India ranks second in industrial production among developing countries

India ranks among the top five developing countries in production of six major industrial items, including textiles, motor vehicles, chemicals and basic metals, according to a UN agency UNIDO.

In four out of the six industrial products - textiles, chemicals and chemical products, basic metals and electrical machinery and apparatus - India figures at number two only behind China.

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India's annual growth rate of manufacturing value added (MVA) has risen from 6.9 per cent in the period 2000-2005 to 12.3 per cent between 2005 and 2007, according to the year book of the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO).

It found that the share of MVA in India's gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to 14.8 per cent in 2006 from 13.8 per cent in 2001.

UNIDO found that the developing countries now produced almost 30 per cent of the world MVA compared to 16 per cent in 1990.

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"The increasing share of developing world vis-a-vis industrialised countries is also explained by the shift of location of manufacturing, especially assembling of final products from industrialised countries to developing countries," the UNIDO said.

posted under - industrial production, indian economy, economy of india, indian industrial output, output updates, indian economy updates, economy of india

FDI to remain robust - Goldman Sachs

The global economic slowdown will not affect the foreign direct investment (FDI) flow to India as the domestic demand remains "resilient", investment banker Goldman sachs said on Monday.

"FDI is showing positive signals," Tushar Poddar, an economist with Goldman Sachs said, adding: "We expect FDI inflows to remain significant in 2009-10, given India's relatively resilient domestic demand momentum."

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According to the bank, the FDI flow to India during September-January - the months when the credit crisis was at its peak - amounted to $9.2 billion, higher than $7.9 billion in the corresponding period last year.

Pranjul Bhandari, another economist at Goldman, said: "India's balance of payments (BOP) may have had its worst quarter in October-December 2009, when it showed a deficit of $18 billion."

"NRI deposits showed an uptick last fiscal, but we expect it to remain flat in 2009-10. We expect NRI deposits coming due in the next year ($32 billion) to get rolled over to a large extent, but do not expect large fresh inflows," he added.

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External commercial borrowings (ECBs) are expected to moderate in in the current fiscal. Although ECBs have slowed to $9.1 billion during September-February from $11.8 billion in the previous six months.

"In 2009-10, we expect ECBs to remain positive due to higher growth and yields in India, notwithstanding the $7 billion of outstanding commercial loans coming due," Bhandari said.

Private remittances from Indians working abroad slowed to $4.3 billion in the October-December quarter from $7.9 billion in the July-September quarter.

"We expect this to remain weak, but do not expect much further weakness from current levels," she said.

Bhandari added that the merchandise trade deficit had fallen to $5 billion in February from a peak of $14 billion in August.

Posted under - FDI in india, indian economy updates, economy of india, recession and indian economy, Indian FDI, foreign direct investment in india, India FDI, FDI updates
source - www.economictimes.com

G20 Nations agree to trilion dollar financial plan for lifting global economy

G20 summit updates April 2009- World leaders agreed a trillion-dollar deal on Thursday to combat the deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression.

At a G20 summit, they also signed off on plans to commission blacklists of tax havens and tighten financial rules to bring hedge funds and credit rating agencies under closer supervision.

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"This is the day that the world came together, to fight back against the global recession. Not with words but a plan for global recovery and for reform and with a clear timetable," British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the summit host, said.

World markets reacted positively. The index of top European shares was up 5 percent after Japan's Nikkei gained 4.4 percent. On Wall Street, the Nasdaq was up 4 percent and the Dow Jones 3.6 percent.

Brown said that while there were "no quick fixes," the decisions meant that "we can shorten the recession and we can save jobs."

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French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the results were beyond what could have been imagined.

Addressing a key demand from France and Germany, Brown said the leaders agreed "there will be an end to tax havens that do not transfer information on request. The banking secrecy of the past must come to an end."

He said leaders agreed to commit new resources of 1 trillion dollars that are available to the world economy through the International Monetary Fund and other institutions.

This included 250 billion dollars of IMF reserve units called Special Drawing Rights. "This is available to all IMF members," Brown said. In addition, the IMF would see its own resources tripled, with up to $500 billion of new funds.

