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Indian Economic summit being held at New Delhi has clearly reflected unease due to current economic crises which all started as mortgage crises in mid of this year when US financial institutions failed and became bankrupt especially Investment banks of USA. However Indian finance minister P. Chitambaram was hopeful for a revival of economic situation prevalent in world and would have more affect on Indian economy in 2009 as told by earlier post (read post now).
the highlights of Indian Economic Summit(24th edition) can be summed as below:
The ill-effects of a recession in the US and an overall global economic downturn weighed heavily in the minds of corporate leaders, even though many felt that India, with its high growth rate, even if slowing, was better equipped than many others to tide over the situation.
“This recession threatens to be a longer and deeper recession affecting most industrialised countries and we in India are experiencing the spill-over effects of what is happening in advanced countries,” Finance Minister said.
“While world output will decline - and to that extent affect our exports, affect some capital inflows, affect external credits - we must be able to quickly substitute or compensate for that by stimulating domestic demand and providing liquidity in the domestic market” Chidambaram said.
“Let us assume that for another month or two there will be further bad news, but even then we will grow at a satisfactory growth rate. Next year we will bounce back to a much better growth rate.”
The Indian economy is predicted by various think tanks and the central bank to grow at between 7-8 percent this year.
But the corporate sector remained apprehensive, having to contend with a demand slowdown, mounting inventories, higher input costs, rising cost of borrowings, depreciating rupee, volatile capital markets, lower profits if not losses, and resisting the unpleasant task of job cuts.
“There is a crisis of confidence,” said K.V. Kamath, president of the event's co-host, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and managing director of ICICI Bank, India's largest in the private sector.
“There is an urgent need to boost public confidence in the fundamentals of the economy for a recovery to take place,” said Kamath, adding: “I am also the first to concede that there is a change of mood to the other end of the spectrum."
Last year, the mood was entirely different. The Indian economy was racing ahead with the nine-percent-plus growth, exports were booming, inflation was moderate, the markets were on an upswing and corporate India was rolling in profits.
As a result, this year's event saw few participants talk about the need for the government to push ahead with reforms, the need to spruce up infrastructure or the need to liberalise foreign direct investment regime further.
Their focus was clear: The US economy was in recession, which had spilled over to some European counties as well, and that Japan, the world's second largest economy, was now adding to the depressing news with a confirmed recession.
Yet, not all participants agreed with the gloom and doom theory being propagated by some stakeholders, especially in the backdrop of a 50-percent-plus fall in a key equity market index and falling corporate profits.
“I'm hearing concern expressed here about six percent growth. In the West, that growth would be considered quite fantastic," said James Quigley, chief executive of the US-based accounting giant Deloitte, among an estimated 700 delegates from 35 countries.
From the managing director of Asian Development Bank Rajat M. Nag to World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab, and from Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to India's Commerce Minister Kamal Nath, all maintained that the Indian economy was resilient enough to tide over the crisis.
And it was this underlying sentiment that Chidambaram sought to highlight while asking India Inc not to panic and assuring that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and the central bank would take all necessary steps to minimise the impact of global crisis on India.
"The classic response to demand slowdown is to cut prices for the short-term," he told participating industrialists, while calling specifically upon airlines, realtors, automobile makers and consumer durables companies to lower prices to stimulate demand.
“All I ask is, there are enough people to spread gloom and doom. Just have your chin up, and in six-nine months, or maybe 12, we will be back to normal growth rates that we are used to.”
- source Economictimes.com
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Indian Economic Summit - Updates
Friday, November 14, 2008
Cheers!! Inflation down to single digit - November 2008
The inflation rate fell sharply to a near six-month low of 8.98% for the week ended November 1, a drop of almost 4% from its August peak.
The decline is due to less demand in the market for the commodities.The decline, helped by a steep drop in prices of some petroleum products and metals, will provide a welcome relief to the central government reeling under a raft of bad news on the economic front from falling exports and a drop in tax collections. Politically, this could help the government ahead of key state elections later this month.
