Deflation is not a threat for India

India is not threatened by a deflation spiral that could derail economic development, the economic intelligence arm of global rating agency Moody's said today.

"Deflation is generally unwelcome by policymakers as it encourages consumers to delay purchases and businesses to postpone investment, which would eventually hurt GDP growth," Sherman Chan, an economist with Moody's Economy.com said.

"Lower prices may in fact boost consumption volumes, especially in poor regions. Meanwhile, cheaper input costs may also present a good opportunity to speed up construction of much needed infrastructure," Chan addded.

For the first time since the new wholesale price index (WPI) series started in 1995, India's annual rate of inflation has turned negative, falling to minus 1.61 percent for the week ended June 6. This has led to fears that this would lead to hoarding of food articles and a consequent rise in prices.

The inflation rate, which was 0.13 percent in the previous week, had last turned negative in 1977.

Threat of Deflation rises for the world

Developing countries, including China and India, are showing signs of economic cooling on account of the cascading effect of the globaldownturn.

India's industrial growth unexpectedly turning negative in October, shrinking by 0.4 percent after expanding by 12.2 per cent in the same month a year earlier, hint at the worsening conditions for the economy.

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Given the deepening global recession, the threat of deflationary spiral is mounting which may fix the global economy in similar lines of the great depression in 1930s. Even as analysts and economists feel that the governments have managed to rescue the global economy from a deflationary spiral by extending deposit guarantees and recapitalizing banks who suffered losses, attempts to artificially reducing interest rates to support prices are extremely ephemeral measures.

"They may appeal as a quick fix, defending banks from further losses. Artificially supporting prices removes the stimulatory effect that lower prices have on new investment. Instead of a V-shaped bottom followed by a speedy recovery, you may end up with an L-shaped depression," said Bred Jonathan, consulting partner at Kreg and Bordan Economic Advisory.

We often hear economists or analysts refer to the threat of deflation. Deflation is a natural function of the market to correct excesses from a boom. The boom normally ends when the central bank stops new money creation, which was used to synthetically stimulate the economy.

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Source www.economictimes.com - read full article

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