The G20 also agreed a trade finance package worth $250 billion over two years to support global trade flows.

posted under - G20 updates, G20 2009, G20 summit updates, economic recession updates, economic crises updates, world economies updates, G20 meeting

India's Apr-Feb 2008-09 exports at $156 bn

India's exports in the April to February period reached $156 billion and are expected to touch $170-175 billion in fiscal 2009/10, Commerce Secretary G.K. Pillai said on Friday.

"We will be lucky if we touch the $170 billion target (this fiscal year)," Pillai said referring to the slowdown in exports due to the global economic crisis.

Govt released the trade data for february yesterday.

posted under - exports of india, indian exports, export data from india, Indian economy updates, economy of india, effect of recession, indian exports

India Economy Updates - Govt introduces LLP business structure

India today introduced a new kind of business structure, Limited Liability Partnership (LLP), a form of entity where the partners' liability is limited to the extent of their stake which will specially benefit the services sector.

The LLP Act, was passed by the Parliament and given assent by the President Pratibha Patil, was notified today after being approved by the Election Commission to do so, sources in the Ministry of Corporate Affairs told PTI.

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Rules under the Act were also notified today. The Act will specially benefit the service sector by providing a platform to professionals like chartered accountants and company secretaries to come together to form an LLP and provide a single-window shop to all people wanting to avail professional services.

The LLP is a hybrid of partnership firms and companies. It is a separate legal entity and the partners have the advantage of being liable to the extent of their shareholding in the entity. The software, a part of the government's e-governance programme MCA 21, for incorporating and formation of the company has been prepared and the new LLPs will register online, sources added.

posted under - LLP act, LLP, indian LLP act , LLP act 2009, Limited Liability Partenership, LLP in india, Indian Economy updates, economy of india

ग्रोथ ओवर ८ परसेंट सुस्तैनाब्ले - RBI

The Reserve Bank of India expects the economy's growth rate to bounce back above 8 per cent once the current global economic and financial turmoil passes, Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan said today.

"Our overall assessment is still an 8 per cent-plus growth is sustainable in the medium term. We can expect to come back to 8 per cent-plus growth once this interregnum is over," Mohan told a news conference.

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The government expects the economy to grow about 7 per cent in the fiscal year that ends on March 31, well below rates of 9 per cent or more in the previous three fiscal years.

Mohan said India would be cautious in moving towards fuller capital account convertibility for the rupee currency.

"We have also looked at the fuller capital account convertibility and concluded its desirable, but we need to move with caution," he concluded.

posted under - RBI updates, Indian Economy updates, economy oeconomy, recession and indian economy, economy of india, india economy

Economic Crises leads to delay in Financial Reforms - Report

Pressure to support India's economy and drive growth during the global economic and financial crisis could impede efforts to put the country's fiscal house in order, a report by the government and central bank said on Monday.

"Given the current pressures to maintain growth at a reasonably high level it would not be possible to resume the fiscal correction path after the current financial turmoil," the report on the country's financial sector said.

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The report said that once the current turmoil had passed, fiscal discipline needed to be reasserted to support growth.

"For the growth momentum to be sustained, it is necessary to return to the path of fiscal prudence at both the central and state governments," the report said. The federal government's finances have suffered in the 2008/09 fiscal year that ends on March 31, after making solid gains over the past few years, as a slowing economy has hit revenues and increased spending.

The government expects the deficit to widen to 6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008/09, more than double its initial estimate. Analysts say the country's combined deficit, including state deficits and off-budget items such as fuel subsidy costs, is around 10 per cent.

The six-volume report is a comprehensive review of the country's financial system. The committee that prepared it was formed by the government and central bank in 2006, and was headed by Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan.

posted under - Indian economy updates, Crises, Economy of india, Indian Economy, Economic reforms, Indian economy blog, india finance updates
source -www.economictimes.com

MS Ahluwalia predicts economy growth at 6.5%

The Planning Commission on Tuesday said the economy will grow by 6.5 per cent during the current fiscal, much below the 7.1 per cent projected by the government last month.

"Growth this year will be around 6.5 per cent and the name of the game next year will be to repeat that performance," Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said here.

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Pointing out that additional stimulus, over and above what was announced in the Interim Budget, would be required to push growth, he said, "it will be a major achievement (to achieve growth of 6.5 per cent in 2009-10)".