What others are reading now:
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-Effect of Recession on Indian economy
Inflation as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI) — the most watched inflation measure — dropped 1.74% from 10.72% in the preceding week, official data from the Office of the Economic Advisor in the ministry of commerce and industry showed. It hit a peak of 12.91% in early August, but still remains more than double the 3.35% inflation seen in the same week last year.
“I was surprised by the quantum of fall in the fuel index. After consolidating around this level for coming weeks, I expect the inflation number to drop to the 8% territory by end-November,” said ICRA economist Saumitra Chaudhari and a member of the prime minister’s economic advisory council.
The fall in fuel prices, especially those which are not government-controlled, is expected to have a positive impact for the manufacturing sector, going forward since fuel is a key input cost for industry. For instance, the cost of jet fuel comprises almost 40% of the operational cost of an airline.
What others are reading now:
-Rs v/s US$ latest updates
-World's Strongest economies list
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-Indian Agricultural Updates
-Effect of Recession on Indian economy
Food prices inched up marginally during the period, rising 0.1%, but analysts expected the food articles index to move down in coming weeks, given the forecasts for a robust winter harvest.
Crisil principal economist DK Joshi said that the slowdown in the economy meant that both demand-supply side pressures were easing and inflation would not emerge as a major concern until the overall economic growth revived.
We can also get a cut in fuel prices as government is thinking about a fuel price cut. It may be noted that Crude oil prices have come down to US$ 58 level when compared to $ 147 levels few months back. so more drop in inflation is predicted by me in coming future due to possible fuel price cut by indian government.
What others are reading now:
-Rs v/s US$ latest updates
-World's Strongest economies list
-Trouble in Indian Forex
-Indian Agricultural Updates
-Effect of Recession on Indian economy
- with extracts from economictimes.com
India Economy would be hit more in 2009 - thanks to Global crises
The global downturn will pressurise the Indian economy more next year and the government has to speed up reforms and boost investment to sustain high growth rates.
The report jointly prepared by World Economic Forum and Confederation of Indian Industry also said India could see a sharp outflow of capital, and a fall in share and asset prices due to the global financial crises. The report was released ahead of the annual India Economic Summit starting Nov. 16 in New Delhi, where top government officials are expected to interact with heads of global firms.
What others are reading now:
-Rs v/s US$ latest updates
-World's Strongest economies list
-Trouble in Indian Forex
-Indian Agricultural Updates
-Effect of Recession on Indian economy
"India's dependence on capital flows to finance its current account deficit is a macroeconomic risk and the global crisis could generate a sharp increase in capital outflows and a reduction in the availability of finance,Clearly, the global economic picture will be harsher next year and there will be greater pressures on Indian economy." it said
"It (global crisis) could also weaken the balance sheets of the financial institutions, cause a further fall in share and asset prices, and challenge the macroeconomic situation due to shrinking global growth," WEF said.
Indian policymakers expect a moderation in economic growth to less than 8 percent in the year to March 2009, compared with 9 percent recorded in 2007/08 fiscal year.
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh cautioned that the global financial crisis could be more severe and prolonged, and the government would take all necessary steps monetary and fiscal to protect growth.
"A tighter environment may also help speed reforms and encourage greater efficiency," WEF said, adding a great deal of political will and dialogue with
What others are reading now:
-Rs v/s US$ latest updates
-World's Strongest economies list
-Trouble in Indian Forex
-Indian Agricultural Updates
-Effect of Recession on Indian economy
different stakeholders would be required to take reforms forward.
However India economy will be less affected when compared to global economies. The growth of Indian economy would be strong for coming decade that's for sure.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Rupee may return to strength by early to mid 2010
Worried over the sharp depreciation of the rupee? Here's some solace for you. Risk management consultancy major Mecklai Financial has predicted the rupee will begin to rise again by late 2009 and could return to strength by early to mid 2010.
In its latest research report, Mecklai has said that capital flows will take some time to return to 'normal'. However, "we believe that by late 2009, we should see investment flows resume, which should be the trigger for some modest strength in the rupee ...which could return to strength by early to mid 2010."
Even today "the silver lining for India is that the sharp depreciation of the rupee has rendered exports much more competitive. So, too, the dramatic fall in oil will make the trade balance much more manageable," the report says.
