Rupee posts biggest fall in a decade v/s US $

The rupee posted its biggest fall in a decade on Tuesday, hit by risk aversion and banks arbitraging a weaker offshore rate, although suspected central bank intervention stopped the slide just short of 47 per dollar.

The partially convertible rupee ended at 46.89/90 per dollar, off a trough of 46.99 which was its lowest since July 24, 2006.

The rupee fell 1.8 percent from its close of 46.05/06 on Monday, its biggest fall since May 14, 1998, according to Reuters daya, when the currency fell 2 percent after sanctions were imposed on India for its nuclear testing. One-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts were quoting at 47.15/25, weaker than the onshore rate, indicating a bearish near-term outlook for the rupee.

That also created an arbitrage opportunity, where the dollar is bought against the rupee in the onshore market and sold in the offshore NDF market to exploit the price differential. "There are no (dollar) sellers in the market apart from the central bank. There is lot of oil, equity and NDF-related dollar demand, and even importers are covering near-term imports," said Madhusudan Somani, associate director of financial markets at Yes Bank.

"The rupee may test 47.20-25 levels in the near term," he added. Dealers said the central bank was seen selling dollars to halt the rupee's sharp decline, but sales were offset by demand for the US currency. At its low on Tuesday, the rupee was down 6.5 percent in September and more than 16 percent in 2008. Dealers estimated the central bank had sold $1.5-$2 billion to put a floor under the rupee on Tuesday.

Indian shares pulled out from a nosedive to end almost level on Tuesday after they had opened down 3.5 percent. Capital outflows from the local shares so far in 2008 total a net $8.4 billion, including $1 billion in September, a sharp turnaround from a record net inflows of $17.4 billion in 2007.

Traders said broad strength in the dollar versus other currencies overseas was also hurting sentiment on the rupee. The dollar steadied near 4-month lows versus the yen on Tuesday, but held gains against high yielders as investors took refuge in safe-haven assets following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Indian economy not likely to slowdown - Lehman Brothers

Anti-inflationary measures are unlikely to turn India into a slow growing economy, while other Asian nations could face the situation of rising prices and economic stagnation, a latest report says. "We do not believe that India would be affected significantly in a stagflation scenario and growth would remain strong in relative terms...," global research firm Lehman Brothers said in a recent research report.

However, even as the economic growth is projected to remain strong, interest-rate sensitive stocks could be adversely impacted during stagflation situation in Asia. Stagflation refers to a situation when inflation is rising and the economic growth is simultaneously slowing down. The negative impact is likely be felt by interest rate-sensitive stocks or by companies that are not in a position to pass on cost pressures to consumers, Lehman said.

Further, investment spending is unlikely to witness a substantial slowdown primarily on account of significant shortages in key sectors such as steel and power. The report pointed out that risks out of a stagflation scenario would be high for the banking sector, infrastructure, automobile and cement firms. "The risks are significant for part of the banking sector, companies with a high proportion of fixed-price contracts and companies with high energy usage without the ability to pass on increased costs," it said.

Lehman noted that in India inflation would remain on the higher side for some more time due to the base effect -- which relates to the inflation data of the corresponding week in the previous year. Given particular prices in the current week, inflation would turn out to be higher, if it was a small number in the previous year, but would be less, if it was high a year ago. In addition, the report said that inflationary headwinds would lead to increased fiscal deficit and negatively impact the country's expansion plans. "One of the major reasons for India's premium expansion has been the reduction in fiscal deficit, a process which could be derailed in the short term due to inflationary headwinds," it added.

The government has initiated fiscal and monetary measures to lessen the effects of inflation on consumers. However, according to the report, some of these measures does not reflect the "true market economics." "If the inflation period is prolonged, we expect the government to start passing on some of the suppressed price increases (especially those relating to crude oil and fertilisers) in small doses. However, we do not expect this anytime soon, given the proximity of the elections, the report pointed out.

- economic times