Ruling out the possibility of sustained inflation in the backdrop of steps being taken by the Reserve Bank and the government, Ahluwalia said, "Low inflation gives us a lot of room in (the) next six months to use all available instruments to ensure growth picks up."

posted under - indian economy updates, economy of india, MS Ahluwalia , economic crises updates, indian economy, economics of india

World Trade Organization predicts 9% drop in global trade

Economic contraction in most of the industrial world and steep export declines already posted in the early months of this year by most major economies, particularly those in Asia, makes for an unusually bleak 2009 trade assessment the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said in a statement.

The contraction in the developed countries will be severe with exports falling by 10 per cent this year, WTO said, adding that in developing countries, which are far more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some 2- 3 per cent in 2009, it said.

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"The collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades will drive exports down by roughly 9 per cent in volume terms in 2009," it said. This is the first decline in total world production since the 1930s, it said.

"As demand falls sharply, overall, trade will fall even further. The depleted pool of funds available for trade finance has contributed to the significant decline in trade flows, in particular in developing countries," WTO Director General Pascal Lamy said.

...well according to me it will be more then 9% for sure.

posted under - WTO updates, global economy updates, World trade organization, world economy, WTO news

Indian Govt issues INR 10,000 crores worth Oil Bonds

March 23/09 - The Special Bonds are being issued at par to Indian Oil Corporation (Rs 5812 crore), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (Rs 2144 crore) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (Rs 2038 crore) on March 23, 2009, Monday.

Investment in these special bonds by the banks and insurance companies willnot be considered as eligible as an investment in government securities for their statutory requirements.But such investment by the insurance companies will be eligible to be reckoned as investment under "other Approved Securities" category as defined under Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Investment) Regulations, 2000.

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The investment by the Provident Funds, Gratuity Funds, Superannuation Funds, etc. in these special bonds will be treated as an eligible investment under the administrative order of the Ministry of Finance. The Special Bonds will be transferable and eligible for repo transactions.

posted under - Indian Economy updates, oil sector updates, oil bonds, indian economy updates, economy of india, recession updates, indian oil PSU's Indian oil, hindustan petroleum updates

World Bank President predicts 2009 as "VERY DANGEROUS"

(World Economy Updates) - World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned on Saturday of the consequences of an expected steep decline in economic growth across the world this year.

"I think 2009 is going to be a very dangerous year," Zoellick told a conference in Brussels, citing World Bank forecasts of a spike in infant mortality associated with the economic crisis, and a fall-off in world trade.

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Zoellick proposed that the Group of 20 major and emerging economies -- whose leaders are due to meet in London next month -- establish a review process to see whether further stimulus measures would be needed to kickstart recovery.

posted under - world economy updates, recession news, economic crises updates, economy of world, 2009 predictions, economic crises of 2009

Wholesale Inflation at all time low of 0.44 percent

Inflation for the week ended March 7 fell to an all time low of 0.44%. The sharp fall in inflation was due to several factors including easing prices of food articles and fuel items along with a high base effect. Annual inflation as measured by Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was at 2.42% in the week before and at 7.78% in the corresponding week last year.

The inflation for food articles eased considerably to 7.34%. It had touched a 10-year high of 11.64% in the beginning of the year. Prices of food articles for the week ended March 7 touched the lowest since the beginning of the year.

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The sharp fall in annual inflation as measured by fuel index was due to fall in prices of jet fuel and electricity for agriculture each of which fell by 8%. The fuel prices are currently witnessing negative inflation to the range of 6% and are expected to dip further into negative territory.

The higher base effect along with low demand in the economy is expected to keep inflation in negative territory for 5 to 6 months." Inflation will turn negative starting from April and will remain so until the end of 2009," said Tushar Poddar, an economist with Goldman Sachs Inc. in Mumbai. "We expect the Reserve Bank to ease liquidity" to support growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said this week India should rely more on monetary policy to support the economy as high public debt makes fiscal efforts difficult.

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Retail inflation as measured by the consumer price index for industrial workers has moved up to 10.45% in January, the highest since December 1998. The consumer-price index for farm workers increased 11.62% in January from a year earlier, following an 11.14% in December. The central bank said this month consumer prices will decline after a lag, without specifying a time frame.