Of course, capital flows remain a major negative for the rupee. After having more than quadrupled to $108bn over the previous two years, capital inflows are expected to fall to $31bn in 2008-09. Portfolio flows are forecast to decrease by $10bn, as compared to an increase of $29bn in the previous fiscal, while borrowings are expected to fall from $41bn to $15bn. FDI has been the only bright spot this year, doubling to $10bn for Apr-Aug 2008; despite the crisis, the net figure should easily surpass last year's level of $15bn.
However, with equity prices having fallen 60% this year, as a result of which many, many companies are cheap even compared to their cash assets, and the credit market slowly on its way to normalcy, "we would expect capital flows to begin to show improvement by the second half of 2009," the report says.
The RBI's recent decision to reverse all restrictions it had placed on ECBs, NRI deposits, and FII flows through participatory notes is timely and will boost flows as and when the environment improves. Interestingly, one of the fallouts of this crisis is that "we will have a more liberal external account when the smoke clears."
Of course, the overall balance of payments is expected to be negative in fiscal 2009 and has already resulted in a substantial drawdown of reserves. However, in view of the factors listed above, "we believe fiscal 2010 should see a surplus of around $20bn, which should support a return to a modestly stronger rupee," the report says.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Rs v/s US $ - November 2008 - daily updates
Indian economy trends are very important for those who are into economic analysis in India, Indian National rupee popularly known as INR in international market is following a downward trend due to global financial turbulance. As volume of US dollars (USD) in international markets is on a decline so the value of US $ is growing up, well indian IT industrycan feel better to some extent and is the only industry which would be getting a plus from current market scenario.
The post would include (US$ v/$ rupee) daily trends the rate shown of Indian rupee would be as displayed at time of stock markets closure(mainly BSE and NSE) you can also see daily Stock market live rates and closing rates.
INR(Indian National rupee) v/s US$ November trends/updates are as follows:
format for display of rs v/s $ would be in following order:
(date RS v/s $ rate Daily trends updates Remarks with respect to US $)
(November 28,2008) | RS v/s $ | 49.85 | Up^0.12 | grew stronger by 12 paise/US $
(November 25,2008) | RS v/s $ | 50.09 | Down(-0.06) | weaker by 6 paise/US$
(November 24,2008) | RS v/s $ | 50.03 | Up^0.49 | grew stronger by 0.49 paise
(November 21,2008) | RS v/s $ | 50.52 | Down(-0.78) | weaker by 78 paise/US$
(November 20,2008) | RS v/s $ | 49.74 | Down(-0.06) | weaker by 06 paise/US$
(November 19,2008) | RS v/s $ | 49.68 | Down(-0.69) | weaker by 69 paise/US$
(November 18,2008) | RS v/s $ | 48.99 | Up^0.47 | grew stronger by 0.47 paise
(November 17,2008) | RS v/s $ | 49.46 | Up^0.67 | grew stronger by 0.67 paise
(November 14,2008) | RS v/s $ | 48.79 | - | No change wrto previous day
(November 13,2008) | RS v/s $ | 48.79 | Down(-1.20) | weaker by 120 paise/US$
(November 12,2008) | RS v/s $ | 47.59 | Down(-0.27) | weaker by 27 paise
(November 11,2008) | RS v/s $ | 47.32 | Up^0.44 | grew stronger by 0.44 paise
(November 7,2008) | RS v/s $ | 47.68 | Down(-0.50) | weaker by 50 paise
(November 6,2008) | RS v/s $ | 47.18 | Up^1.44 | grew stronger by 144 paise
(November 5,2008) | RS v/s $ | 48.62 | Up^0.34 | grew stronger by o.34 paise
(November 4,2008) | RS v/s $ | 48.96 | Up^0.29 | Rupee became stronger by 2%
(November 3,2008) | RS v/s $ | 49.25 |Up^0.00 | No change
Also see:
October 2008 Rs v/s US $ trends
Saturday, November 1, 2008
India Economy Updates-November 2008
Agriculture Updates, Infrastructure updates, updates on foreign trade, india economy updates, indian rupee updates all in one post.
