis and drought.

source PTI

Indian Exports still in red as world economy still under recession

India's merchandise exports fellh in August, with the value of shipments falling 19.4 per cent to $14.29 billion from $17.72 billion in the like month of last year.


Imports during August were valued at $22.66 billion, showing a drop of 32.4 per cent, while the cumulative figure for the five-month period was down 33.4 per cent at $102.3 billion, showed the data released by the commerce ministry.

also read -
Welcome the future of world economy

"Although the downtrend in our exports continued in August, it is worth noting the rate of decline has come down to below 20 per cent compared to 28-33 per cent in each of the preceding four months," said the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).

"It would be a formidable challenge even to maintain the level of exports reached last year. This would mean we have to achieve a robust growth of over 32 per cent in the remaining seven months of 2009-10 to touch the $182 billion mark of in 2008-09."

The country's oil import bill also fell 47.4 per cent during the five-month period ended Aug 31 to $28.28 billion, from $53.74 billion in the corresponding period of last fiscal. In August, oil imports fell 45.5 per cent to $6.28 billion from $11.52 billion.
Welcome the future of world economy
Accordingly, the country's trade deficit during April-August was estimated at $38.17 billion, which was lower than the deficit of $60.73 billion during the like period last year.

Future World Economy - The fossil fuel free economy

greetings from himanshu to all the readers of the blog - so here i start -

we all must be thinking that world economic recession has ended...but wait a minute and rethink it again ! fuel prices are hovering at $72 per barrel in market and set to reach the $ 100+ per dollar mark in near future so the future looks dark again :(


The world economy should now start shifting from fossil fuel based economy to fossil fuel free economy which it is slowly starting to do.. but wait When the ongoing global recession will be completly over that is when the production in USA reaches the same level (before the recession) when all the factories start working again in full flow , when the asian countries start exporting goods to US at same rate , when the jobless claims in USA becomes nil and there are more job openings in there.. Have anybody thought what can happen then??

Well the crude oil prices would skyrocket and could well go beyond the $ 200 mark this time and a double dip recession will again haunt the global economy because presently the global economy is fossil fuel based economy and i think that the pace of shifting the global economy from crude oil based economy to crude oil free economy should increase considerably if we want that no recession should prevale any more in future, actually this is a very big task "SHIFTING OF GLOBAL ECONOMY FROM FOSSIL FUEL BASED ECONOMY TO FOSSIL FUEL FREE ECONOMY" presently in the world every thing is governed or in other words is dependent on prices of fossil fuels as everything uses fossil fuels.

and we all know that fossil fuels are limited and the middle east countries would never increase the production from present levels (for decreasing the prices) because if they do this now their own future would be very very dark. i think that was one reason that US attacked Iraq some years back to get hold of the key oil assets present in Iraq (kudos to Bush for such a shrewd thinking..) . the shift should be now gradually to the battery powered energy, nuclear energy, solar enregy(which i think would be biggest energy source in future .. in the same way as fossil fuels are today)

For protecting the double dip recession we should now shift our thinking from conventional sources of energy to renewable sources of energy like the sun, and wind i talked about few lines back. Solar energy would play a very important part in future for providing power to industrial units, cars, houses, transport, communication rather then fossil fuels, and world would become much safer place to live in. becauses there would be no threat of recession anymore once we shift from a fossil fuel based world economy to fossil fuel free economy in future.

probably in coming 20 years there would be gradual shift from the way we fulfill our energy demands today, middle east countries would be dependent on others (in contrast with today).. they would have very few sources of income in future for sure once the fossil fuels are only available in museums in future. so i can see that the world economy has to now shift to fossil fuel free economy as soon as possible .

India's top 10 business houses/groups list

Following is the list of top 10 business houses of india when we see market capitalisation and net yearly turnover, the list is in descending order starting from biggest business house Reliance industries ltd



Rank 1 - Reliance Group led by Mukesh Ambani

net worth : 1,60,992 crores

Rank 2 - Tata Group led by ratan Naval tata

net worth : 1,23,176 crores

Rank 3 - ADAG Group led by Anil D Ambani

net worth : 89, 129 crores

Rank 4 - Bharti Group led by Sunil Bharti Mittal

net worth - 74, 500 crores

Rank 5 - Wipro group led by Azim Premji

net worth : 65,731 crores

Rank 6 - Sterlite Industries

net worth : 61,584 crores

Rank 7 - Delhi Land Finance (DLF Group)

net worth : 56,027 crores

Rank 8 - Om Prakash Jindal Group (JSW)

net worth : 41,487 crores

Rank 9 - ADANI Group

net worth : 27,015 crores

Rank 10 - Aditya Birla Group led by Kumar Mangalam Birla

net worth : 22,129 crores