The commerce ministry today revised the rate for the week to Jan. 10 to 5.46 percent from 5.60%.

posted under - inflation updates, indian economy blog, economy of india, indian inflation updates, march inflation updates, economic crises updates

Economy may grow 6.5-7 pc in next fiscal year - (09-10)

The economy may expand between 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent in the year to March 2010, as stimulus measures are expected to revive growth, a member of Planning Commission said on Wednesday. Abhijit Sen, however, said there was need for more fiscal and monetary steps to maintain growth momentum in Asia's third largest economy hit by global slump and sluggish domestic demand.

"We have done a worst-case calculation on the basis of no effect of the stimulus and what we know currently about the world economy. On that basis, the worst case scenario is about 5 per cent growth," he said after a business conference.

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But the stimulus packages already announced were expected to ratchet up growth rate by 1.5 to 2 percentage points over and above the minimum assessment, he said. "That would take the growth rate to 6.5 to 7 per cent." Earlier, the government estimated 2008/09 growth at 7.1 per cent, but analysts have raised doubts after December quarter data showed a lower-than-expected 5.3 per cent expansion and the global economic situation worsened.

May be this prediction might be lowered down in later half of 2009 as the condition doesn't seem to improve in near future. who know's??

posted under - Indian economy blog, indian economy updates, economy of india, economic crises updates

IMF to India - more monetary steps required for fighting slowdown

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) on Wednesday advised India to initiate more monetary steps to battle the country's slowing economic growth, which the international multilateral agency expects to moderate to 6.25 per cent in the current fiscal and fall further by one percentage point in 2009-10.

With inflation softening to a six-year low of 2.43 per cent, there is scope for further easing of monetary policy, the IMF said in its review of the economy following Article IV consultations with the Indian authorities.

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"A number of (IMF) directors saw scope for further monetary easing, in (the) light of the projected decline in inflationary pressures and the need to reinforce confidence and sustain bank credit," the review said.

The IMF expects average inflation to moderate to 2 per cent in 2009-10 from about 8.8 per cent in the current fiscal. Inflation has been coming down consistently after touching a peak of 12.91 per cent in August last year.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the current fiscal has been projected at 6.25 per cent by the IMF, as against the government's forecast of 7.1 per cent.

The IMF expects the growth rate in the next fiscal (2009-10), beginning less than a fortnight from now, to fall to 5.25 per cent. As part of the annual exercise to review the economies of the member countries, the IMF's executive board had held consultations with the Indian authorities on February 6.

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While suggesting that India focus on monetary measures, the IMF cautioned that additional expenditure and more tax reliefs for fighting economic slowdown could raise public debt to unsustainable levels.

Noting that the key short-run policy objective should be to sustain liquidity and credit flows, the review said "monetary and structural policies will have to continue to carry most of the burden of adjustment".

And already the fiscal deficit of india has increased many times and government is still giving more sops to business houses and people just to get a WOW factor ahead of 15th general elections.

posted under - Economic crises updates, indian economy updates, economy of india, indian economy blog

India and China better then other bric countries

The global economic downturn has not left the emerging countries unscathed with India and China witnessing moderation in their economic growths, but experts believe the two countries are holding on relatively well among other developing nations.

According to a latest report by leading brokerage firm Sharekhan, "Asian emerging markets too are facing their own share of economic moderation owing to weakness in external trade, foreign inflows and economic sentiment. Importantly, India is holding on well, though the GDP growth has moderated to 5.3 per cent year-on-year (for Q3FY2009) compared with 7.6 per cent in Q2FY2009."

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Experts believe that though the fastest-growing economies of China and India have suffered some moderation, they are showing much more endurance than the other two countries in the BRIC pack - Brazil and Russia.

"Among the BRIC countries, India and China are relatively showing resilience as they are still reflecting GDP growth rates as high as six per cent to eight per cent," SMC Capitals equity head Jagannadham Thunuguntla said.

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Angel Broking Research Head Hitesh Agrawal also believes that India and China are relatively well-placed compared with Brazil and Russia, evident from the contractions witnessed in the latter two over the last six-eight quarters.

with extracts from economic times
posted under - indian economic updates, indian economy, bric countries, economy of india, economic slowdown and india