India Economy Updates November 2008 are as follows:(just click on the link to read full story) Foreign trade updates, Infrastructure updates, India Agriculture updates, India Economy updates, India Economic Policy updates, Finance sector updates all in a single post now isn't that great post on India Economy updates!!
Latest India Economy, India business news updates:
US recession and effect on India -
Live BSE, NSE, DJIA, NASDAQ rates
World's rchest and strongest economy list
25th-November-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
New telecom operators can't sell stakes for three years: Government
Government imposes curbs on import of more steel items
Light Is Right: Reforms to rid corporates of bulky statements
Govt says RBI's bias towards growth may deepen
Russia bundles Imperial buy with SAIL orders
Breakthrough in WTO talks possible this year: US official
Canada and Colombia sign a free trade agreement
Transport sop hits dead end
C&C Constructions bags order worth Rs 635 cr
Agriculture growth likely to stay at 4%: Sharad Pawar
22nd,23rd,24th-November-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
Govt readies Rs 50,000 crore for infrastructure projects
Govt may not opt for financial package
Investment firms may get FDI push
Govt says RBI's bias towards growth may deepen
Subbarao to meet bank CEOs
RBI to open Rs 20,000 cr special refinance window for SMEs
Breakthrough in WTO talks possible this year: US official
Canada and Colombia sign a free trade agreement
Logjam in global trade: Ports become parking lots
C&C Constructions bags order worth Rs 635 cr
IVRCL Infra bags orders worth Rs 530 cr
Akzo Nobel to invest Rs 90 cr in new plant in India
Agriculture growth likely to stay at 4%: Sharad Pawar
Agri sector may not create more jobs
Farmers turning entrepreneurs for greener pastures
20th,21st-November-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
Eco adviser says reforms needed to sustain growth
Indira Gandhi's vision saved us from current financial crisis: Sonia Gandhi
Will employ all policy tools to fight crisis: PM
Foreign borrowings aplenty for India Inc despite turmoil
Adopt uniform definition for policy lapsation: IRDA
FDI in credit info cos likely to go up to 49%
India Tajikistan ink DTAA
WTO meet to begin next week
Malaysia, India to develop mutual capital market investment
Metro man Sreedharan putting India on fast track
Alternative network for defence to be completed by 2011: DoT
19th,November-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
RBI asks banks to seek refinance credit to fund small units
Govt to raise spending on infrastructure
Government changes customs duty on steel, soyoil
Better deal soon for prospective miners
Grim outlook for FDI: OECD
NHB may help construct more roofs for aam aadmi
Malaysia, India to develop mutual capital market investment
UK companies look to India to help offset economic gloom
Shield jobs to get bigger export incentive shield
18th,November-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
Govt imposes 5% import duty on steel
New urea policy loses sheen with sharp fall in global prices
RBI watching economy, to act at right time: Subbarao
RBI may consider fresh liquidity steps to propel growth: Mohan
Cut excise duties, interest rates to drive demand: CII
Financial crisis: Calling for unity in adversity
PM panel reviews export incentive pack
Exporters to UK feel the heat of falling British currency
Cane crushing begins on sour price note
Crisis forces SEZ developers to review plans
17th,November-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
PE inflows dip 72 pc amid global credit crisis
RBI allows housing finance cos to raise funds from overseas
RBI committed to maintaining liquidity flow
LIC may get to invest more in corporate debt
Crisis forces SEZ developers to review plans
Shanghai to invest $73 bn on development
15th,November-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
Hypothetical tax paid abroad not income: ITAT
Cement, steel included in focus market scheme
Treat Repo, Reverse Repo as borrowed & lent: RBI
Recession in West, Australia reaches out to India
Govt feels outsourcing won't be an issue in ties with US
Edible oil imports jump 19% on lower global price
'Delayed mega infra projects are sub-standard, not NPAs'
PM approves Rs 300 cr special grant for IGCC Vijaywada plant
14th,November-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
Oil slips below $58 despite stock rally
D&B expects RBI to cut key rates by 50 bps
Long way for China, India to shield world from downturn
Centre puts brakes on edible oil import for PDS after prices crash in global mkts
GVKPIL to sell 49% in SPV to Macquarie for Rs 465 cr
Seed farming for jatropha may be banned
13th,November-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
Govt likely to clarify stand on KG-D6 gas price tomorrow
Govt should re-impose import duty on steel: Roongta
India to strengthen rural tourism
Banks want to have a LAF as liquidity woes continue
India Inc warms up to Japanese cos
Traders hit as short-term credit rates stay high
GVKPIL to sell 49% in SPV to Macquarie for Rs 465 cr
November 12-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
Govt to consider fuel price cut if crude stabilises: Deora
Govt may cut fuel price if crude, currency stabilise
RBI may cut rates again by March: ICICI Securities
EPFO defers plans to withdraw SDS deposits
RBI offers Rs 50,650 crore at special repo
PSUs protest parking 60% fund in PSBs
Traders hit as short-term credit rates stay high
Right policy paradigm for natural assets abroad
Reliance SEZ to be built on Mumbai debris
Financial crisis to hit agricultural production: FAO
November 10,11-2008 India Economy Updates are as follows:
Govt watching cheap steel imports; decision on import duty soon
FIPB no to treaty shopping clamp on FDI
Govt may ask cos to set up grievance redressal panel
RBI sells state loans for 35.95 bn rupees
Govt asks firms to keep funds with govt-run banks
Pre-paid cards, meal vouchers under RBI lens
Right policy paradigm for natural assets abroad
Exports plunge to five-year low in October
Stainless steel importers oppose import duty; seek FM's help
Maha govt to build 10 lakh houses in two years: Deshmukh
Monmohan Singh seeks infra investments from Qatar
Rs 9521.27 crore paid to farmers for paddy in Punjab
Let wheat export ban stay for now as global prices’re low
Debt-relief package for coffee industry on the anvil
November 8,9-2008 India Economy updates:
AIAI asks for slashing key rates
Foreign cos' services under brand names to be taxable: ITAT
Govt asks RIL to supply LNG to Dabhol power project
After lifting export ban,Govt extends sops on maize export
Slowdown to keep India's exports 20 pc below target: Study
Govt slashes duty on garment imports from Nepal upto 75%
Karnataka eyeing more IT destinations
Financial turmoil may hit farmers: FAO
Area under wheat cultivation up 5%
September infrastructure output up 5.1 pct year/year
Relax ECB norms for infrastructure NBFCs: Srei
November 7,2008 India Economy updates:
Govt levies 8% export tax on iron ore fines
RBI issues guidelines for pre-paid instruments
Social security agreements help remove dead-cost phenonenon
Govt constitutes experts panel to address financial crisis
RBI offers forex liquidity to Indian banks abroad
RBI cuts interest rates on floating housing loans
US financial crisis may hit India's exports in Q4: Deloitte
September infrastructure output up 5.1 pct year/year
Global reputation will help Indian firms grow: Gates
ArcelorMittal approaches West Bengal govt for land
November 5,2008 India Economy updates:
India cbank offers 507.8 bn rupees at special repo
Global crisis could badly hit textile industry
India Inc bargains hard for more on bulk deposits in crunch time
Global cotton exports may fall by over 6 pc in 2008-09
Govt turns major cotton buyer as polls draw near
November 4,2008 India Economy updates:
Overseas loans may get costlier next year
PSBs to thaw credit lifeline for NBFCs
India to ease foreign direct investment rules: Kamal Nath
India to provide Rs 49.17 mn assistance to Nepal
PSU banks agree to cut rates; shares soar
November 3 India economy updates:
ICICI Bank to review rates in a few days - CEO
Global crisis impacts India; do everything to push growth:PM
Bharti says no immediate foreign targets
ArcelorMittal approaches West Bengal govt for land
IT SEZs must wait for 100% tax exemption
Foreign firms may get to invest in fertiliser units revival
Bank deposits safe, says Prime Minister
RBI cuts rates to induce Rs 85,000 cr; signals interest cut
RBI cuts CRR, SLR and Repo; lending and deposit rates to fall
Loan waiver could have been handled better: Plan panel member
RBI allows NBFCs to raise up to USD 10 mn in foreign currency
Cabinet clears way for 49% FDI in insurance
WTO ruling on wine duty is a damp squib
Duty cuts to benefit miners, steel companies
IT SEZs must wait for 100% tax exemption
Maharashtra, UP to drag down sugar production
Few takers for FCI wheat tender
Pricey rice to feed on shortage-hit world
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Inflation down at 10.68%
Inflation fell below 11% to 10.68% during the week ended October 18 from 11.07% a week earlier.Earlier, a poll showed that the inflation rate was expected to have eased below 11% in mid-October for the first time in almost five months, thanks to falling commodity prices.
Eleven economists forecast a median 10.82% rise for wholesale price index based inflation rate in the 12 months to October 18, compared with 11.07% a week earlier, the slowest annual rise since late May.
also read:
DJIA, NASDAQ, BSE, NSE october closing rates
World's Strongest and largest economies list
"Everything has fallen," said Kaushik Das, an economist with Kotak Mahindra Bank. "Oil prices fell sharply, the manufacturing index has come down and even the food and commodity prices which were pushing up inflation have started coming down."
The wholesale price index rose 11.07% in the 12 months to October 11, below the earlier week's annual rise of 11.44%. Inflation for the week ended August 16 was revised up to 12.82% from 12.40%.
In early August, the inflation rate had hit 12.91%, the highest reading since annual numbers in the current data series became available in April 1995. It jumped into double digits after a hike in government-controlled retail fuel prices in June.
Also read:
DJIA, NASDAQ, BSE, NSE october closing rates
World's Strongest and largest economies list
Commenting on the current economic scenario, the finance minister recently said that although inflation was still high, the rate of price rise would moderate further as global commodities and fuel prices continue to soften.
The government will also continue to take steps to moderate inflation and cut wasteful expenditure as it expects its fiscal deficit to swell beyond the 2008/09 target, the finance ministry said.
-source economictimes.indiatimes.com
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
India to face 2.5 M tonne diesal shortage
India is likely to face a shortage of 2.5 million tonne of diesel during the November-March period, which would have to be met either through imports or from Reliance Industries' only-for-exports refinery.
"The companies have told us that they will have a deficit of 2.5 million tonne from now till March," Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas Additional Secretary S Sundareshan said here.
State-run Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum have projected a cumulative diesel requirement of 1.05 million tonne for December to March, comprising 2,40,000 tonne of Euro-III diesel and 8,10,000 tonne of Euro-II grade fuel.
If these quantities are not tied up with Reliance, the oil companies would have to turn to imports in order to meet the demand in the country.
However, diesel from Reliance's Jamnagar refinery can be bought only if government does away with double taxation, he said.
Since Jamnagar has turned into an Export-Oriented Unit, any supplies to domestic tariff area was levied with dual basic customs duty and a double levy of special additional excise duty. These duties are over-and-above the normal excise duty payable by any other refinery in the country.
For diesel these work out to Rs 6 a litre more in duties, which the oil companies say they cannot absorb given the fact that they already are losing over Rs 7 a litre on the sale of the fuel.
"The matter is under examination and we hope a decision will be taken (in time)," Sundareshan said.
- source economictimes.indiatimes.com
Monday, October 27, 2008
Rs v/s US $ - Daily updates
Indian National rupee popularly known as INR in international market is following a downward trend due to global financial turbulance. As volume of US dollars (USD) in international markets is on a decline so the value of US $ is growing up, well indian IT industrycan feel better to some extent and is the only industry which would be getting a plus from current market scenario.
The post would include (US$ v/$ rupee) daily trends the rate shown of Indian rupee would be as displayed at time of stock markets closure(mainly BSE and NSE) you can also see daily Stock market live rates and closing rates.
INR(Indian National rupee) v/s US$ October trends/updates are as follows:
format for display of rs v/s $ would be in following order:
(date | RS v/s $ | rate | Daily trends updates)
(October 31,2008) | RS v/s $ | 49.77 | Down(-49.77)
(October 30,2008) | RS v/s $ | 49.67 | Up^0.21
(October 29,2008) | RS v/s $ | 50.09 | Down(-0.14)
(October 27,2008) | RS v/s $ | 49.95 | Down(-0.16)
